NortheastPAWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Euro is north and warm ...ballgame. thinking 2-5 and then sleet storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 What is CTP's ice warning criteria? I couldn't find it anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 What is CTP's ice warning criteria? I couldn't find it anywhere. .25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 RGEM continues it's warmer trend. Now more sleet than snow here in State College, per that model. A few inches of snow and maybe a few inches of sleet sounds good for UNV. Sleet almost always moves in faster than modeled there, even sometimes 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Well, tmrw is turning into a nuisance for UNV to IPT ESP with snow under sleet for easy removal. Ice is still huge threat in LSV of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 .25" I assume the 3 p.m. update puts us all in an ice storm warning thing. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Well, tmrw is turning into a nuisance for UNV to IPT ESP with snow under sleet for easy removal. Ice is still huge threat in LSV of course. I don't know what to expect. I am just expecting ice. All the models have something different for a storm less than 12 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 E-Wall site just added HRRR loops just within the past 30 min. Awesome! http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallhires.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 I assume the 3 p.m. update puts us all in an ice storm warning thing. Ugh. With any sleet or snow accumulation they won't issue a ISW. After the snow/sleet turns to ZR then maybe they change it over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I know man it's crazy. Guess just look out window and listen for pings lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 E-Wall site just added HRRR loops just within the past 30 min. Awesome! http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallhires.html Nice! 25.. pretty chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 I know man it's crazy. Guess just look out window and listen for pings lol. I'll be listening for trees popping and transformers exploding. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 That's some gross heavy freezing rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It's really nowcast time and besides euro is not good at this range. I do believe north pa near ny state line is pretty much all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Ping ping Holy crap that's like a 1" QPF bullseye. Probably would be 2-4 inches of sleet in the light green, yellow, and orange assuming 3-4:1 ratios. I've only personally seen one event in the late 90s that delivered that kind of sleet here. Can't remember exactly how much but at least a few inches and its really hard to deal with or drive in. Some roads that have steep embankments immediately adjacent had feet of sleet on them because the sleet would roll down. Some of those piles lasted halfway through April too haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think we have warmed too much here in York and Lancaster county and icing will not be as bad as thought (in my opinion). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'll be listening for trees popping and transformers exploding. lol Haha dude it looks ugly down your way tonight. 26 and heavy rain blegh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 E-Wall site just added HRRR loops just within the past 30 min. Awesome! http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallhires.html Wow, nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Holy crap that's like a 1" QPF bullseye. Probably would be 2-4 inches of sleet in the light green, yellow, and orange assuming 3-4:1 ratios. I've only personally seen one event in the late 90s that delivered that kind of sleet here. Can't remember exactly how much but at least a few inches and its really hard to deal with or drive in. Some roads that have steep embankments immediately adjacent had feet of sleet on them because the sleet would roll down. Some of those piles lasted halfway through April too haha.Yikes. 2-3" of sleet on top of a few inches of snow...talk about high impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 A few inches of snow and maybe a few inches of sleet sounds good for UNV. Sleet almost always moves in faster than modeled there, even sometimes 24 hours out. Only when you were here. Two storms in 2004, the one in Dec 2009 and the one in Dec 2012 ended being snowier. That's off the top of my head and likely why ctp mentioned possibly being colder than modeled in their discussion. Have to see. Not sure why we got more snow in those cases; whether it was due to rates or what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yikes. 2-3" of sleet on top of a few inches of snow...talk about high impact.I see what y'all did there lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wth... We've over performed on the last several of these I'm sticking with 6 to 8 and going down with the ship!! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wth... We've over performed on the last several of these I'm sticking with 6 to 8 and going down with the ship!! Lol I'm right with you. No idea why but have a good feeling. Blinded by yesterday's overperformer lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Wth... We've over performed on the last several of these I'm sticking with 6 to 8 and going down with the ship!! Lol Yes, I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Another opportunity missed? Man we cant buy a snowstorm here:angry: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm right with you. No idea why but have a good feeling. Blinded by yesterday's overperformer lol Idk dude every time they say 2 to 4 and sleet moves in then in reality it dumps 6 inches of snow then the light stuff is sleet. I remember more good outcomes then bad like Jm always reminds us of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNAO Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think we have warmed too much here in York and Lancaster county and icing will not be as bad as thought (in my opinion). Uh, the high for york is supposed to be 33 degrees. according to wunderground its only 26 right now. So how have we warmed too much here? Explain please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Eric Horst has the LSV around Rt 30 at .25-.5" accretion of ZR. He thinks the Turnpike will be the dividing line between more snow and sleet (Northside) and Freezing rain (south side). Meddler pretty much has his thoughts outlined on the map he got from him on the last page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yes, I like it. ^^^ I'll go down with the ship too. 6 to 8" followed by light sleet is my final call for UNV. Maybe I am naive, but sleet does NOT "always" happen here. December 2012 was a Miller B with 8.5" of snow, and December 2013 featured another Miller B with 6" of snow. Both major snows were followed by light sleet. Looking at models now is just a fool's-game. Models are "always" wrong. Whatever is going to happen will happen, and it's all completely outside our control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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