nchighcountrywx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Brad Panovich's Professional Opinion: Brad Panovich (@wxbrad) 2/9/14, 19:40 2-4" snow/sleet with 0.15" ice & some rain around .15-.25". If we bust it would be not enough ice more than snow Brad is well respected. Does not appear that his thoughts on this one are getting much consideration on our board for this event. I think his comment is for the CLT area Do expectations need to be reeled in a bit? As NWS GSP says, even though confidence is building it is still 'low confidence' and too early to call. Myself, I think Brad is a tad conservative on this one. 4 to 6, in my opinion is more likely down in Charlotte depending on WAA. It's all about the layers and how much WAA gets involved. We have witnessed it in the past roar in from the coast in the critical layers in a matter of a few hours as a storm is winding up. Discuss.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 0z NAM -- southern vortex a bit slower (west) of 18z position through 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Out to 27 about the same as the 18z. Energy in the south a little stronger, thus more moisture over AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 At 27 southern vort is a little south in Arizona than 18z looking primed already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Brad Panovich's Professional Opinion: Brad Panovich (@wxbrad) 2/9/14, 19:40 2-4" snow/sleet with 0.15" ice & some rain around .15-.25". If we bust it would be not enough ice more than snow Brad is well respected. Does not appear that his thoughts on this one are getting much consideration on our board for this event. I think his comment is for the CLT area Do expectations need to be reeled in a bit? Their in-house model was spitting that out from what I saw earlier on the broadcast, or at least that what it looked like to me. I think more sleet than freezing rain would be what CLT area posters have to worry about in the back of their minds when it comes to limiting snow amounts here for this storm, which I'm sure is what he is anticipating. Dreaded WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Brad Panovich's Professional Opinion: Do expectations need to be reeled in a bit? Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Brad Panovich's Professional Opinion: Brad Panovich (@wxbrad) 2/9/14, 19:40 2-4" snow/sleet with 0.15" ice & some rain around .15-.25". If we bust it would be not enough ice more than snow Brad is well respected. Does not appear that his thoughts on this one are getting much consideration on our board for this event. I think his comment is for the CLT area Do expectations need to be reeled in a bit? No. He's also a TV met. They have a reputation to maintain and forecasts like his this far out is the reason he's so well respected and has a good rep. He's not going to make a first call map like DT still days away from the event (not bashing DT, just saying DT isn't a TV met, he could care less about rep). With that said, his totals are on the low end now, he'll likely crank them up as we get closer if current modeling holds serve. 2" is too low for snow in CLT with system currently modeled, but like I said, TV mets aren't the ones who go around throwing up high totals days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Brad Panovich's Professional Opinion: Brad Panovich (@wxbrad) 2/9/14, 19:40 2-4" snow/sleet with 0.15" ice & some rain around .15-.25". If we bust it would be not enough ice more than snow Brad is well respected. Does not appear that his thoughts on this one are getting much consideration on our board for this event. I think his comment is for the CLT area Do expectations need to be reeled in a bit? I follow Brad pretty much most of all, he was absolutrly spot on with the 1/28 storm. He also posted this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 HR 30 is def stronger with that southern piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Pretty significant timing changes to our disturbances on the 0z NAM vs 18z. At 27 hours on the Oz the southern impulse is stronger and back over central Ariz. On the 18z at the same timeframe it was on the Ariz./NM border. Northern impulse further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This is what WLTX posted just now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This run is looking like it's going to be solid still even at 33 with the northern and southern streams and the overall 5h map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That's what I read too. I mean they know way more than I do but there going with more of a GFS solution? Really? It obv is suffering thru some sort of conv feedback issues and it has been slowly trending toward the other bomb solutions. If the high is retreating it would make sense for it to be able to begin its trek a little more northward then a couple days ago no? WPC's model diagnostic discussion mentioned they were going with a non GFS blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 So in other words, the roller coaster of model waffling will continue until we see the "whites of this storm system's eyes". Great. Greg....Greg....when in all your years have they ever showed monster snows and sleets that verified? I only remember the Blizzard Sure they can predict minor events, but huge, big, honking 200 year storms take some percolation, fermentation, and mathification I'm just very happy to not be in the bullseye...like last time, when I had only an inch until the last hour, lol. Right now the Atl tv stations all say the ice and snow will circle me, but I'll only get vast amounts of liquid rain...and I'm happy with that I do much better when I don't have much of a chance a day out Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It is stronger and further south but I don't see the piece of energy coming down over CO to phase with it, but is is slower so maybe it's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 No. He's also a TV met. They have a reputation to maintain and forecasts like his this far out is the reason he's so well respected and has a good rep. He's not going to make a first call map like DT still days away from the event (not bashing DT, just saying DT isn't a TV met, he could care less about rep). With that said, his totals are on the low end now, he'll likely crank them up as we get closer if current modeling holds serve. 2" is too low for snow in CLT with system currently modeled, but like I said, TV mets aren't the ones who go around throwing up high totals days out. On one hand the person you're talking to has done nothing the last 24 hours but post about how Ryan Maue (sorry to lazy to spell his name correctly) posted a video talking about how amazing the Euro ENS is and why it should be given the most weight. Well now that the Euro ENS is giving high totals for CLT he has to find something else to hang his hat on. Some things will never change on this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I find it hard to believe that we switch to rain with a decent coastal that far out to sea with a damming HP in place. I think the models have a tendency to erode the CAD too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 No. He's also a TV met. They have a reputation to maintain and forecasts like his this far out is the reason he's so well respected and has a good rep. He's not going to make a first call map like DT still days away from the event (not bashing DT, just saying DT isn't a TV met, he could care less about rep). With that said, his totals are on the low end now, he'll likely crank them up as we get closer if current modeling holds serve. 2" is too low for snow in CLT with system currently modeled, but like I said, TV mets aren't the ones who go around throwing up high totals days out. Outside of Brad, WCNC is pretty weak in our area for weather coverage, though when Brad is there they are second OVERALL for coverage for me behind WBTV and Eric Thomas (new mets leave a bit to be desired however). For instance, last night they showed what was supposed to be the GFS saying it was the northern tracking solution with the ramped up moisture. I was amazed at what I heard and saw. Same thing earlier tonight, the graphic had the region in a 4-6" snow accumulation range yet they state 2-4" is the particular model output. I have no issue with them starting conservative, I know I would, but at least both accurately represent AND say what a model is showing if you have it on the screen. Very surprising to see that the last 24 hrs from them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Fox 21 future cast and the new Met Ted somebody says he doesn't buy the high amounts in the upstate? I want Andy back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 HP stronger at 36 (1038) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The precip is further south this run so far through hr 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Northern stream south;southern stream stronger and slower/west. How will that affect the sensible weather is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 stout NE wind coming into GA and knocking down those temps at 2m at hour 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It is stronger and further south but I don't see the piece of energy coming down over CO to phase with it, but is is slower so maybe it's coming. Looks like everything even the northern energy is slowed down by about 4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If I didn't know better (and I probably don't) I would think the slower southern stream would mean an earlier phase, more westerly track later in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM at 36 actually lines up very well with the speed and progression of the GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Man, these are hundreds-of-miles changes in the positions of the southern and northern stream disturbances -- has to have SOME impact on the actual weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If I didn't know better (and I probably don't) I would think the slower southern stream would mean an earlier phase, more westerly track later in the run.That's exactly what I'm thinking here but could be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If I didn't know better (and I probably don't) I would think the slower southern stream would mean an earlier phase, more westerly track later in the run. Agreed, much sharper at 48, trying to go positive over DFW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Further south and lighter precip @45 on this run. Actually looks close to the SREF at the same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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