EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 2 to 6....same as Harrisburg in our warning dang. Ya, strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 They went really strong wording in their statements, almost too much lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I am quite puzzled. So at the Cambria/ Clearield county line goes from 4 to 8? But UNV only gets 6 along with IPT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 RGEM told the NAM to go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Hahahah good lord if RGEM comes true PA shuts down until further notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Hahahah good lord if RGEM comes true PA shuts down until further notice. Has 1-2" sleet followed by .6" freezing rain here. Concreted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 GFS drops 1.4" qpf over me. yeesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Models are kinda all over the place with qpf, but I'd say a blend of EURO, GFS and SREF even would be ok. NAM looks weird to begin with though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 7.6 frosty degrees this morning. Snow cover FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 15 at my house... a rare reading warmer than MDT... I think the snow stuck to the trees is helping hold my temps up a little... anyone else in wooded area noticing something similar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 15 at my house... a rare reading warmer than MDT... I think the snow stuck to the trees is helping hold my temps up a little... anyone else in wooded area noticing something similar? Not sure about the trees but on my way to work, every time I went up even the smallest of hills the temp quickly went up. Seemed the valleys really bottomed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Living on the border of the northern and southern Centre County line sure can interesting sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 10 degrees here this morningPREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWFCONFIDENCE: AVERAGENO SIGNIFICANT RUN-TO-RUN CHANGES WERE NOTED IN THE NAM SINCE 00Z. THE GFS HAS TRENDED A LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE INITIAL SURFACESURFACE LOW LIFTING FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANSTUE NIGHT-WED MORNING. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY WELLCLUSTERED AT 500MB-SURFACE THROUGH WED BUT SUBTLE DIFFERENCESREMAIN. ONE OF THE MORE NOTED DIFFERENCES IS THAT THE NAM ISFASTER TO LIFT THE INITIAL LOW NORTHWARD INTO THE TN VALLEY TUEEVENING AND FROM THERE TRACKS THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER WESTTHROUGH THE OH VALLEY WED MORNING THAN THE CURRENT MODELCONSENSUS. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Woke up to 14 and re-freeze. Still looks like a winter wonderland. Any surface that was un-treated, is ice, frozen ruts etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 17 here, icy spots all over my area. Should be interesting tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I notice that the grid forecast for State College doesn't really match the warning language, doesn't match that accumulation map (which is weird in other ways, as has been pointed out), and is essentially the same grid forecast as for Philipsburg (in 'northern' Centre county, almost Clearfield county) and Bellefonte. Beyond that, in terms of the warmer 0z GFS, it's worth noting (and some of you were last night) that NWP often underdoes CAD just to the east of the Allegheny Front. Now, that's critical for surface temperatures, of course; how that translates to temperatures aloft is somewhat more unclear. Furthermore, as Heavy_Wx mentioned in his very nice analysis last night, the Euro handled yesterday's event much better than the GFS, especially with respect to certain features that will be important for determining how this event plays out. The 0z Euro remained consistent in depicting a nearly-all-snow event for State College. I'm liking MAG's call of a six-inch line falling in the US 22 corridor. My current call for State College is 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Man everyone got much colder than here last night, 18.8 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 12" in 12 hours, now that would be something. This system's moisture mass fields certainly show its potential. And having lived in these parts for 50+ yrs, I believe somewhere btwn Harrisburg-Chambersburg- State College area is going to get well over a foot! Just my opinion! Ice to end briefly in LSV... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I notice that the grid forecast for State College doesn't really match the warning language, doesn't match that accumulation map (which is weird in other ways, as has been pointed out), and is essentially the same grid forecast as for Philipsburg (in 'northern' Centre county, almost Clearfield county) and Bellefonte. Beyond that, in terms of the warmer 0z GFS, it's worth noting (and some of you were last night) that NWP often underdoes CAD just to the east of the Allegheny Front. Now, that's critical for surface temperatures, of course; how that translates to temperatures aloft is somewhat more unclear. Furthermore, as Heavy_Wx mentioned in his very nice analysis last night, the Euro handled yesterday's event much better than the GFS, especially with respect to certain features that will be important for determining how this event plays out. The 0z Euro remained consistent in depicting a nearly-all-snow event for State College. I'm liking MAG's call of a six-inch line falling in the US 22 corridor. My current call for State College is 8". I think that's pretty reasonable. One thing that could help us is the fact that precip looks pretty heavy almost right from the start. I've seen that hold the sleet/zr at bay pretty effectively a couple of times here. No shortage of moisture, that's for sure...great gulf connection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Man everyone got much colder than here last night, 18.8 here. Just touched 14 here My zone reads 1-3" tonight with up to a tenth of ice. Then a trace of ice additional wed. No even close to warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Just touched 14 here My zone reads 1-3" tonight with up to a tenth of ice. Then a trace of ice additional wed. No even close to warning criteria. Ya I never look at the zone forecast,they never match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Currently 6° in Bellefonte and there are already clouds moving in from the SW. Gonna be a struggle to warm much today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think they went Warning everywhere because of it's high impact even with sleet/ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 my forecast low last night was 15. it's now 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Oops... probably should have shoveled that off yesterday. My car is now trapped in concrete base. Next will put on second layer tonight. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Oops... probably should have shoveled that off yesterday. My car is now trapped in concrete base. Next will put on second layer tonight. lol good luck with that. That's probably harder then a wedding peter. I'm kinda hoping some of this snow melts off these trees today, if not and we get a couple inches of snow then sleet and ice, gone be big trouble fella's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Currently 6° in Bellefonte and there are already clouds moving in from the SW. Gonna be a struggle to warm much today. We crashed to 3.6 this am. Didn't expect it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 One thing to watch out for today is the convection and heavy rain that will be present in the southern Mississippi Valley. The bulk effect of this precipitation could increase the 500 mb height gradient and consolidate the vorticity maxima farther south. The 00z Euro/CMC/UKMET all suggest this to some degree and all of these models had greater QPF in this region today than the GFS. This is potentially why the 850 mb lows in the foreign models take a more southerly track and in turn have a sharper dip in 850 mb temperatures than the GFS in central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Overall, the guidance seems to have shifted a bit warmer since yesterday, and puts State College squarely in the snow-to-sleet zone. The question is, will it be 95% snow 5% sleet, or 50% snow 50% sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 good luck with that. That's probably harder then a wedding peter. I'm kinda hoping some of this snow melts off these trees today, if not and we get a couple inches of snow then sleet and ice, gone be big trouble fella's it was so weird to not be able to see sunrise through the trees from my front window this morning with the snow on the trees blocking everything like they do in the middle of the summer The link I am posting below has a 21 day free trial of their product if anyone wants to download it and view the dual pol data tonight to watch where the snow/sleet/rain/etc lines set up around the region... the product itself is expensive but I have used the trial before for potential mixing/ice events... http://www.grlevelx.com/gr2analyst/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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