February Forecast Discussion

[Blizzardo]

Im 27 but i remember the shear dissapointment that was march 2001. Forecasted to get 20-30" of snow and i got 7" and rain/snow. I hear you im just stoked with the possibilities and who wouldnt be. My excitement is quelled inside, by sunday/monday we'll see if this storm really does want to deliver the goods paul.

Ehh, lets see what it looks like Wed. Sunday and monday still too soon but it would be nice to see it still there

[PB GFI]

Im 27 but i remember the shear dissapointment that was march 2001. Forecasted to get 20-30" of snow and i got 7" and rain/snow. I hear you im just stoked with the possibilities and who wouldnt be. My excitement is quelled inside, by sunday/monday we'll see if this storm really does want to deliver the goods paul.

A major storm is really seen by all , and if I had to bet , this is the one  I would go all in on ,  I like this from DC to Boston . 

Prob in a big way , I just wana  see how Wed shakes out . But im a buyer of this one because the ensembles pretty much agree , so I  will take my chances

[REDMK6GLI]

A major storm is really seen by all , and if I had to bet , this is the one I would go all in on , I like this from DC to Boston .

Prob in a big way , I just wana see how Wed shakes out . But im a buyer of this one because the ensembles pretty much agree , so I will take my chances

With your track record this winter, coming from you its must mean something. Im with you on this storm paul, heres to hoping you score another coup with this beauty

[BrooklynSnow97]

What The Wednesday system does will determine what this does

[REDMK6GLI]

What The Wednesday system does will determine what this does

Having it cut would be better for us my friend. Im all in for the weekend storm

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

What The Wednesday system does will determine what this does

 

It will join with the PV over Southern Canada and rotate the PV to help eject another lobe of energy. In some ways, having the mid week storm closer to the coast will help the weekend storm greatly. 

[ace0927]

And another epic winter weather event in the south, I think the city of Atlanta will evacuate a day in advance if this one happens[/quote

Based on the 500mb maps....maybe the best we have seen all winter

[ace0927]

And another epic winter weather event in the south, I think the city of Atlanta will evacuate a day in advance if this one happens[/quote

Based on the 500mb maps....maybe the best we have seen all winter

[REDMK6GLI]

That storm down south was pretty historic. Shame they dont know how to handle snow/ice like we do. A few inches and were going along like business as usual. In SE a few inches of snow everyone goes crazy haha

[jm1220]

That storm down south was pretty historic. Shame they dont know how to handle snow/ice like we do. A few inches and were going along like business as usual. In SE a few inches of snow everyone goes crazy haha

The city of Atlanta had I believe less than a dozen snow removal trucks. That's a recipe for disaster in a situation like this. I think 3" in one storm is in their top-ten list.

[pazzo83]

That storm down south was pretty historic. Shame they dont know how to handle snow/ice like we do. A few inches and were going along like business as usual. In SE a few inches of snow everyone goes crazy haha

 

You could say the same about Category 1 hurricanes between here and there.

[NEG NAO]

if the 6Z GFS verifies for the Feb 5 -6 storm we get 5 -6 inches of snow followed by a period of ice and then a soaking rain temps just  above freezing then the storm on the 9th we get over a foot of snow because ratio's will be at least 15 : 1 with the very cold air in place - so in a 5 day period some areas will receive close to 18 - 20 inches or more of snow which would guarantee a 40 inch plus winter

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KEWR

[chietanen]

That storm down south was pretty historic. Shame they dont know how to handle snow/ice like we do. A few inches and were going along like business as usual. In SE a few inches of snow everyone goes crazy haha

 

They also had snow falling onto warm asphalt with air temps in the 20's.  I think a similar situation, as far as ice goes, could have happened anywhere, including here.  Add in hundreds of thousands of people all leaving work and school at once and you have a recipe for disaster.

[jm1220]

You could say the same about Category 1 hurricanes between here and there.

We're uniquely prone to surge here due to our geography, in ways almost anyone else isn't outside of New Orleans and Tampa. Isaac did a large amount of damage to SE LA last year even though it was a minimal hurricane. Without the new levee systems in place, New Orleans may have sustained major flooding. I think a storm like Sandy would have been just as devastating to a southern city prone to surges.

[NaoPos]

if the 6Z GFS verifies for the Feb 5 -6 storm we get 5 -6 inches of snow followed by a period of ice and then a soaking rain temps just above freezing then the storm on the 9th we get over a foot of snow because ratio's will be at least 15 : 1 with the very cold air in place - so in a 5 day period some areas will receive close to 18 - 20 inches or more of snow which would guarantee a 40 inch plus winter

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KEWR

Dude!!!!! Are you really talking ratios 10+'days out????!!!!! C'mon bro.... There might not even be a storm

[SnoSki14]

You could say the same about Category 1 hurricanes between here and there.

Exactly, it's all about preparation and having the equipment to handle these situations. I know the northerners were probably laughing at the Atlanta situation, but they or even us wouldn't be laughing if we had the same amount of snow removal and salt equipment that Atlanta has.

 

Perhaps things still wouldn't be as bad because we have experience with snow and ice and have things like snow tires/chains but it would still be pretty bad over here. Going back to the hurricane situation, we can't even handle a Category 1 hurricane due to a complete lack of resources and preparation while a Category 1 down south is like a windy rainstorm for them and they were probably laughing at us.

[BoulderWX]

This is our MECS/HECS storm of the year right here paul. Ill take a driving rainstorm wednesday to cash in on this strong pornography. This has the POTENTIAL to be a crippling NESIS 4+ blizzard from DC-BOSTON

wow, 11 days out and this is how people are talking... no wonder everyone gets so bent out of shape when these events dont occur..

[donsutherland1]

The city of Atlanta had I believe less than a dozen snow removal trucks. That's a recipe for disaster in a situation like this. I think 3" in one storm is in their top-ten list.

Since 1930, Atlanta has had 12 storms with 4" or more snowfall. The 12 biggest snowfalls were:

 

1. 8.3", 1/23/1940

2. 8.0", 1/29-30/1966

3. 7.9", 3/24/1983

4. 7.0", 1/12-14/1982

5. 5.0", 1/18/1992

6. 4.4", 1/9-10/2011

7. 4.2", 2/17-18/1979, 1/7/1988, 3/13/1993, and 3/1/2009

11. 4.0", 2/10/1934 and 3/11/1960

[RU848789]

Exactly, it's all about preparation and having the equipment to handle these situations. I know the northerners were probably laughing at the Atlanta situation, but they or even us wouldn't be laughing if we had the same amount of snow removal and salt equipment that Atlanta has.

 

Perhaps things still wouldn't be as bad because we have experience with snow and ice and have things like snow tires/chains but it would still be pretty bad over here. Going back to the hurricane situation, we can't even handle a Category 1 hurricane due to a complete lack of resources and preparation while a Category 1 down south is like a windy rainstorm for them and they were probably laughing at us.

Supposedly, though, Atlanta had enough equipment to at least pre-salt the interstates and decided not to do that ahead of the storms.  That could have prevented the flash freeze they had where the initial precip melted and then froze, as temps dropped and the precip changed to snow - that certainly wouldn't have happened here (sometimes we have so much salt on the highways before a significant event that I think it's snow, lol).  They also certainly knew enough to cancel schools, as WWAdvisories were up the day before for snow potential and these were upgraded to warnings several hours before the decision on school closings are usually made (those decisions are usually made by 5-6 am the day of an event, if it hasn't started yet).  Horrible planning. 

[jm1220]

Since 1930, Atlanta has had 12 storms with 4" or more snowfall. The 12 biggest snowfalls were:

 

1. 8.3", 1/23/1940

2. 8.0", 1/29-30/1966

3. 7.9", 3/24/1983

4. 7.0", 1/12-14/1982

5. 5.0", 1/18/1992

6. 4.4", 1/9-10/2011

7. 4.2", 2/17-18/1979, 1/7/1988, 3/13/1993, and 3/1/2009

11. 4.0", 2/10/1934 and 3/11/1960

Interesting. Had the storm tracked a little further north, the snow could have made it well into their top 10.

[IrishRob17]

Supposedly, though, Atlanta had enough equipment to at least pre-salt the interstates and decided not to do that ahead of the storms.  That could have prevented the flash freeze they had where the initial precip melted and then froze, as temps dropped and the precip changed to snow - that certainly wouldn't have happened here (sometimes we have so much salt on the highways before a significant event that I think it's snow, lol).  They also certainly knew enough to cancel schools, as WWAdvisories were up the day before for snow potential and these were upgraded to warnings several hours before the decision on school closings are usually made (those decisions are usually made by 5-6 am the day of an event, if it hasn't started yet).  Horrible planning. 

Thats not good either, if salt is applied too heavily it loses its effectiveness.

http://www.safewinterroads.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/The-Snowfighters-Handbook.pdf

[RU848789]

Didn't see it posted here, but I thought WxRisk/DT made a brilliant post last night about next week's threats.  I know he can be an arrogant _____, but he also does a nice job of combining elements of meteorology and model interpretation and analysis in his posts and while he's typically a skeptic and doesn't "bark" this far in advance most of the time he's kind of barking now.  I will say this: when he barks I definitely pay more attention.

 

https://www.facebook.com/#!/notes/wxriskcom/-alert-the-bombopolarderechovortexgenesis-is-coming-feb-1-10/640369076010354
 

[Stormlover74]

Exactly, it's all about preparation and having the equipment to handle these situations. I know the northerners were probably laughing at the Atlanta situation, but they or even us wouldn't be laughing if we had the same amount of snow removal and salt equipment that Atlanta has.

 

Perhaps things still wouldn't be as bad because we have experience with snow and ice and have things like snow tires/chains but it would still be pretty bad over here. Going back to the hurricane situation, we can't even handle a Category 1 hurricane due to a complete lack of resources and preparation while a Category 1 down south is like a windy rainstorm for them and they were probably laughing at us.

One can't really prepare for hours of 80-90 mph winds with millions of deciduous trees, not to mention being the most densely populated part of the country, above ground power lines, etc.

[IsentropicLift]

Having it cut would be better for us my friend. Im all in for the weekend storm

If you live on the immediate coast sure, but aside from that you shouldn't give up on mid-week.

[NEG NAO]

Dude!!!!! Are you really talking ratios 10+'days out????!!!!! C'mon bro.... There might not even be a storm

Dude ! Can you read english ? I said if the 6Z GFS verifies !!! Understand ? And with 850's dropping from -3 to -19 by the end of the storm and surface temps in the low 20's that signals higher ratio's as arctic air is phasing with the storm!

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KEWR

[Hailstorm]

if the 6Z GFS verifies for the Feb 5 -6 storm we get 5 -6 inches of snow followed by a period of ice and then a soaking rain temps just  above freezing then the storm on the 9th we get over a foot of snow because ratio's will be at least 15 : 1 with the very cold air in place - so in a 5 day period some areas will receive close to 18 - 20 inches or more of snow which would guarantee a 40 inch plus winter

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KEWR

What are the top analogs for the 2/8 storm? 

[RU848789]

Supposedly, though, Atlanta had enough equipment to at least pre-salt the interstates and decided not to do that ahead of the storms.  That could have prevented the flash freeze they had where the initial precip melted and then froze, as temps dropped and the precip changed to snow - that certainly wouldn't have happened here (sometimes we have so much salt on the highways before a significant event that I think it's snow, lol).  They also certainly knew enough to cancel schools, as WWAdvisories were up the day before for snow potential and these were upgraded to warnings several hours before the decision on school closings are usually made (those decisions are usually made by 5-6 am the day of an event, if it hasn't started yet).  Horrible planning. 

 

 

Thats not good either, if salt is applied too heavily it loses its effectiveness.

http://www.safewinterroads.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/The-Snowfighters-Handbook.pdf

 

Great link.  However, I'm not sure what you're referring to.  The main points about pretreatment of roads with a brine solution (or even solid salt) in the guidance didn't mention much in the way of downside.  And applying salt too heavily doesn't mean the salt doesn't work - it just means you'll be wasting some of the salt as the traffic will displace some salt to the side of the road before it has a chance to work, which is why several applications are done throughout a storm, rather than one huge application.  And in this case, there is no question that pretreating the interstates in Atlanta would've significantly reduced the icing that occurred. 

[REDMK6GLI]

If you live on the immediate coast sure, but aside from that you shouldn't give up on mid-week.

Not giving up on it but not getting that excited over it. Especially what potentially could be cooking for the weekend that looks to be alot bigger

[Hailstorm]

Having it cut would be better for us my friend. Im all in for the weekend storm

I would rather have 4-8" of snow and some sleet/ice from the mid-week system followed by prolonged bitter cold for the rest of February with no MECS after that rather than having to go through a midweek major warm rainstorm followed by a major snowstorm on Feb 8 that precedes a torch following that. I'm a big fan of preserving our snow pack for as long as possible.

[jm1220]

One can't really prepare for hours of 80-90 mph winds with millions of deciduous trees, not to mention being the most densely populated part of the country, above ground power lines, etc.

Exactly, I don't think the Southeast would have had an easier time from a direct hit from a storm like Sandy. What also made it more difficult up here was the cold weather and snow which came immediately after, and the millions of people with no power or heat. And the surge, which caused the most damage, is a unique threat to this region. South Florida for example has a very steep offshore slope and even Andrew brought surge less high than Sandy brought us.