Wmsptwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Heavywx how is IPT holding up with GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The amount of snow on the wires and trees is discouraging to say the least. What I try to do is keep moving my car in and out of its spot 2-3 times an hour to pack down whatever fell around it and keep it somewhat warm so it doesn't get encrusted in ice. Of course if most of this falls overnight I won't be doing that at 3 am. But that helps in situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Allweather, I'm not exactly loving the situation down here in LNS county. What say you? I'm leaving to go to Campus weather service with Eric in about 10 min. I wonder what he's thinking. I'll find out soon enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 SYSTEM/LOW MOVING THROUGH THE TN/MS/OH VALLEYS~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: AVERAGETHE 12Z NAM STARTS OUT WEAKER AT THE 700 HPA LEVEL WITH THISSYSTEM. IT APPEARS TO USE CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK TOSTRENGTHEN THIS SYSTEM MORE THAN THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCELATE TODAY AND TOMORROW, WHICH FORCES ITS SURFACE LOW ON A MOREWESTERLY TRAJECTORY. EVEN IF FEEDBACK WAS NOT INVOLVED HERE, THENAM OCCASIONALLY SHOWS A STRONG BIAS WITH SYSTEMS, WHICH SEEMS TOBE DUE TO ITS WRF PHYSICS PACKAGE. COORDINATION WITH THE WINTERWEATHER DESK YIELDED ANOTHER ODD NAM-SPONSORED SHORTWAVE BEINGSTRENGTHENED AS IT MOVES INTO DRY AIR UP THE APPALACHIANS, WHICHALSO LOOKS SUSPICIOUS. A NON-NAM COMPROMISE IS ADVISED WITHAVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE SYSTEM'S PROGRESSIVE NATURE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Heavywx how is IPT holding up with GFS? IPT is a bit colder than UNV with the layer from 850 to 750 mb getting to just above freezing by 12z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Lots of moisture http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/full_loop.php Wmsptwx I'm calling 8" for the port. What are you predicting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 ****************ALEET ALEET*************************** DT's first guess is in. He's riding the NAM and says the best way to go in this situation is with the milder solutions. Says 3-6" for northern areas before sleet, with 1-3" south ending as ZR/RN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 This isn't going anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Sounds about right to me Pawatch!! I think 5 to 8 is pretty likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Was told the state's already looking to likely call off non-essentials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Was told the state's already looking to likely call off non-essentials. cant imagine that happens in a timely fashion... seems to never happen that way lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 For what it's worth, the EURO and GFS are doing a much better job with the precip over AR/MS/TN right now than the NAM. In addition, the observed wind field looks to match the EURO/GFS surface pressure forecasts better than the NAM's at this point over the same region. I think it's pretty safe to discount the NAM's solution based on those points... and the fact that the NAM is a terrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 cant imagine that happens in a timely fashion... seems to never happen that way lol I'm assuming the threat of ice/sleet makes them remember the clusterf*ck that was 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 ****************ALEET ALEET*************************** DT's first guess is in. He's riding the NAM and says the best way to go in this situation is with the milder solutions. Says 3-6" for northern areas before sleet, with 1-3" south ending as ZR/RN. LOL and that is why DT sucks. HPC said use anything but the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 hmm I hope so...freezing rain is going to be ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Weekend storm still a hit on the GFS ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 RGEM continues it's warmer trend. Now more sleet than snow here in State College, per that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I think it's short range model/ now cast time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 RGEM continues it's warmer trend. Now more sleet than snow here in State College, per that model. Ping ping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Looks like the full scale ice storm back on down here. There is literally no such thing as a south trend this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Lol well north guys our storm is quickly fading into a sleet fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Eric sent this diagram out about an hour ago w/ his thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Eric sent this diagram out about an hour ago w/ his thoughts. BB_map020414.jpg Nice! I can't remember Eric being so bullish with ice in our neck of the woods. This could get ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 RGEM continues it's warmer trend. Now more sleet than snow here in State College, per that model. It's not just the RGEM, seems most guidance is bleeding in the wrong direction the last 24 hours after a few days of colder solutions. I was worried about that honestly, seems models underplay CAD from long lead times, then correct once inside 72 hours or so, but then the last 24 hours the "north trend" can usually not be denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It's not just the RGEM, seems most guidance is bleeding in the wrong direction the last 24 hours after a few days of colder solutions. I was worried about that honestly, seems models underplay CAD from long lead times, then correct once inside 72 hours or so, but then the last 24 hours the "north trend" can usually not be denied. We'll see how things end up. Should still be a lot of frozen precip either way. Actually, this will probably be the most sleet I've ever seen (by a long shot). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Lol well north guys our storm is quickly fading into a sleet fest. I was more hopeful for you, and up there you still should get a good period of thump snows later tonight before mixing, but here just north of Harrisburg I always felt this was more of an ice then snow situation. That is why I was a little perturbed a few days ago at the southern PA people saying relax you will get yours Wed. Nothing is guaranteed and not sure why they were ever so optimistic for central PA. I am glad I got into it yesterday, and I hope you do well tomorrow...I really feel your pain if this ends up further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 We'll see how things end up. Should still be a lot of frozen precip either way. Actually, this will probably be the most sleet I've ever seen (by a long shot). yes, one saving grace, as others have noted, is if the WAA precip comes in a strong enough, it could help keep the column cool a little longer. Seen that many times. The trend towards a stronger primary is not good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 Mostly cloudy here with a temperature of 29.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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