donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 At LGA, the 4 km NAM does, in fact, change to rain according to Bufkit. The front end snow ranges from 9.7"-13.1" depending on which algorithm is utilized. The backend snow ranges from 1.6"-1.9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ NAM 00Zrun Critical Thickness 850 line in yellow hrs 30-42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 So now that the nam has ingested data do we still discount it or compact it the the rest of the 0z models The difference isn't in the new data. The difference is the non American models already go neg as the center comes thrs obx the nam is pos tilted. Nothing to do with the northern SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 So now that the nam has ingested data do we still discount it or compact it the the rest of the 0z models Who knows, we have to see what the other 0z models do. It's nice that the NAM is a good run for us, but there are so many other models that are not in agreement with it, and one piece of data isn't necessarily going to change that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 4k nam has 20+ for parts of LI according to weatherbell. Not believable right now... At ISP, the 4 km NAM has front end snow ranging from from 12.0"/12.9" depending on which algorithm is utilized. The backend snow ranges from 2.6"-3.0". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yanksfan check your pm's. I wouldn't put to much stock into the NAM yet, however if the RGEM begins to hop on a similar solution then maybe we have something to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 At ISP, the 4 km NAM has front end snow ranging from from 12.0"/12.9" depending on which algorithm is utilized. The backend snow ranges from 2.6"-3.0". Yea..better algorithms than weatherbell uses. I only posted that because it is ridiculous. They need to fix that in the worst way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Lest anyone forget, the 18z NAM gave the coastal plain a hell of a lot more snow than the 00z, so while it is SE compared to the globals (as they stood at 12z and 18z) it is significantly less snowy along the coast than it was 6 hours ago. Being in Manhattan, I would love for this to be a great GGEM, GFS, Euro 00z run coming up, but honestly, let's temper our hopes a bit to help cut down the emotional aspect of this thread a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Lest anyone forget, the 18z NAM gave the coastal plain a hell of a lot more snow than the 00z, so while it is SE compared to the globals (as they stood at 12z and 18z) it is significantly less snowy along the coast than it was 6 hours ago. Being in Manhattan, I would love for this to be a great GGEM, GFS, Euro 00z run coming up, but honestly, let's temper our hopes a bit to help cut down the emotional aspect of this thread a bit. The 4K Nam brought the Goods relax til we see what the rest of the guidance shows at least Nam did not crumble to 18Z RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 4K Nam brought the Goods relax til we see what the rest of the guidance shows at least Nam did not crumble to 18Z RGEM. Speaking of the rgem it's rolling and out to hr 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yanksfan check your pm's. I wouldn't put to much stock into the NAM yet, however if the RGEM begins to hop on a similar solution then maybe we have something to work with. The problem with the NAM for me is its the only pos tilted trough coming through OBX I am stuck on the idea that this is a beast and I think it should b neg tilted at 500 at hatteras That tucks it in and that's the difference for me. I hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RGEM much east of it's 18z run which was well inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Lest anyone forget, the 18z NAM gave the coastal plain a hell of a lot more snow than the 00z, so while it is SE compared to the globals (as they stood at 12z and 18z) it is significantly less snowy along the coast than it was 6 hours ago. Being in Manhattan, I would love for this to be a great GGEM, GFS, Euro 00z run coming up, but honestly, let's temper our hopes a bit to help cut down the emotional aspect of this thread a bit. It didn't warm up or change much for anyone, really. The kicker pressed down on the low and kept it more progressive, keeping the warm air away until the precip is largely gone. The NAM seems to have a dryslot working in by 18z Thu, which is when a lot of the models warm the NYC area above 0 at 850, so I still think it's possible even on the warmer models that places that mix largely go to a dryslot rather than have heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 00Z RGEM is further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RGEM much east of it's 18z run which was well inland. That's good news. The 18z was just retarded in how amplified and wrapped up it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 rgem has come east….its not into phl…looks like a 984 east of delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 The 00Z RGEM is further east. Good new thats a significant shift back east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks largely like a heavy snow thump to light rain/dryslot and then possible backlash on the RGEM. There's a definite snow/precip min north of the upper low associated snow, so I-81 in PA may be somewhat of a shaft zone on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That's good news. The 18z was just retarded in how amplified and wrapped up it was. Please refrain from using the word retarded. Thanks. It's offensive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nice-about 20mm snow and about 7mm maybe of rain. That would be a huge front end wet snow bomb and then light rain in the dryslot mainly. The back end snow looked like on a good trajectory to clip the area in 6-12 hrs further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Really like seeing the RGEM where it is at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 So far at 0z: 2-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 warms up near the end of its run but winds stay NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 At least it moved east, instead of staying the same or going more inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just fro the looks of it I don't think that thing is done by 48 either, that looks like it would indeed develop a nice CCB from PHL Newrd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That's a pretty significant correction east by the RGEM. Precip shield looks funky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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