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The Big One - Forecast & Discussion


Wow

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Verbatim, that was a great NAM run for the NC mountains (for snow). Strengthening closed 850mb low tracks from N MS, to extreme NW SC, to just east of Asheville. For a 850mb low of that strength, it's pretty much a must to be NW of its track to get all snow (12z Euro and Euro Ensemble tracked the 850mb low more through central NC). For the mtns, the NAM has strong warm advection lift combined with upslope flow out of the SE. Also, a nice 500mb vort max track from central AL to central NC. Heavy snow for the mtns on this NAM run.

Well said. The 850 low track is crucial and will be the indicator to watch on WAA

We have witnessed WAA in many storms in the past to roar in from the coast in the critical layers in a matter of a few hours as a storm is winding up.

If the NAM is right tonight, the mountains come out of this with the first solid substantial snowfall of the winter.

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I like the first wave..the gfs has it just about all snow here. Only a tiny warm layer around 850 that is barely above freezing. :D

oh I bet...I do agree with you about the first initial wave.  That really helps NC cool down and then helps us.  GFS has us literally at 34 degrees from 6z wed to 00z thur when its 32.  I can't honestly think thats right given such a deep and cold fetch from our NE on those winds...hell maybe it will be 33-34 and rain 2.5 inches.

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Track is a little further east.  If you're in RDU you would much prefer this track.

 

Yeah, you an see what the difference 50 miles makes.  Let's just hope the Euro doesn't tick NW anymore, it very well might.  I imagine everyone north of us is expecting the GFS to keep ticking NW, which it usually does at 72 hours out.

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gfs continues to have what looks like feedback issues with that blob of convection. It's a little concerning that it's had this for several runs so it might not be all convective feedback but a real cluster..in which case areas further north would be hurt with totals. Will be interesting to see if the canadian or euro show it because up until now they haven't.

 

gfs has my 850mb temp at around 33...nam is around 40 lol.

 

Gfs looks like a lot of sleet or snow/sleet mix here but it's very close to being all snow. Any heavier precip it probably would be. Looks like all snow in gainesville to anderson

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GFS once again keep’s the upstate as all snow... about 1 inch of liquid falls so we’re talking about maybe a foot.

 

Geez, I hope it’s right.  I have a feeling models will trend this way. I just don’t see this system bombing out like the NAM shows in such a fast flow, when every other system this winter has been progressive.

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For the love of all that is holy please let the GFS be the correct solution. Has snow starting around Charlotte at 18z Tuesday and doesn't end until 15z Thursday. 

 

 I was just about to type that, almost 50 hours for bulk of NC.  LOL, will never happen, but nice to look at.

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