NYC/PHL 12/21-12/27 Forecast Threats

[NittanyWx]

I know the trough axis isn't as severe as i drew on the line here, but you get the idea.

For future reference, Ridge axis is typically marked by a zig-zag line. Trough axis by a dashed one.

[tombo82685]

Hey Tombo - any chance of ABE area scoring with any? I can't view anything right now - on my ipad. Thanks!

.01-.1 for qpf

[snywx]

As I have said before, the axis of heavy snow at our latitude for most winter storms is about 50 miles, that is why you can never be definitive about snow totals outside of 72 hours.

Its not even about the axis of heavy snow right now.. My main concern is suppression and I think this seasons trend so far has reared its ugly head. Bring back SWFE events!!!

[Stormlover74]

Forget specifics regarding QPF and who gets snow and how much. The run wasn't bad in the overall sense

It may not be bad for NYC and LI but it is very bad for those of us in this thread south of there.

[NittanyWx]

Honestly, do not overly concern yourself with the surface QPF panel until this storm is within closer range. Upper levels and synoptics.

[eduggs]

I'm not at all given the surface and h5 depictions. The surface low is captured and the CCB rapidly develops. The surface low goes from 996 over OBX to 980 directly over the 40/70 Benchmark.

You're right, the surface track doesn't look half bad. And it deepens rapidly at it makes its closest pass, aided by strengthening mid and upper level lows. But I think the upper level orientation and evolution is worse this run that a few previous runs that offered less QPF. I feel we may have gotten a little lucky at the surface this time.

[IsentropicLift]

The reality is...the 00z EC was a NW outlier that was given some support from todays 12z NCEP models, Especially the GFS and the Navy's NOAGPS. The 12z run of the Euro shows us just how critical the timing of the phase is and what can happen if its even a few hours late. I'm less confident now in a MECS IMBY (Morris County, NJ) but I'm alot more confident than I was yesterday that most of us will see an accumulating snow. Unlike last week, the Euro didn't take a 300 mile SE shift one run after showing a beast.

[SACRUS]

It may not be bad for NYC and LI but it is very bad for those of us in this thread south of there.

Sound like a good chunk of NJ is in the 0.50 or nearing a half inch. Still plenty of time to work those details out. 12z GFS and ECM some how converge on a moderate to major snow storm for the NJ/NYC and SNE area.

[Stormlover74]

You're getting burned because you jumped on board 6 or 7 days out. You should know better than to think the models are going to get it right from that far out and not waver. The event is still 5 days away and there is plenty of time for this to still work out

I can't believe we're about to get burned again, now the models had changed so much that we're back to a win-lose setup were if it doesn't phase, we get nothing and if it does, we get hammered.

I was hoping the shortwave would go west to east and keep its latitude thereby giving us some snow no matter what happens but that's changing. Now we have to hope that it phases which I stated is unlikely given the broad trough and the location of both the western trough and ridge. Once again, we are back to square one as with the past system and on the threshold of getting burned once more. There's no way this system is going to phase in time and get up the coast.

Unfortunately, this could end up as another brown Christmas and a December to forget.

[atownwxwatcher]

HPC not to thrilled at this point and time ...

.WINTER WEATHER SHOULD SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINSEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTICSTATES...AS WELL AS SNOW SHOWERS UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVELLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE IMPACT OF THISSYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF AQUESTION MARK...AS THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY DRIED OUT OF THEMID-ATLANTIC STATES YET INCREASED AMOUNTS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTNEW ENGLAND. FOR THE TIME BEING THE MORE NORTHWESTERN 00Z ECMWFTRACK AND THE SLOW PACE OF THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION APPEAR TO BELOWER PROBABILITY ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS.ROTH

[earthlight]

You're right, the surface track doesn't look half bad. And it deepens rapidly at it makes its closest pass, aided by strengthening mid and upper level lows. But I think the upper level orientation and evolution is worse this run that a few previous runs that offered less QPF. I feel we may have gotten a little lucky at the surface this time.

It's definitely slower with the H5 phase which could lead to some concern, but I am intrigued at the consistency of the GFS, ECMWF, and occasionally CMC that this is going to happen and get tugged close in towards the close. The big Greenland block retrograding even further west than during the current storm; along the with the presence of a big west coast ridge lends credence to the opinion that this storm should be much closer to a coastal track.

[goombatommy]

HPC not to thrilled at this point and time ...

.WINTER WEATHER SHOULD SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINSEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTICSTATES...AS WELL AS SNOW SHOWERS UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVELLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE IMPACT OF THISSYSTEM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF AQUESTION MARK...AS THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY DRIED OUT OF THEMID-ATLANTIC STATES YET INCREASED AMOUNTS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTNEW ENGLAND. FOR THE TIME BEING THE MORE NORTHWESTERN 00Z ECMWFTRACK AND THE SLOW PACE OF THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION APPEAR TO BELOWER PROBABILITY ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS.ROTH

Wasn't this noted a few hours ago?

[Stormlover74]

Maybe right now but 24 hours ago the models were showing something completely different and 24 hours from now who knows. I see no real model consensus in terms of locking in a solution.

There is a pretty unanimous model agreement now that the phase happens too late for PHL and SNE cashs in big time. Seems like pretty standard Nina climo and back to business as usual unfortunately. Those of us south of NYC/LI need to see DC/RIC in the bullseye to feel safe at this timeframe.

Really bummed this went from a simple moderate over-running event to a complicated phase event.

[MJO812]

HPC's take.

[simpsonsbuff]

Honestly, do not overly concern yourself with the surface QPF panel until this storm is within closer range. Upper levels and synoptics.

The reason some people don't read the upper level synoptics is because they don't know how to interpret them.

[earthlight]

HPC's take.

They have 64 pops at NYC at that time--pretty bullish.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_POP_filled.gif

[snywx]

They have 64 pops at NYC at that time--pretty bullish.

http://www.hpc.ncep...._POP_filled.gif

Rosenstein is one of the better forecasters in HPC..

[MikeS]

They have 64 pops at NYC at that time--pretty bullish.

http://www.hpc.ncep...._POP_filled.gif

What does that represent?

[goombatommy]

64% chance of snow?

...of precipitation.

[mappy]

This......from the MA thread.......if you live from DC to NYC there is serious cause for concern over what we're seeing.

FYI - if there is anyone you should listen to from the MA thread, it should be usedtobe/capitalweather, who is a damn good met. Trust me.

[MJO812]

Believe me I know. I read the MA thread as much as the NYC/PHL thread because here in northern DE my climo is more MA than NYC.

But I will bet that West right now is throwing up warning flags about what is being portrayed on the models for folks between RIC and SNE.

Wes you mean

What warning flags between RIC and SNE? No one should be worried at this point because there is still 4 days to go with this event. SNE gets hit pretty hard on the 12z Euro. It is places just to the west of I-95 that gets screwed because the storm bombs out further north and east than previous runs.

[mappy]

Believe me I know. I read the MA thread as much as the NYC/PHL thread because here in northern DE my climo is more MA than NYC.

But I will bet that West right now is throwing up warning flags about what is being portrayed on the models for folks between RIC and SNE.

He actually put out another CWG article today, I think you can find the link on the Main Weather Discussion page.

[bluehens]

Yeah he only gave a 55% probability of 1" or more and that was before the 12z runs. Wes is always very conservative in his approach but I think that is the way to go around here because it takes an awful lot of things to go right for us to get snow.

He actually put out another CWG article today, I think you can find the link on the Main Weather Discussion page.

[A-L-E-X]

With all due respect, I think we need Will's input as he is the one who always says that Miller B's are usually very good for NYC and Long Island. We might not jackpot, but we're usually in the action.

[atownwxwatcher]

Is this a Miller B now all of a sudden?

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPNA120.gif

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPNA144.gif

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPNA168.gif

I did not realize that Miller B's swung that far south and came up along the eastern seaboard.

Was always under the impression that a Miller B redeveloped off the coast........

[A-L-E-X]

Is this a Miller B now all of a sudden?

http://raleighwx.ame...mbTSLPNA120.gif

http://raleighwx.ame...mbTSLPNA144.gif

http://raleighwx.ame...mbTSLPNA168.gif

I did not realize that Miller B's swung that far south and came up along the eastern seaboard.

Was always under the impression that a Miller B redeveloped off the coast........

That does look like a Miller A-- I dont know why he was calling it a Miller B, but I was just addressing the idea that Miller B's arent good for NYC-- that sure as hell isnt true.

[IsentropicLift]

looks like a Miller A on the euro. This doesnt look like a classic miller B at all imo...what are you guys talking about lol 150hrs out yeah we wanna see our area get destroyed every run but the details cant be taken seriously i mean cmon now...the 500mb is a beaut, and as of right now its all about timing..

Excellent point! People need to stop living and dying with each individual model run...the overhwelming consensus at the moment is for an accumulating snow even on the east coast DEC 25-26th time frame. For those folks in the MA, well all I can say is you got spoiled last winter. Most of the time the DC area is going to miss out while it watches NYC and Boston cash in.

[am19psu]

bluehens is only stating the QPF field looks like the QPF you'd expect from a Miller B. Let's not harp on that detail and get back to model analysis.

[RutgersWx92]

Well I just hope we can scrape a few inches. I'd be happy with 2-3" at this point. Unfortunately the models have shifted in a negative way so that we would struggle to even see a flake while SNE gets 6-12", but we're talking 5+ days out. Hopefully things trend in our favor once again, I don't need a coastal bomb but I would enjoy seeing a few inches around the holidays rather than looking at the dead,brown lawn and bare trees all day.

Uh, the 12z GFS and 12z Euro both give us a few inches. Not sure what you're talking about.

[sauss06]

Just shared this in another thread if its helpful for Miller A and B storms. Someone shared it with me before and i found it useful