PB GFI Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 After the first week may be a mixed bag or rain storm with a very icy transition zone somewhere in the Northeast. It is still too early to guess where the specific boundary will set up. But my guess if we want a storm with all frozen will be during the first week. D 15 Euro , cold reloading , im on the train til Feb 15 Min , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 D 15 Euro , cold reloading , im on the train til Feb 15 Min , Well week 3-4 are always lower skill on these weekly products. The highest probability for snow and cold as of this moment is week 1. And week two may be a toss up that could go either way. But I like the idea of a gradient pattern becoming established by the 15-20th where the heart of the cold eventually shifts back to the Dakotas or Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Looks like the models are signaling a overrunning pattern in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Looks like HM just punted the threat for next week and is essentially not impressed with the pattern. And it gets more disheartening when he keeps on bringing up the 1980 analog for the pattern moving forward. That year was horrible for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Looks like HM just punted the threat for next week and is essentially not impressed with the pattern. And it gets more disheartening when he keeps on bringing up the 1980 analog for the pattern moving forward. That year was horrible for us. Which HM? The real one or the fake one? The pattern doesn't look terrible at all moving forward. We just need to stay on the colder side of the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Sure, if you're looking for a Boxing Day redux the pattern isn't supportive. But the pattern is very favorable for miller B's, ice storms and over running events. See February 2003 and winter 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 Sure, if you're looking for a Boxing Day redux the pattern isn't supportive. But the pattern is very favorable for miller B's, ice storms and over running events. See February 2003 and winter 1994. Boxing day "might" be plausible if we had a very well established west based -NAO. I mean if we had that we'd be talking how much snow we can get to pad what would be close to all time record snowfall numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Looks like HM just punted the threat for next week and is essentially not impressed with the pattern. And it gets more disheartening when he keeps on bringing up the 1980 analog for the pattern moving forward. That year was horrible for us. What in the eff are you talking about? These are his two posts today: I admit the Wed-Fri period isn't looking pretty on NWP but still obviously needs watching. Someone brought up March 1980 and there are actually some similarities there with the PV etc. It's worth checking out the upper-air maps if you get a chance. There is no denying Feb's potential. Everyone and their mothers can see the writing on the wall there. Just like in December, a -EPO, SE ridge moisture train with plenty of cold air available, ala 93-94. So, yeah, that period will become interesting as we get closer and hone in on each individual pulse of moisture (perhaps more..?) streaming in. But next week had that phasing potential for a significant cyclone. Meh... The 6z GFS broke off the EPO block into the west -NAO regions, again, around Feb 5th or so and that's when it sends in a big storm in fantasy land. Looks like our climo peak in snow won't let us down this year, given the teleconnections. If youre going to put words in people's mouths (especially good mets who are an incredible asset here), at least attempt to get it close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Boxing day "might" be plausible if we had a very well established west based -NAO. I mean if we had that we'd be talking how much snow we can get to pad what would be close to all time record snowfall numbers. The upcoming pattern is night and day from December 2010. We have no west based -NAO blocking. We don't have a pattern that's going to be favorable for deep troughs or miller A's. We have a gradient pattern. Take it and be happy. Our last chance at a true miller A for the forceable future is probably mid next week as the energy rounds the base of the PV and attempts to come up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 What in the eff are you talking about? These are his two posts today: If youre going to put words in people's mouths (especially good mets who are an incredible asset here), at least attempt to get it close. I was about to say the say thing expect in a polite tone.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 The upcoming pattern is night and day from December 2010. We have no west based -NAO blocking. We don't have a pattern that's going to be favorable for deep troughs or miller A's. We have a gradient pattern. Take it and be happy. Our last chance at a true miller A for the forceable future is probably mid next week as the energy rounds the base of the PV and attempts to come up the coast. Spot on my friend. Miller B's arent bad at all if they can bomb out fast enough and hook up with a STJ moisture feed. Also overrunning isnt exactly sub par either, a la feb. 2003 ( mod. El nino ) but the chances are still there. Miller A would be nice next week but that is getting less likely.... For now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Gradient patterns can be pretty awesome and can usually deliver to large area unlike typical coastals. Overrunning events can be loaded with moisture and yes Feb 2003 is as good as it gets though I would never say we'll see that again this winter. Also there are often numerous events and you don't have to worry about phasing or OTS solutions. The biggest problem is of course the SE ridging and if there's too much to the point where the storm cuts further inland. With all of this cold available, ice storms could definitely occur even if the low cuts, but I think we'll be on the cold side of this gradient. It's not a huge coastal year where we see a wound up sub 980 coastal just offshore though we've seen more coastal type storms than I thought we would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 What in the eff are you talking about? These are his two posts today: If youre going to put words in people's mouths (especially good mets who are an incredible asset here), at least attempt to get it close. I am just stating what he implied. His catch phrase "had" in the sentence "But next week had that phasing potential for a significant cyclone" gives it away since he's already using the past tense. And his use of "meh" tells me that he is just not that invested in next week anymore. Notice that I used the word "essentially," in my previous post, meaning I was just paraphrasing. I was referring to next week's potential, not February's pattern, regarding his thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Sneaky little system on the 31st/1st. Phase is once again a little late, a little too far offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I am just stating what he implied. His catch phrase "had" in the sentence "But next week had that phasing potential for a significant cyclone" gives it away since he's already using the past tense. And his use of "meh" tells me that he is just not that invested in next week anymore. Notice that I used the word "essentially," in my previous post, meaning I was just paraphrasing. I was referring to next week's potential, not February's pattern, regarding his thoughts. This is the february discussion thread...hence the assumption you were discussing february. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 This is the february discussion thread...hence the assumption you were discussing february. That was my mistake, my bad. So many topics active at the moment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 The system for the Super Bowl is still on the 12z GFS but it definitely looks like the appetizer to the system that follows on the fourth. That system looks epic at this range and has been showing up consistently for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Sure, if you're looking for a Boxing Day redux the pattern isn't supportive. But the pattern is very favorable for miller B's, ice storms and over running events. See February 2003 and winter 1994. I'd much rather a widespread PDII than a Boxing Day. I did great but 20 miles to my west got less than half what I did. Too nailbiting and only an isolated area really got the brunt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 I'd much rather a widespread PDII than a Boxing Day. I did great but 20 miles to my west got less than half what I did. Too nailbiting and only an isolated area really got the brunt. It's so early but that system on the fourth and the associated 850mb low nearly cuts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Well it may not be a mega storm for super bowl weekend but it definitely looks like it will be precipitating during the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 Well it may not be a mega storm for super bowl weekend but it definitely looks like it will be precipitating during the game. All in or nothing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 All in or nothing! We kind of end up on the wrong side of the gradient on the Euro. This could very well end up as an excessive QPF period should most of this fall as rain. Seems like a steady train of systems right over the gradient to begin February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 We kind of end up on the wrong side of the gradient on the Euro. This could very well end up as an excessive QPF period should most of this fall as rain. Seems like a steady train of systems right over the gradient to begin February. Is this rainy setup even remotely possible? Because that would suck if that is all we get out of this pattern. Side note - I'm sure all of the AccuWeather posters are jumping off a bridge right now based on this Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 We kind of end up on the wrong side of the gradient on the Euro. This could very well end up as an excessive QPF period should most of this fall as rain. Seems like a steady train of systems right over the gradient to begin February. Well getting and staying on the right side of a gradient pattern is pretty difficult outside of SNE typically. Those rooting for a PDII redux in the upcoming gradient pattern may be wishful thinking as HECS overrunning events such as that are VERY difficult to pull off. Without any kind of established and non-overwhelming -NAO this is what we're going to have to deal with :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Neg EPO. Temps will beat the models. Esp 9 days out The baroclinic zone prob near the Mason Dixon line. Thst system is coming out. Amarillo to AC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Well getting and staying on the right side of a gradient pattern is pretty difficult outside of SNE typically. Those rooting for a PDII redux in the upcoming gradient pattern may be wishful thinking as HECS overrunning events such as that are VERY difficult to pull off. Without any kind of established and non-overwhelming -NAO this is what we're going to have to deal with :/ You greatly changed your tune from being very bullish to very bearish in a matter of 12 hours about this pattern. What happened to your optimism? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Is this rainy setup even remotely possible? Because that would suck if that is all we get out of this pattern. Side note - I'm sure all of the AccuWeather posters are jumping off a bridge right now based on this Euro run. Well we know how accurate the Euro is 9 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Eh, we probably won't know anything until the late January system is figured out. Not to mention, the energy involved is in a very poor data region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 You greatly changed your tune from being very bullish to very bearish in a matter of 12 hours about this pattern. What happened to your optimism? I am bullish and hope for KU after KU but i also like to be reasonable. When someone says "03' redux when a gradient pattern shows up and you see a wave of LP you have to REALLY look at what had to happen for the entire region to get almost or over 20" and rank that high on the KU chart ". Im super excited that our snow chances are far from over and middle next week threat im PRAYING to happen because it could be one of those high-end KU's with the sheer amount of moisture, cold air and size of the system. We just need patience over this weekend to get some clarity. Still LOTS of sampling to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 Neg EPO. Temps will beat the models. Esp 9 days out The baroclinic zone prob near the Mason Dixon line. Thst system is coming out. Amarillo to AC I agree. The low level cold air will hold its ground as one wave or multiple shoot east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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