REDMK6GLI Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 As january winds down, it looks like february wont be doing the same. We're going to have cold air and plenty of storm chances, including the possible super bowl weekend storm. Discuss the february forecasts here, hope all get a snowy end to meteorlogical winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Just downright brutal...and stormy..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 Just downright brutal...and stormy..... Sure does look like a consensus to a cold and stormy february looks more likely. Will we be able to get big storm along the east coast? Thats something we're going to be looking into as january ends and thats if it doesnt happen in january too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Look at that bulls-eye over us and the OH valley. With that said, I hope NYC gets below zero during that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 How about 8 - 14? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 CFSv2 H5 maps look good with -EPO, especially week 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The super long range models are predicting a gradient pattern developing mid-month. That should keep us cold but nowhere near as cold as what we're currently experiencing as the PV shifts NW into central Canada. That will open the door, or should I say leave the door open for storminess, but it might pose PPType problems as we get more southwest flow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The super long range models are predicting a gradient pattern developing mid-month. That should keep us cold but nowhere near as cold as what we're currently experiencing as the PV shifts NW into central Canada. That will open the door, or should I say leave the door open for storminess, but it might pose PPType problems as we get more southwest flow events. That sounds very February 1994 esque, gradient patterns work well for I-195 north as long as cold air source drills HP into our area, (Example here: All in Feb, Feb 2003 is the KU of gradient events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 That sounds very February 1994 esque, gradient patterns work well for I-195 north as long as cold air source drills HP into our area, (Example here: All in Feb, Feb 2003 is the KU of gradient events feb. 2003 is a perfect gradient pattern that's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 feb. 2003 is a perfect gradient pattern that's for sure Bro no offense but you state the obvious all the time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The 00z GFS has the SB weekend threat back with a vengeance. It also has the follow up system. PDII had a similar gradient pattern to work with didn't it? I hate to bring up that system as an analog but the 850mb and 500mb maps have similarities. Hour 276 is just pure porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The 00z GFS has the SB weekend threat back with a vengeance. It also has the follow up system. PDII had a similar gradient pattern to work with didn't it? I hate to bring up that system as an analog but the 850mb and 500mb maps have similarities. Hour 276 is just pure porn. do you have a pay site because I am not out that far yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The 00z GFS has the SB weekend threat back with a vengeance. It also has the follow up system. PDII had a similar gradient pattern to work with didn't it? I hate to bring up that system as an analog but the 850mb and 500mb maps have similarities. Hour 276 is just pure porn. PDII was pure STJ moisture driven by the moderate Nino that year over a huge cold dome and massive high pressure. I doubt we would see something like that again without a massive STJ presence and strong resistance to the north. 02-03 is really a great example of how Ninos are better for more of us south of New England than Ninas are. A lot of STJ-driven systems that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 do you have a pay site because I am not out that far yetyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 If next week's system doesn't work out then February will be loaded with action. You can't go wrong with a nice gradient pattern as long as you're on the cold side of it. The cold looks relentless on the gfs, so expect a lot of freeze ups and increasing heating bills. I'd be shocked if many don't go below zero if the gfs is correct, perhaps more than once. Obviously it won't get as cold if we get a storm next week and I hope we do because I'll gladly trade the very cold for a nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Sorry for the silly questions but is there a link to a free euro site thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The threats just keep on coming on the 00z GFS beyond day 10. That gradient pattern locked into place. Just for fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Looks like 0z GFS is showing warmer temps and rain for the super bowl. Long way out and will change many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Looks like 0z GFS is showing warmer temps and rain for the super bowl. Long way out and will change many times. That's not going to end up being rain. I see it going one of two ways, either the first system for SB weekend is relatively weak with a light to moderate snow event, possibly ice event or the energy from the two systems is going to consolidate and we're going to end up with one blockbuster system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 2 Days ago in the Jan disco I put on the day 15, and said that trough in the East will be deeper , and new Day 13 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Now , once again easy error to pick out here . High connected Heights, look how deep the trough is in Europe . The euro is error prone in dumping the cold air west of the Rockies . Day 15 trough will be deeper in the East , which matches the GFS CFSV2 cold during this period . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 2 Days ago in the Jan disco I put on the day 15, and said that trough in the East will be deeper , and new Day 13 . Low and behold! Not to mention the seemless amount of storm chances as well paul. It would be a slap in the face to not got a megalopolis KU that'll produce snow in feet. The STJ opens up and that northern stream phases the rest will be he history. Yanks still pretty enthusiastic about the superbowl threat as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Low and behold! Not to mention the seemless amount of storm chances as well paul. It would be a slap in the face to not got a megalopolis KU that'll produce snow in feet. The STJ opens up and that northern stream phases the rest will be he history. Yanks still pretty enthusiastic about the superbowl threat as well. Truly epic if it's right. That's an extreme -AO and almost the entire US is below normal. Weeklies retrograde the -EPO at week 4 but even if that's right...there's no torch to be found. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 CFSV2 . Trough , Trough , Trough ,Trough . These are colder looks than the JMA ( which at 2M is cold enough ) . We started this current pattern Jan 21st in the East and the CFSV2 hold onto it through the 28th . I cant bite on ( 40 days ) . " if that happens " you will talk about this winter like people speak of 77 - 78 . Its not like its not in the cards . Throw the week 4 Euro away , its Toilet paper . I know John likes the midweek storm , but I am gona to have to see a little retrogression of the vortex before I cant bite . The Canadian is the closest to the midweek idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 CFSV2 . Trough , Trough , Trough ,Trough . These are colder looks than the JMA ( which at 2M is cold enough ) . We started this current pattern Jan 21st in the East and the CFSV2 hold onto it through the 28th . I cant bite on ( 40 days ) . " if that happens " you will talk about this winter like people speak of 77 - 78 . Its not like its not in the cards . Throw the week 4 Euro away , its Toilet paper . I know John likes the midweek storm , but I am gona to have to see a little retrogression of the vortex before I cant bite . The Canadian is the closest to the midweek idea When one of these storms do bite its going to clamp its fangs on us. Wont take much to produce something truly for the books this winter that'll put what we just has to shame. I want to see what we had on LI february 2013 from DC-BOSTON before this pattern is over paul, that is how excited i am for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The latest JMA out this morning has February 1-7 cold here and a beginning of a moderation in temperature after that as the pattern finally relaxes. So I am guessing our best winter storm potential will be sometime during the first week while the best cold is still available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The latest JMA out this morning has February 1-7 cold here and a beginning of a moderation in temperature after that as the pattern finally relaxes. So I am guessing our best winter storm potential will be sometime during the first week while the best cold is still available. Y201401.D2312_gl2.png 2.png It maybe a case where we go from FRIGID to normal Cold after Feb 15 , that still gives us a 25 day extreme period . The problem is , that the " normal " cold air is going is going to be met with a SE ridge . Take a look at the 500 mb JMA , the height across the top are in tact through week 4 , which tells me LOW level cold air is our source region and anything coming out of the Panhandle etc is gona be met with stubborn air . 1994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 CFSV2 - The JMA weeklies have owned the winter since NOV The CFSV2 has been really good since early JAN . But I think close enough to the 500 mb look of the JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 It maybe a case where we go from FRIGID to normal Cold after Feb 15 , that still gives us a 25 day extreme period . The problem is , that the " normal " cold air is going is going to be met with a SE ridge . Take a look at the 500 mb JMA , the height across the top are in tact through week 4 , which tells me LOW level cold air is our source region and anything coming out of the Panhandle etc is gona be met with stubborn air . 1994 After the first week may be a mixed bag or rain storm with a very icy transition zone somewhere in the Northeast. It is still too early to guess where the specific boundary will set up. But my guess if we want a storm with all frozen the best shot will be the first week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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