tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 hr 156 sub 984 low over the bm...lgt ot mod precip over nyc sne about to get hit hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 so far qpf nyc .4 phl .08-.1 dc .05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 hr 162 a 968 low in the gulf of maine, sne creamed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlsnowman24 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 without tapping GOM mositure, the qpf is going to be very limited for this storm the later phase does not help things either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 hr 156 sub 984 low over the bm...lgt ot mod precip over nyc sne about to get hit hard I find the precip totals are a bit tough to see... would you say it's about 1/2 to 3/4" for NYC area, tombo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 hr 168 sub 970 on portland me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 This is what usually la-nina storms end up looking like, but they usually aren't modeled that far north this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Sounds about 100-125 miles west of where it was 0Z? yep.. about the right mileage, I would say.. but East of 0Z, not west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I find the precip totals are a bit tough to see... would you say it's about 1/2 to 3/4" for NYC area, tombo? its so close i dont even know its somewhere close to .5 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 its so close i dont even know its somewhere close to .5 lol Will you be creating a qpf map for the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 the later phase does not help things either... QPF is not the issue here....the timing of the phase is, a tad earlier and we end up with a 00z EC like solution, a tad slower and we end up with a 12z GFS like solution. Either way, after the GFS had taken steps towards the 00z euro it looks like the 12z EC took steps away from its 00z solution. Still not a bad run though especially if you live in NJ on northeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 hr 174 its parked over central maine...imho this storm should be further east the ridge axis is over eastern montana/western dakotas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 its so close i dont even know its somewhere close to .5 lol ok, yea... Eastern Long Island does seem to get quite a bit more QPF. It looks to be closer to the one inch mark on the very tip of long island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 hr 162 a 968 low in the gulf of maine, sne creamed Good maybe they will stop crying about last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I gotta say I'd much rather have the bowling ball look that this thing had originally instead of having to rely on a complicated phase and the low coming up the coast. Phasing storms rarely ever pan out as well as they could. Give me some over-running potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 It's not that bad of a run. A lot seems to depend on when the phase is, right? And run to run could be different in that regard this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Will you be creating a qpf map for the euro? im not sure your area gets .25-.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 What happened to the whole idea of this storm needing alot less players then last weekends storm? Sounds like we are right back where we left off. smh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 hr 144 has a 996 just east of hse...se va to southern delmarva getting hit good, some lgt precip from dc south that doesnt sound good...god almighty. why cant these models just figure this crap out.... so far, it seems like its the seasonal trend.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I have a feeling the models are going to be struggling for any sort of consistency for at least the next couple of days. It's not that bad of a run. A lot seems to depend on when the phase is, right? And run to run could be different in that regard this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 ok, yea... Eastern Long Island does seem to get quite a bit more QPF. It looks to be closer to the one inch mark on the very tip of long island. the best thing to do is save the qpf map, open it up in paint, then zoom in on it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I don't like the mid level height field. The 500mb isohypses never get parallel to the coastline. Low center moves from w to e to our north. We need it SW of us with a negative trof tilt. I'm surprised NYC manages moderate QPF with this run. N&W of cities can't do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 LOL, I was thinking the same thing. The hole in that needle is shrinking by the minute :-) What happened to the whole idea of this storm needing alot less players then last weekends storm? Sounds like we are right back where we left off. smh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I don't like the mid level height field. The 500mb isohypses never get parallel to the coastline. Low center moves from w to e to our north. We need it SW of us with a negative trof tilt. I'm surprised NYC manages moderate QPF with this run. N&W of cities can't do well. its basically a miller b qpf wise...this low looks like it should be further east like i stated with the ridge axis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I'm surprised NYC manages moderate QPF with this run. N&W of cities can't do well. I'm not at all given the surface and h5 depictions. The surface low is captured and the CCB rapidly develops. The surface low goes from 996 over OBX to 980 directly over the 40/70 Benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 What happened to the whole idea of this storm needing alot less players then last weekends storm? Sounds like we are right back where we left off. smh.. Snowstorms dont just magically happen for East Coasters. We need a lot of things to come together, I think last year spoiled us. All the players are on the field for this storm. Not every set of model runs everyday are going to show a major snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 the best thing to do is save the qpf map, open it up in paint, then zoom in on it lol lol ahhh.. is that how you've done them.. I was wondering. I'll have to try that sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I know the trough axis isn't as severe as i drew on the line here, but you get the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 imho this storm should be further east the ridge axis is over eastern montana/western dakotas The problem is the ridge axis is still over Montana when the surface low turns the corner and gets captured aloft. That's when crunch time is. This run isn't bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Hey Tombo - any chance of ABE area scoring with any? I can't view anything right now - on my ipad. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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