Chicago WX Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I think Sunday could be sneaky for central IN. Models have been hinting at maybe a decent band somewhere in the neighborhood. Probably a 2-3" at the very best kind of deal, and fairly "localized"...but something to watch IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 2.1" in my grid specifically. MKX lowered amounts down a bit. Looks about on track though. NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 1-3" for the SEMI my call. DTW needs 25" more to break the all time seasonal record. Any snowfall helps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I think Sunday could be sneaky for central IN. Models have been hinting at maybe a decent band somewhere in the neighborhood. Probably a 2-3" at the very best kind of deal, and fairly "localized"...but something to watch IMO. NAM is getting stronger with the confluence and weaker with the 'system'.... this may trend in an unfavorable direction. Far southern areas of the subforum, as in along the Ohio river and into KY could do well early next week. Just hard to get anything to come north or stronger in this flow....not to mention pieces of energy parading thru like a conveyor belt. Something needs to slow down or get some space around it. Where's the se ridge when you need it, at least a mini one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The NAM has become weak and dry for this area, but the GFS still has a decent little event with a stripe of 0.15" across Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 NAM is getting stronger with the confluence and weaker with the 'system'.... this may trend in an unfavorable direction. Far southern areas of the subforum, as in along the Ohio river and into KY could do well early next week. Just hard to get anything to come north or stronger in this flow....not to mention pieces of energy parading thru like a conveyor belt. Something needs to slow down or get some space around it. Where's the se ridge when you need it, at least a mini one. The NAM has proved to be worthless lately. But, I agree with your overall sentiment. I'd still keep an eye on Sunday...in central IN and possibly east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 What a useless 'storm'. A DAB for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Another I-88/80 targeted wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Wow this is it until the pattern 'changes', 'reloads' or 'resets'. But this is what I remember February's being ... slow ... boring. I think we have been spoiled with highly active Febs lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 7, 2014 Author Share Posted February 7, 2014 Trends not looking good for LAF, at least for Saturday. I agree with Tim that Sunday could be a little sneaky somewhere, favoring areas south of here at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Been watching the potential for next weekend for the last few runs. Latest GFS is coming kind of dry? .05-.15 QPF over NE IL, SE WI. LOL nice.. Miss. Cleo in the house... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 With not much snow in the near future, maybe we should be posting area "River and Lakes" ice thicknesses. Something to measure anyway lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 1.333" final call I'll bet Alek has to slant stick for that final 0.033" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 This is where Alek goes positive. Always, the contrarian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 This is where Alek goes positive. Always, the contrarian. 1.333" isn't really that bullish. EDIT: the tightest cluster on the ORD sref plumes (still below the mean) is 1.4"-1.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 bullish LOT ATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THAT THE FAST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST HAS EVOLVED. A RATHER STOUT PV ANOMALY...CURRENTLY BEING EJECTED EASTWARD ACROSS IDAHO...IS EXPECTED TO TRACK RIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE MORNING...WITH SNOW LIKELY ONSETTING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AROUND MIDDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE QUIET IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0 DEGREES C PER KM. THIS COMBINED WITH GOOD SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING PV ANOMALY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS EVEN A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL BUFFER SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE A VERY DEEP DGZ...POSSIBLY 200 MB DEEP AT TIMES...DURING THE PERIOD OF BEST SNOWFALL. WITH THIS IN MIND...I WENT WITH A 16 TO 18 TO 1 RATIO FOR THE SNOW TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND THIS SHOULD YIELD 2 TO 3 INCHES IN MOST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP AROUND 4 INCHES GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 18z NAM was north. 1-3" in my grid still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 1.333" final callI'll go 1.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 snaked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 18z GFS. My call, 1.8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Think the Euro's a tad dry and the GFS is a tad wet. NAM looks strange. I'll go with 1.5" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 No NAM update. No storm to follow. Sick Addiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Wow, it really bit the dust up this way. Be lucky to get an inch. EDIT: Included the 48 hour map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The 0z NAM has like 42 hours of light snow that adds up to 0.21" LE for LAF. Woo! Though the second half of that is most likely dumb NAM fantasy snow. But, mood flakes will be enjoyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Remember when the GFS showed this as a western gulf bomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Skilling going 2-4" but seems to be because his RPM has the second wave of snow further north across chi metro lasting into Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 21z SREF mean for YYZ tomorrow night and Sunday is 2.3". There's been a notable shift north with the 2nd wave on a number of the individual members. RGEM has also shifted north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 The GFS is actually wetter than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Man, if the RGEM is right, you could argue 4" here between both waves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 21z SREF mean for YYZ tomorrow night and Sunday is 2.3". There's been a notable shift north with the 2nd wave on a number of the individual members. RGEM has also shifted north. And more then enough time for a few more small shifts to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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