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February 12-13 Storm: Title TBD


stormtracker

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If I were FORCED to make a forecast, I'd probably go like this

 

DCA/Calvert/PG/PW - 2-5" with mixing, changeover possible, Montgomery - 3-6"

JYO-IAD - 4-7", some mixing possible toward IAD

Baltimore and burbs - 3-6", mixing south and east

Bullseye - Westminster/York/Parkton - 5-9"

 

Chances of total whiff - 10%

Chances of all rain at DCA - 20%

Chance of 1" at DCA - 40%

Chance of more than 0.50" liquid at DCA(properly measured) - 40%

Chance of 4" at DCA - 15%

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Very good run with the 12z Euro run today. One thing we know, there will be a major storm for the Eastern US this week.  No need to get into specifics, but just the overall setup.  If the low tracks just offshore, I think everyone should be in great shape to pick up significant snows.  Now, it will be interesting when the GFS starts catching onto this big storm.  

 

Just looking at the 850mb low on this run, does take it over Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday evening.  Then tracks it to eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia overnight Thursday and then offshore by Thursday afternoon.  

 

Checking the 700mb level, see things moisten up Wednesday afternoon.  Starts to pull away early Thursday afternoon.  You can see the coma head there.  

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who would be...the models are still far out...only an ignorant person would be committed to a solution

  

If I were FORCED to make a forecast, I'd probably go like this

 

DCA/Calvert/PG/PW - 2-5" with mixing, changeover possible, Montgomery - 3-6"

JYO-IAD - 4-7", some mixing possible toward IAD

Baltimore and burbs - 3-6", mixing south and east

Bullseye - Westminster/York/Parkton - 5-9"

 

Chances of total whiff - 10%

Chances of all rain at DCA - 20%

Chance of 1" at DCA - 40%

Chance of more than 0.50" liquid at DCA(properly measured) - 40%

Chance of 4" at DCA - 15%

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Where did I say I was committed to a solution?...learn to read

 

Learn to be consistent.

 

Why would you even venture into specifics at this point?...You know better.  

 

Surely we'll have the pattern show up again...12-24 hours before the "event", if it holds on the models, you'll rant about how you don't care about snow anywhere except your backyard.  The admins will admonish you via PM, and you'll come back and apologize.

 

Odd combo of neediness and passive/agressiveness from you.

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Learn to be consistent.

Why would you even venture into specifics at this point?...You know better.

Surely we'll have the pattern show up again...12-24 hours before the "event", if it holds on the models, you'll rant about how you don't care about snow anywhere except your backyard. The admins will admonish you via PM, and you'll come back and apologize.

Odd combo of neediness and passive/agressiveness from you.

Wtf? Unnecessary .

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Learn to be consistent.

 

Why would you even venture into specifics at this point?...You know better.  

 

Surely we'll have the pattern show up again...12-24 hours before the "event", if it holds on the models, you'll rant about how you don't care about snow anywhere except your backyard.  The admins will admonish you via PM, and you'll come back and apologize.

 

Odd combo of neediness and passive/agressiveness from you.

 

I am going to try harder to be a better poster...will you come back in say 24 hours and let me know if I have improved?  since I can't gauge or measure my own posting behavior I need boundaries to be set...I need a smaller boat....feel free to psychoanalyze me again if you think it will help...you're my compass..Will you take this journey of self-improvement with me?

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The weenie trolls are out in force today.

Wish you guys would move some of them on. Ridic to have to wade through some of that bs. Should be kinda an exciting series of developments since midnight last night in terms of maybe seeing snow midweek and it's turned into some kind of accuweather forum . Painful.

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