NYC/PHL 12/21-12/27 Forecast Threats

[Stormlover74]

Just Jan '87 in most spots (slightly less in the city/LI). Most winters in the 80s seemed to feature a lot of 4 to 7" events and that was plenty!. in the past 15 years we've had way more than our fair share of significant 10" snowfalls and now every storm we think its going to be the 'big one'. They are still extremely rare and one could argue that we are overdue for some below normal winters in terms of snowfall (or Global warming is going to give us blizzard after blizzard for the next 50 years) :-)

Good post.

I believe we didn't even get a 10 incher in that time.

[Zir0b]

that's a nice looking s/w

[tombo82685]

that's a nice looking s/w

yes that is a very nice s/w. The stronger the better, but remember we are on the edge of the nam's range.

[tombo82685]

let me ask this question here. Why is the bowling ball low now being progged so far south? What changed with the models?

[Porsche]

yes that is a very nice s/w. The stronger the better, but remember we are on the edge of the nam's range.

But how is the ridge looking out West, isn't that the issue with today's EURO?

[tombo82685]

But how is the ridge looking out West, isn't that the issue with today's EURO?

I think it all ties together, imho. If you have a stornger s/w the ridge trof orientation is going to change from a s/w that is weaker.

[IsentropicLift]

This is around the time frame last week where the models began showing a flatter solution and it became clear that the storm was heading OTS. I like how the 18z NAM is showing a more amplified solution. Hopefully the 18z GFS follows suite. With the 00z EC not only did we have a strong S/W but it phased perfectly. With the 12z EC it showed a slightly weaker S/W and a slower phasing. I'm very interested to see what the 00z euro shows. I know its five days away and I for one have been saying that we shouldnt take one model run to heart but I'll be quite discouraged if the 00z euro ends up flatter.

[Zir0b]

let me ask this question here. Why is the bowling ball low now being progged so far south? What changed with the models?

I think there is strong confluence modeled than a couple days ago..look at this loop of the 15z SREFS....as the s/w goes east you can see how the confluence will limit it's amplification unless it phases

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21500US_15z/srefloop.html

[tombo82685]

I think there is strong confluence modeled than a couple days ago..look at this loop of the 15z SREFS....as the s/w goes east you can see how the confluence will limit it's amplification unless it phases

http://www.meteo.psu...z/srefloop.html

ahh ok, i didn't think the confluence was that strong to push the low to new oreleans

[ParanormalWx]

It's still early and the GFS tends to suck at this range. I will say I don't like the fact that the models have pushed the low south, when the low was across Ohio yesterday.

[tombo82685]

gfs seems a little faster with energy coming into cali

[Sn0waddict]

18z DGEX

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html

[gkrangers]

18z DGEX

http://www.meteo.psu...z/dgexloop.html

Jesus christ.

[earthlight]

18z DGEX

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html

[ace0927]

18z DGEX

http://www.meteo.psu...z/dgexloop.html

LOCK IT!!!!

The second I saw the h5 depiction at 120 i knew it was gonna have a bomb.

[Ericjcrash]

Jesus christ.

You forgot Mary and Joeseph.

[KEITH L.I]

Jesus christ.

it'[s a shame the model sucks..oh well on to the 18z GFS..

[rossi]

You forgot Mary and Joeseph.

They are busy checking the Christmas model!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[IsentropicLift]

good...maybe now we can all relax and look forward to the 00z runs. I feel like a babysitter today lol With so many people saying all the models trended south and east at 12z when the GFS and NOAGPS clearly jumped NW I was getting quite annoyed

[ace0927]

18z DGEX

http://www.meteo.psu...z/dgexloop.html

yeah, thats about 1.75qpf....NICE...and highly unlikely

[ARyan]

Has anyone tried to find analogs to the upcoming storm? I've come up with February 5-7, 1978. The upper levels look pretty similar to what is being modeled. However the sfc differs quite a bit with a miller B rather than the expected miller A for this storm. Thoughts?

[blazess556]

yeah, thats about 1.75qpf....NICE...and highly unlikely

Im pretty sure most of us here are sane and therefore know it is unlikely.

[Jmister]

18z looks slightly faster than the 12z, with a little more interaction with the northern stream. If I had to judge based on hour 78, I'd say this run will come in further west than 12z. Lets see...

[Zir0b]

18z DGEX

http://www.meteo.psu...z/dgexloop.html

weird...looks like it completely dampens out the lead s/w and the storm is almost entirely northern stream dominant

[tombo82685]

18z at hr 90 looks more amplified to my eyes..

[Sn0waddict]

yeah, thats about 1.75qpf....NICE...and highly unlikely

Weather porn at its finest

[SACRUS]

A look at the actual weather shows tons of energy

[Feb]

good...maybe now we can all relax and look forward to the 00z runs. I feel like a babysitter today lol With so many people saying all the models trended south and east at 12z when the GFS and NOAGPS clearly jumped NW I was getting quite annoyed

I'm not sure the best way to relax is to get a cigarette and hop in bed with the DGEX.

[IsentropicLift]

Im pretty sure most of us here are sane and therefore know it is unlikely.

I wouldn't say 1.75" QPF is out of the question this far out...but I would agree that its not a very reliable model but it sure is nice to have something to look at. Seemed last week as if we would get one model per day to throw us a bone and blind us into thinking we still had a chance. This week their is much more of a signal something is going to happen.

[tombo82685]

northern stream now involved at hr 99 this should be further west or a good run for some.