Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It will be interesting to see what the euro ensembles show for the d9-10 timeframe. Last night had just a few snowy members but the precip is there. There was decent agreement for monday night though. Mostly a light event on the ind members. 2"+/- on the means. But that seems to be changing across all guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It will be interesting to see what the euro ensembles show for the d9-10 timeframe. Last night had just a few snowy members but the precip is there. There was decent agreement for monday night though. Mostly a light event on the ind members. 2"+/- on the means. But that seems to be changing across all guidance. Is that Increasing or decreasing across guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Is that Increasing or decreasing across guidance Increasing. trends today have been excellent. Right now all models give us accum snow monday night. Hard to complain. Details will be breaking news for the next couple days. 2-4" area wide is a decent wag attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 DO YOU SEE IT TRENDING ANYMORE QPF..I MEAN ISAW JMA..LOL..BUT THAT ENCOURAGIN IF WE CAN GET SAY .80 ALL SNOW..SORRY CAPS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 DO YOU SEE IT TRENDING ANYMORE QPF..I MEAN ISAW JMA..LOL..BUT THAT ENCOURAGIN IF WE CAN GET SAY .80 ALL SNOW..SORRY CAPS... let's keep this disco in the event thread. Quoting you there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It will be interesting to see what the euro ensembles show for the d9-10 timeframe. Last night had just a few snowy members but the precip is there. There was decent agreement for monday night though. Mostly a light event on the ind members. 2"+/- on the means. But that seems to be changing across all guidance. Just based on the mean, we go into a stable cold pattern around the 24th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Just based on the mean, we go into a stable cold pattern around the 24th Just look at the temp anoms and h5 anoms. From the 24th straight through Mar 2nd is below normal. Some really cold days in there for late feb. All the way down to the deep se as well. 850 zero line is south of atlanta for a few days. we get close to -15 850's. That's pretty chilly approaching march. The fly in the ointment is dry on the means. Not a lot of precip after we flip cold. Hardly anything to worry about though. If we have a week of stable cold it won't be completely dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Euro ensembles not very supportive of the op. About 1/3 show snowy solutions in the d8-10 timeframe. It's way out there. Much to be resolved. It's on the front side of a pattern change. Those are lower probabilities in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Euro ensembles not very supportive of the op. About 1/3 show snowy solutions in the d8-10 timeframe. It's way out there. Much to be resolved. It's on the front side of a pattern change. Those are lower probabilities in our area. LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 JI, that's the same map posted above...it's the operational Euro snowfall and not the ensembles Bob was talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Torch seems to be hitting the phail button. Gfs now interested in the d8-9 period. Sorry Mattie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Euro has the day 9 storm...very nice looking.... gulf low, coastal.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Euro has the day 9 storm...very nice looking.... gulf low, coastal.... Verbatim, would be a snow storm NC/VA and maybe sneaking into southern MD. Exactly where you want it at this point. The important point is that it has players (fresh cold air/stalled front to our south/wave of low pressure riding the front) on the field for the 24th-25th time period. This active tracking winter continues. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Torch seems to be hitting the phail button. Gfs now interested in the d8-9 period. Sorry MattieI'm not at all surprised. As long as the warmup doesn't give way to 35, dry, and windy, I'll grudgingly accept it.Interesting that both the Euro and GFS seem to be advertising a similar boundary-riding wave train look around the 24th or so. The cold doesn't want to be denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Euro has the day 9 storm...very nice looking.... gulf low, coastal....Mslp anom panels show a general outline for a classic track so there is some support there. There's a lot of spread of course but enough members show it to show up on the means at a pretty long lead. Maybe the euro will score another long distance win. I'm a bit pessimistic because we typically don't go from a warm to cool pattern with a big snow storm. Seems like we always need some time after a cooldown to get things right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Torch seems to be hitting the phail button. Gfs now interested in the d8-9 period. Sorry Mattie Canadian ensembles never liked it and never had us very warm last night's map is nothing more than a warm average regime over the next 10 day, and considering most of the days in that period include our "torch", phail is a phair phigure of speech http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/tenday_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Mslp anom panels show a general outline for a classic track so there is some support there. There's a lot of spread of course but enough members show it to show up on the means at a pretty long lead. Maybe the euro will score another long distance win. I'm a bit pessimistic because we typically don't go from a warm to cool pattern with a big snow storm. Seems like we always need some time after a cooldown to get things right. GFS in la la land is ditching idea of 2/24 storm and now is keying on 2/26-27 time period. May be more in line with your thinking of a later threat period. Anyway, it does look cold starting on the 24th. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2014 Author Share Posted February 16, 2014 Canadian ensembles never liked it and never had us very warm last night's map is nothing more than a warm average regime over the next 10 day, and considering most of the days in that period include our "torch", phail is a phair phigure of speech http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/tenday_e.html Philosophically Phascinating. Phar Phlung idea appears the Phast warmup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Verbatim, would be a snow storm NC/VA and maybe sneaking into southern MD. Exactly where you want it at this point. The important point is that it has players (fresh cold air/stalled front to our south/wave of low pressure riding the front) on the field for the 24th-25th time period. This active tracking winter continues. MDstorm It's 2-4" for DC verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Torch seems to be hitting the phail button. Gfs now interested in the d8-9 period. Sorry Mattie what a disaster for torch enthusiasts of late. i want my money back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Philosophically Phascinating. Phar Phlung idea appears the Phast warmup. I think you've got a problem with ur fonetics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 what a disaster for torch enthusiasts of late. i want my money back. Just so it's warm this coming week. I don't much care about the following week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 So we're just looking at a 3-4 day warm up with no full blown torch? Maybe 1 day in the low 60s? My snow pack should be safe til Thursday by my estimation. A week of snow pack close to the cities is pretty good no matter the time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 GFS in la la land is ditching idea of 2/24 storm and now is keying on 2/26-27 time period. May be more in line with your thinking of a later threat period. Anyway, it does look cold starting on the 24th. MDstorm In my opinion, you want a few days between it getting cold and a precip event. Bob mentions this above. The thing that interests me about the last few ECMWF runs, and even the EPS, is there's a really nice gradient somewhere in the SE. With a gradient as tight as modeled, 80° to 40° over 175 miles from Myrtle Beach to Greensboro, you're almost guaranteed to have a storm develop along that. I'll take my chances with that setup as it's more likely to give MBY a big snow than a miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Just so it's warm this coming week. I don't much care about the following week.I'm pretty confident this spring is going to be annoyingly cool and wet. Though I just hug persistence until it breaks. I guess we are due for a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Lots of snowstorm analogs showing up in 6-10/11-15 range....Just off the top of my head I recognized 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Lots of snowstorm analogs showing up in 6-10/11-15 range....Just off the top of my head I recognized 6 without even looking at all the dates I dont know 3/8/84, 3/9/96, 2/25/07, 2/7/03, 3/12/93, 2/14/07 all showing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 without even looking at all the dates I dont know 3/8/84, 3/9/96, 2/25/07, 2/7/03, 3/12/93, 2/14/07 all showing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Lots of snowstorm analogs showing up in 6-10/11-15 range....Just off the top of my head I recognized 6 It's an interesting look on the means. Really amplified for a couple days. No atlantic help but I could see something happen on the bookends of wax/wane. I'm favoring the latter but very interested in early next week either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Holy crap Matt. That's a nice list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.