heavy_wx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Overall, the guidance seems to have shifted a bit warmer since yesterday, and puts State College squarely in the snow-to-sleet zone. The question is, will it be 95% snow 5% sleet, or 50% snow 50% sleet? The foreign guidance (Euro/CMC/UKMET) is still cold enough for mainly snow, though the Euro did trend a bit warmer. I would still favor most of the precip being snow for us as it probably will fall mostly during the more intense period of lift. We'll see what the 12z suite says though. Hopefully it's not pounding sleet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 it was so weird to not be able to see sunrise through the trees from my front window this morning with the snow on the trees blocking everything like they do in the middle of the summer The link I am posting below has a 21 day free trial of their product if anyone wants to download it and view the dual pol data tonight to watch where the snow/sleet/rain/etc lines set up around the region... the product itself is expensive but I have used the trial before for potential mixing/ice events... http://www.grlevelx.com/gr2analyst/ I also use radar scope which has a nice CC dual pol radar option. It is pay app but maybe one of the best I could find for phone/tablet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 it was so weird to not be able to see sunrise through the trees from my front window this morning with the snow on the trees blocking everything like they do in the middle of the summer The link I am posting below has a 21 day free trial of their product if anyone wants to download it and view the dual pol data tonight to watch where the snow/sleet/rain/etc lines set up around the region... the product itself is expensive but I have used the trial before for potential mixing/ice events... http://www.grlevelx.com/gr2analyst/ Great product. I have all of these. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The foreign guidance (Euro/CMC/UKMET) is still cold enough for mainly snow, though the Euro did trend a bit warmer. I would still favor most of the precip being snow for us as it probably will fall mostly during the more intense period of lift. We'll see what the 12z suite says though. Hopefully it's not pounding sleet! If it's pounding sleet I'll be pounding a wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 NAM thinks the low is going into western Ohio. Oh Nam you are funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 If it's pounding sleet we all my as well forget travel until sometime thursday lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 If it's pounding sleet we all my as well forget travel until sometime thursday lol. NAM is a ton of sleet for you. But, likely wrong. Sends low like into Erie. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yippee lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 lol NAM snowmap is basically nothing besides extreme northern PA seems suspect since it looks like UNV gets at least .25" with 850's below 0... still not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Ohh great ice storm on the way lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Why is the NAM driving the low so far northwest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Nam still north of other guidance, but did come back south a bit from 6Z. Last run only had me getting .3" qpf total. Now back to .7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Why is the NAM driving the low so far northwest? It sucks? lol. Probably so much convection it thinks the low is over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 In ARW we trust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Oh my god those facebook yahoo's are on WITF's Smart Talk today. F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 lol NAM snowmap is basically nothing besides extreme northern PA seems suspect since it looks like UNV gets at least .25" with 850's below 0... still not good. The 06z run was similar; it had a small warm layer around 750 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Oh my god those facebook yahoo's are on WITF's Smart Talk today. F. I saw that. I also noticed that the spelling and grammar on their site are pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 12Z NAM at 1am 6Z GFS same time... uh ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I saw that. I also noticed that the spelling and grammar on their site are pretty bad. Their site is awful. I noticed they have 4-8" for you. Their target audience seems to be dumb people. There, I said it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Their site is awful. I noticed they have 4-8" for you. Their target audience seems to be dumb people. There, I said it. So the general public, a small portion of the MA forum and a majority of the NYC forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Why is the NAM driving the low so far northwest? is the fastest to track low north so it ends up further west than all other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 So the general public, a small portion of the MA forum and a majority of the NYC forum? Hey man. You said it, I didn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The river's gorgeous this morning, I can't really get to it today for photos but man if you can catch a webcam from abd27 or something check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Their site is awful. I noticed they have 4-8" for you. Their target audience seems to be dumb people. There, I said it. This just made burst out laughing.. where in gods name are these people like S&S, EPA Weather, HM (not our HM) getting these crazy snowfall numbers for the LSV? Everyone posting these insane/asinine snow maps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Here was my final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 A met should call in to SmartTalk and rip them to shreds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 pretty reasonable map Zak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Here's CTP's take for MDT Tonight Snow before midnight, then snow and sleet between midnight and 4am, then freezing rain and sleet after 4am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 27. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Wednesday Rain or freezing rain before 1pm, then a slight chance of rain between 1pm and 4pm. High near 34. Calm wind becoming northwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vogan Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I have a question for a red tagger or anyone in the know. I am looking at the text output from the 12Z Nam for LNS and notice the temperatures are given in 50mb increments in the upper levels. What do you look for to deferentiate sleet from freezing rain? Obvoiusly snow would be below 0C through all levels down to 1000mb and rain would be above 0C through all levels down to 1000mb. What temperature profile creates sleet and what profile creates freezing rain. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1022 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014 PAZ056-057-059-063>066-050130- /O.EXT.KCTP.WS.W.0004.140205T0000Z-140205T2100Z/ PERRY-DAUPHIN-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY... LEBANON...CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER 1022 AM EST TUE FEB 4 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO4 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES.* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. A TRANSITION TO RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED BY NOON WEDNESDAY. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL END BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW/ICE COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION ON TREES AND UTILITY LINES MAY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.USE EXTREME CAUTION IF PLANNING TO TRAVEL. FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION...GO TO WEATHER.GOV/CTP OR STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO. REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO [email protected]... POSTING TO THE NWS STATE COLLEGE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET @NWSSTATECOLLEGE WITH THE HASHTAG #CTPWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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