Hailstorm Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 You gotta bring life into these forums. Ive been a mainstay on vwvortex.com as i have a show car and humor and enthusiasm works wonders. And yes i "by accident" started with the again and some people in here think im trying to start mating season in here or something haha. Back to the weekend threat that "im over excited for". John posted that wednesday storm IF modeled correctly would be in 50/50 position which would aid the 2/8 storm, that coupled with higher heights toward greenland and also a favorable PV positions. The models seem to liking that period as well with what the GFS/EURO have been showing. I do expect to see the EURO start working in its bias and holding back energy so i wont jump off a cliff when i see that periodically. Is there a chance it could go poof? Of course, thats why getting these storms that can make a run at the big dogs on the NESIS scale are so hard to get, the checklist for it to happen is much bigger. One thing than opened my eyes today when paul said and i quote "if there is a storm to go all in on its this one" really meant alot being that hes been pretty spot on this winter and is unbiased. I am taking anything away from john though as he is damn good at what he does as well Yeah, Don Sutherland is barking about the period between 2/8-2/15 as well. I hope that the ENSO regions continues to cool so that we extend this below-normal temperature pattern until the middle of March. I also heard that yesterday's GFS run showed stratospheric warming which would contribute to retaining an -AO for a longer period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The only thing that could go wrong with the 8th is that the split flow could merge early to the point that we get a cutter, but with the block in place and the PV over SE Canada, the chances of a cutter is little to none. So I think it's best that we watch February 6th for any good consistency. Study chaos theory a little bit and you'll realize that there are so many things that could still go wrong with this system, that it's not funny. Yes, the probability of a major snowstorm at Day 10 actually verifying is greater than it would be normally, without any model support, but it's still way closer to zero than 100%, given the incomplete and inaccurate set of initial conditions for any model run, combined with the variations introduced by perturbations form those initial conditions, as time goes by. Let's put it this way: there are probably dozens of model runs per winter at 10 days that depict historic (12" or more) snowstorms and we only get one every 4 years, based on Central Park data (36 in 145 years, if I recall correctly). Enjoy the ride, but don't get too confident... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Study chaos theory a little bit and you'll realize that there are so many things that could still go wrong with this system, that it's not funny. Yes, the probability of a major snowstorm at Day 10 actually verifying is greater than it would be normally, without any model support, but it's still way closer to zero than 100%, given the incomplete and inaccurate set of initial conditions for any model run, combined with the variations introduced by perturbations form those initial conditions, as time goes by. Let's put it this way: there are probably dozens of model runs per winter at 10 days that depict historic (12" or more) snowstorms and we only get one every 4 years, based on Central Park data (36 in 145 years, if I recall correctly). Enjoy the ride, but don't get too confident... more even keel posts like these are exactly what the thread needs... exciting options on the table, but which come to fruition is a completely different ball game.. I tend to like the second potential better than the first but its merely speculation by any of us at this point.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Low 50`s for the SB , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The 12z Euro is interesting for Monday. It looks stronger than previous runs. Snow on Philly's doorstep as the game in ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 By hour 96 on the Euro we're all snow. Temperatures plummet during the day on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The 12z Euro is interesting for Monday. It looks stronger than previous runs. Snow on Philly's doorstep as the game in ending. from HM: Monday's wave runs into confluence but I suspect the wave is being dampened too quickly. Deformation zones are placed right now similarly to the 29th storm on GFS. I think this keeps trending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 By hour 96 on the Euro we're all snow. Temperatures plummet during the day on Sunday. Yea i have been watching the signature on the models for this event since last night, this one is sneaky. Merits more of a convo than a storm 10 days away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Weak low pressure exists stage right off the NC coast. 1-2, 2-4 type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 By hour 96 on the Euro we're all snow. Temperatures plummet during the day on Sunday. This wave looked interesting a few days ago, do wonder if we can get a nice minor/moderate event out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Okay, the height filed looks to be suppressing this well to the south overall which is what we want for mid-week. Switching over to the other thread now for the rest of the PBP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 This wave looked interesting a few days ago, do wonder if we can get a nice minor/moderate event out of it. Its a different set up now, this is a secondary along the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Looks like up to 3 to 4 in CNJ Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'm going to start a thread for the 3rd event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Looks like up to 3 to 4 in CNJ Monday yup the same refrain - south and east of the city will do best again - story of the winter -- not complaining just noting.. im just a little too far north for this one I do believe unless we get some additional trends.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 yup the same refrain - south and east of the city will do best again - story of the winter -- not complaining just noting.. im just a little too far north for this one I do believe unless we get some additional trends.. Its ok , we will pay for it Wed , Thats not our storm in CNJ . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Its ok , we will pay for it Wed , Thats not our storm in CNJ . yeah, wont be mine either... one can hope for the weekend one but im realistic, and its 10 days away -- like your analysis in here, your one of the good ones.. please keep it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Next 7 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Next 7 days is this liquid, snow or both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Note how all the snow we got this winter so far was without a dominant -NAO (early Jan had a transient block in a neutral NAO dominated pattern tho), all thanks to the -EPO, the pattern you mentioned sounds unfavorable but it happened in Feb 1994, Feb 2013 was in a -PNA List of "thread in the needle events": Feb 1983 (only snowstorm in a terrible Strong El nino pattern with HP to the north and low right up the coast) Feb 1994: If baroclinic zone was farther north like 2007-08, we would have been screwed Dec 2002: LP closed off faster off the coast than expected, (sounds familiar to now except this is not a Primary to coastal scenario) Feb 2006: Best thread in the needle event: warm winter, transient +PNA helped, March 2009: +NAO, narrow band Dec 2010: Everything could have gone wrong in that ( energy diving around the trough in a highly amplified pattern) Jan 27, 2011: Marginal temps, strong mid level disturbance, quick hit, saw earthlights posts from 3 years ago saying it would be rain lol Feb 2013: This seemed to come out of no where in a unfavorable pattern, a "bowling ball" in the 500mb pattern, La nina favored NE but we still got 6-12" January 2-3, 2014: Very progressive pattern but transient block in Davis Strait helped thread the needle, you can tell it was progressive by how warm the temps were 4 days later, PV too close for comfort but still pulled it off January 21-22, 2014: Even more lucky, was not expecting this until 2 days before when 9z SREFs blew the snow horn, the trough digged just enough to throw back heavy snows to coastal areas, 11.5" NYC, could have easily been a trace The point is that you can always thread the needle no matter how bad the pattern is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Note how all the snow we got this winter so far was without a dominant -NAO (early Jan had a transient block in a neutral NAO dominated pattern tho), all thanks to the -EPO, the pattern you mentioned sounds unfavorable but it happened in Feb 1994, Feb 2013 was in a -PNA January was a good pattern for snow here since the NE based block was able to extend over Greenland in the monthly mean while the EPO ridge pressed far enough into PNA territory to keep the trough locked in the East. December still finished with above average snow all on the EPO without any help form the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Hey guys some years i would be pissing on sparkplugs for a flake. February hopefully will be one big snowgasm, i'll take my chances the trend is our friend.Little neck bay is frozen for about mile from the marshes very cool.see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The system on the 15th has weight also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The system on the 15th has weight also. Remember the PDII references you keep adding. Look at the 18Z GFS @HR 360 on the H5 map and compare to the H5 from PDII. Here's a reference from the PDII event: http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/17-Feb-03-500MillibarMaps.html Now that's a close one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 march 2001 was progged bigger than pd 2 for the philly to nyc corridor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 march 2001 was progged bigger than pd 2 for the philly to nyc corridor? Most forecasts were 20-30"+ from DC to Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Most forecasts were 20-30"+ from DC to Boston Such a disaster I had to drive 5 hours to Killington because I couldn't believe it blew up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 March 01.... 30+ was progged for PHL-NYC. Was going to surpass JAN 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The system on the 15th has weight also. IMO, that's the best shot for a HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 is this liquid, snow or both both I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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