Joe4alb Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Winter storm warning for nyc and LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riverrat Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 WINTER STORM WARNING EXPANDED NORTH AND WEST AND IF YOU BELIEVE THE NAM...NOT ENOUGH! WE'LL AWAIT 00Z/3 GFS AND WWD GUIDANCE BEFORE ANY MORE CHANGES. WE ADDED A TIER OF ADVISORY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF WARNING AREA BUT AM LESS CONFIDENT THERE OF ADVY. MY CONCERN IS PHILLY NORTH TO ALLENTOWN AND NEW BRUNSWICK. ITS HARD TO BELIEVE THE VOLUME OF 00Z/3 NAM QPF. SNOW GROWTH LOOKS VERY GOOD (20MB AT -14C) ON THE NAM NOW IN MOST OF OUR AREA...E PA AND NW NJ CENTERED JUST NW OF I95 AT 12Z MOVES JUST SE OF I95 AT 15Z AND OUT TO SEA AT 18Z. THIS HAS ME THINKING A 2-3 HR OF 1/4 S+ IN MANY AREAS DURING THE MORNING. THE GFS NEEDS TO CONFIRM BUT I AM PREPARED TO SEE THAT DEVELOP. FOR THOSE QUESTIONING THE WARM THICKNESS AND FCSTG HEAVY SNOW...THAT BOTHERS ME AS WELL BUT MY INTERPRETATION OF PCPN MICROPHYSICS IS IF THE COLUMN IS AT OR BELOW ZERO AND SEEDED WITH CRYSTALS FROM ABV... ANY ZL-/IP- ZR- CHANGES TO SNOW. THE THICKNESS IS HIGH BECAUSE THE ONCOMING SHORT WAVE IS WEAK (70M HFC) AND HEIGHTS (850-700 THICKNESS WARM) ARE HIGH LEAVING THE ENTIRE COLUMN AT MARGINAL JUST SUBZERO IN THE I95 AREA NWD. CIRRUS UPSTREAM IN THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY AS SEEN ON 02Z SATELLITE IMAGERY IS YOUR SEEDER. THE DRIVERS FOR THE LIFT APPEAR TO ME TO BE THE 180 KT 250MB JET STREAK THRU MAINE AT 12Z MONDAY AND THE SW 850 WIND OF 50-55KT IN W NC AT 12Z MONDAY PUSHING 9C 850 DEWPOINT OUR WAY...WITH TREMENDOUS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE AT 12Z MONDAY. WATCH FOR POSSIBLE POWER PROBLEMS IN THE 6 INCH WET SNOW ZONE DOWN HERE SOMEWHERE IN S CENTRAL NJ WHERE POWER OUTAGES MAY DEVELOP? Mr. Drag knows of what he speaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
middlesea Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Upton now has 6-8 for NYC,LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 ...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENT MONDAY... NJZ006-105>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-031100- /O.UPG.KOKX.WW.Y.0003.140203T1000Z-140204T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0003.140203T1000Z-140204T0000Z/ HUDSON-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS- NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 954 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 8 INCHES. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * TIMING...A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL CHANGE QUICKLY TO ALL SNOW AROUND DAYBREAK. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...IN PARTICULAR DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. * IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Upton will issue Winter Storm Warnings for most of the metro by midnight IMO with revised snow totals of at least 5 - 8 inches maybe 6 - 10 Upton just issued Winter Storm Warnings for the metro 5 -8 http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.wwus41.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This is the most 6" snowstorms I remember ever seeing in a season. By that I mean nothing too extreme to 12" and are all in that 4-9" range. Incredible with more to come im sure ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I love how if Monmouth were still part of KNYC WFO, it would show 6-8" but Mt Holly still have 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This is the most 6" snowstorms I remember ever seeing in a season. By that I mean nothing too extreme to 12" and are all in that 4-9" range. Incredible with more to come im sure ! Where are you located?....iv had 11.8 and 11" the last 2 storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Oh yea. I just got an advisory.. I'm just acroaa the river from NYC.. hudson county also got warnings ..1 mile away from me (bergen county) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 0z RGEM on first glance doesn't look as wet as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I love how if Monmouth were still part of KNYC WFO, it would show 6-8" but Mt Holly still have 4-6" What difference does it make what mt holly says? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 0z RGEM on first glance doesn't look as wet as the NAM. Looks about the same as the 18z run...pretty much what I thought it would look like..around .75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I love how if Monmouth were still part of KNYC WFO, it would show 6-8" but Mt Holly still have 4-6" Yeah Mt Holly is going very conservative with this storm, though with the latest short-term models, I'd expect them to bump forecast to at least match Upton's at tonight's 12:30 update cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Woodbridge just canceled schools. We are out of snow days and this will come out of break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 So discounting the NAM....we still show a significant snowfall on all the models. I still think 4" is the magic number for much of NE NJ/NYC....with higher amounts down near Trenton and philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Do you have a map? It takes awhile for WxBell to update. Looks about the same as the 18z run...pretty much what I thought it would look like..around .75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Updated http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The RGEM is 18-19mm for KNYC. Looks like about 22mm for PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 So discounting the NAM....we still show a significant snowfall on all the models. I still think 4" is the magic number for much of NE NJ/NYC....with higher amounts down near Trenton and philly Upton disagrees...we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Updated http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Haha I'm about 1 mile north of the 6-8" line so I'm 4-6":p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 What time should the lighter snow start and what time should it turn heavy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Haha I'm about 1 mile north of the 6-8" line so I'm 4-6":pMe too. I just got an advisory while less than 1 mile away..they have a warning lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Me too. I just got an advisory while less than 1 mile away..they have a warning lolwell actually I'm in the warning for 5-8" but the map actually has me in 4-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 00z RGEM is a big hit http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/512_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This is why feel like the earlier discussions around an advisory versus a warning do belong on this forum. At the update, guidance and trends screamed for a warning in the NYC metro area. NWS is fantastic, but of our analysis of the models can't allow for us to predict and even question their decisions without arguments, a piece of what we are doing here is lost. Enjoy the snow crew! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Updated http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php ..i don't know..i'm currently @41* @10pm..still have my doubts with this one. I'll be shocked if i get the 6-8 inches that upton says i'm getting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Advisory for 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 hr 12 mod snow from ttn-nyc 00z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 hr 15 mod snow up to hpn heavy snow ttn-ewr temps look very mild for snj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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