REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 March 01.... 30+ was progged for PHL-NYC. Was going to surpass JAN 1996. That wouldve handly beat 96'. 96' is just a TOUGH storm to knock off on the NESIS chart. I love the 8/9 threat. The 15th also has legs but next weekends system already has a great deal of support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The constant comparisons to the 96 storm, PD storms and others is a bit much. Having lived through those, it's somewhat crazy to make those kinds of comparisons 8 or 9 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The constant comparisons to the 96 storm, PD storms and others is a bit much. Having lived through those, it's somewhat crazy to make those kinds of comparisons 8 or 9 days out. PDII didn't even look like all that much until about 48 hours out. It was just a massive overrunning of moisture into super cold air. I don't remember very much wind although I believe it did qualify as a blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Ohh geeez.. now we gonna talk about the 15th....ahhhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I dont think we will ever see another 96. If I recall PDII, I only got 17" in that one. After the 36" in 96, it was 27" in the 12/26/10 storm. I remember a couple other that were up there also in recent years. Maybe we should talk about the past storms in another thread though, not sure they belong here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 March 01.... 30+ was progged for PHL-NYC. Was going to surpass JAN 1996. I'm still in therapy from this :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 March 01.... 30+ was progged for PHL-NYC. Was going to surpass JAN 1996. Easily. I remember seeing forecasts for 2-3 feet for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 march 2001 was progged bigger than pd 2 for the philly to nyc corridor? At 2 days or more out it was...PDII sort of snuck up on us, it was forecast poorly by the models much like 2/11/94...it was a similar event and the split flow was giving the models problems, the 12Z ETA on Saturday AM or Friday AM (I cannot remember which but either way 24 or 48 hours before) showed a mostly rain event for a large part of the area...was not til the 18Z runs Sat afternoon models really started catching onto it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 At 2 days or more out it was...PDII sort of snuck up on us, it was forecast poorly by the models much like 2/11/94...it was a similar event and the split flow was giving the models problems, the 12Z ETA on Saturday AM or Friday AM (I cannot remember which but either way 24 or 48 hours before) showed a mostly rain event for a large part of the area...was not til the 18Z runs Sat afternoon models really started catching onto it. I don't recall any models showing rain for PDII (or were you referring to 2001?). I remember the gfs suppressing the storm until a day or so before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 starting next weekend I think our best chance for the BIG storms start showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I don't recall any models showing rain for PDII (or were you referring to 2001?). I remember the gfs suppressing the storm until a day or so before I don't recall what the GFS did at all, suppression is very possible since I know guidance was just all over the place but I do know the ETA had one run with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 My uncle got married on February 15,2003. I remember hearing the forecasts that night on the radio.Alot of them were forecastinf 6-12 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I dont think we will ever see another 96. If I recall PDII, I only got 17" in that one. After the 36" in 96, it was 27" in the 12/26/10 storm. I remember a couple other that were up there also in recent years. Maybe we should talk about the past storms in another thread though, not sure they belong here We will get another one. Just might take time. Feb 6 2010.... easily would have match it.... 27" DC area, 30-35" BWI area, then 28-30" in PHL area.... Had it hit NYC-BOS, there we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Weeks 1, 2, 3/4: JMA weeklies Week 2 looks to b the coldest. It agrees with Day 8 - 13 look on the Euro ensembles . The CFSV2 is on board too with this week 2 look . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Once to week 3 , We get our first sign of the pattern ending , the Euro ensembles and the CFSV2 stick the warmth right into the NE for a week, week 4 we may cool, then once in late FEB to the start of March POOF . Pattern totally breaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Weeks 1, 2, 3/4: JMA weeklies Week 2 looks to b the coldest. It agrees with Day 8 - 13 look on the Euro ensembles . The CFSV2 is on board too with this week 2 look . Week 1 looks like a classic East Coast torch with that SE ridge and -PNA. Doesn't bode well for the 2/8 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Week 1 looks like a classic East Coast torch with that SE ridge and -PNA. Doesn't bode well for the 2/8 storm. Nah that's at 5k feet 2 Meter temps are cold . See the Dam over the top ( NEG WPO ) . All of our air is from over the pole . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Nah that's at 5k feet 2 Meter temps are cold . See the Dam over the top ( NEG WPO ) . All of our air is from over the pole . Oops, thanks for pointing that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Once to week 3 , We get our first sign of the pattern ending , the Euro ensembles and the CFSV2 stick the warmth right into the NE for a week, week 4 we may cool, then once in late FEB to the start of March POOF . Pattern totally breaks I don't think too many of us will be upset if an early Spring materializes after this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I don't think too many of us will be upset if an early Spring materializes after this winter. Agree. It's been a good winter and a nice warmup would be nice. Week 3 of the CFSv2 has a positive EPO, NAO and AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I don't think too many of us will be upset if an early Spring materializes after this winter. Yeh once FEB over , Winter might be too . - 2 and 150 perc of snowfall , was a great run . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yeh once FEB over , Winter might be too . - 2 and 150 perc of snowfall , was a great run . When march gets here i want the warm weather to arrive too. February being the last of the cold would be very refreshing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 When march gets here i want the warm weather to arrive too. February being the last of the cold would be very refreshing I would want a March 2009 redux if the latest lackluster modeling for February is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 can you please put into words all the delicious things this map may entail? I would like to see it in writing [/quoteHigh than normal heights across the pac thru Alaska over the pole ensure you're source region is arctic not polar Pacific. 2 different air masses. Arctic air is low level cold air that translates to colder 2 m temps. U can see the pac jet cutting underneath with higher than normal heights over Greenland which promotes blocking. With a deep trough in Europe you should see a deeper trough into the east than modeled 15 days out. As it is its Coast to coast cold . Doesn't mean it's snowy but nothing cuts in that pattern If there's a ridge than the baroclinic zone that sets up looks to me is over the Mason Dixon line. The Map ,that was attached to the above comments were taken down , I understand why , so I will keep these maps to a minimum , What that day 15 map showed was a deep trough in Europe and a nice high connected height field from the Pacific over the poles but a spread out trough that leaned back towards the west coast with more of a flatter look as it headed east . You would have thought by looking at it ,that temps appeared on the normal side . The reason I show you the new day 10 which is now deeper in the northeast , is because when looking at this mornings day 15 500 mb map , you will see a deep trough near Alaska , but don't worry it retrograded there keeping the high heights intact and still delivers arctic air into the CONUS , nothing changed . It also keeps the deep trough in Europe So once again , you will see a deeper trough into the east in day 15 , and should prob show up in 5 days from now . The map below , is the new day 10 - for the period I outlined on the 26th . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The Euro /GEFS/JMA seem to be coming around to the idea of a +EPO for week 2. Normally, this isn't something that you really to see for us. But it looks like the +EPO may try to pump the ridge over toward the Davis Strait which would mean colder temps returning to the Northeast with more troughing. This potential development will be something to watch as we get closer for snow possibilities. http://fox12weather.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/500za_week2_bg_na6.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The Euro /GEFS/JMA seem to be coming around to the idea of a +EPO for week 2. Normally, this isn't something that you really to see for us. But it looks like the +EPO may try to pump the ridge over toward the Davis Strait which would mean colder temps returning to the Northeast with more troughing. This potential development will be something to watch as we get closer for snow possibilities. http://fox12weather.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/500za_week2_bg_na6.png gfs-ens_z500a5d_nhem_3.png Y201401.D3012.png But check out how NEG the WPO gets it will keep the heights intact so our main source region of air is arctic . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 CFS offer a similar look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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