CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I imagine the kicker is weaker this run? It's actually about the same location and strength as the 18Z GFS. The northern stream is just digging a lot more on the NAM than the GFS because it's stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Radar lighting up in Texas @60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 25-30dbz showing up in TX @ 66HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I imagine the kicker is weaker this run? It's actually about the same location and strength as the 18Z GFS. The northern stream is just digging a lot more on the NAM than the GFS because it's stronger. Gotcha. Can't view models right now, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Radar lighting up in Texas @60 You can see the front stalling out on the coastline on that sim-radar forecast. pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Can someone say ICE in Tallahassee... Ouch... The main precipitation & chance still looks best along the Gulf Coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Be very surprised if the NAM does not go boom based on that 66hr panel, southern stream may be just a little late but that is a good thing for folks in the SE. Even at 60hrs with the 500mb heights, vorts aside, short waves looked poised to interact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Man 69 is nice with that digging further west as well. Looks like the baja energy is a little west of the 75 hr 18z image I guess that can only help for them to be able to phase with one another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 75 hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 75hr is no doubt more west with the southern energy and the northern energy sharp as it digs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 78 the northern energy is digging thru NM and TX. I'm assuming we need to have the southern vort slow down just a tad to have this thing go boom or.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Have fun with this, Metalic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Odd that we could potentially be closing down beach towns for a snow storm along the gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 A lot of the Gulf Coast/FL Panhandle and southern GA could be a skating rink with that much ice falling... Snow falls on northern side, but the cut-off will be sharp. That makes life oh so much fun for us (me) on the northern side of that precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Gosh this thing is tantalizing to watch hoping for that nw trend. That I would say is the closest we've got to the two streams phasing just needs to happen a little sooner for people in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Have fun with this, Metalic...NAM_00_081_31.17;-81.82.gif That would be a decent icestorm anywhere let a known s. ga. .5 -.75" strip from Houston along the coast to Brunswick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 You guys are great and I only know 5% of what is being talked about but I am learning. The latest NAM model seems more promising for the coastal nc folks if I am reading them right and understanding what y'all are saying. This is going to be fun to watch the closer it gets and the more info we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Not sure what would happen beyond 84. Trough is positively tilted, so certainly no guarantee the precip would get back further west beyond this,. Coastal carolinas might would do well, not sure about piedmont sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Ok... The NAM has a swath of 5-10 of snow from New Orleans over to Mobile & Pensacola and up through Macon/Columbus/Waynesboro/Orangeburg, SC. It also has almost a FOOT near Dothan & Enterprise, AL. Ice... Not good. 0.50 to 0.75" from Destin, FL up through Albany, GA to Coastal South Carolina. Yeah... Fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 i am pretty sure if this model were to go past 84 we would see a phase..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 At the Bobcats game tonight so I missed the PBP but looking at the NAM I have a hard time believing the moisture doesn't stretch north. If we had .25 make it to us in NC this could be give given the ratios. Good trend tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Ok... The NAM has a swath of 5-10 of snow from New Orleans over to Mobile & Pensacola and up through Macon/Columbus/Waynesboro/Orangeburg, SC. It also has almost a FOOT near Dothan & Enterprise, AL. Ice... Not good. 0.50 to 0.75" from Destin, FL up through Albany, GA to Coastal South Carolina. Yeah... Fun. WOW....This run does look Colder at H85 and 2M for you and I...So, I do think there would be more of snow threat at least for this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 That model run is a dream scenario for my area. I would feel a lot better if the op GFS or ECMWF jumped on board. Consdering the NAM is showing an historic snow event for Mobile, something not seen since the late 1800s, I will temper my excitement for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 WOW....This run does look Colder at H85 and 2M for you and I...So, I do think there would be more of snow threat at least for this run. I'm looking on our weather computers... But... Columbus would get about 1-3", Cusseta would get 3-5" and Americus/Ellaville would get 5-10". LOLOL! Auburn? less than 0.50". Not sure my viewers are going to like that if they live north & west of Columbus. PS: I'm not showing it on air, but I am showing (I did at 7P) this though I'll probably adjust it before the 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I believe this was a very good run of the NAM for many locations. Now if we can just get the GFS and EURO to trend this way. If I lived along the I-95 corridor down to across the coastal plains of GA, AL, SC, NC, etc. I would feel very good about what the models are showing. I still believe the NAM is under doing moisture and surface precipitation in the foothills and piedmont locations. While I do believe the total precipitation will be hard pressed to make it over a quarter of an inch, ratios should/would be very high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsouth Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Ok... The NAM has a swath of 5-10 of snow from New Orleans over to Mobile & Pensacola and up through Macon/Columbus/Waynesboro/Orangeburg, SC. It also has almost a FOOT near Dothan & Enterprise, AL. Ice... Not good. 0.50 to 0.75" from Destin, FL up through Albany, GA to Coastal South Carolina. Yeah... Fun. I don't trust those NAM snow accumulation maps. They also show a couple inches in Tallahassee by 84 hours...but soundings clearly show a rain/freezing rain setup there. Also the precip type map shows ice...so not sure if its accumulating all frozen precip or what. Regardless, the NAM show a massive ice storm for the S AL/S GA and the Florida Panhandle, possibly reaching as far east as Tallahassee. And precip is still streaming into the region at the end of the run. I'm skeptical, given the climatology of Tallahassee Ice Storms (i.e. I don't know of any). We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I like that graphic...I still think a sleet/snow combo for csg to man *IFFF* there is any qpf at all up our way. The southern portions of bama and ga might get slammed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Wow we get over an inch of ice it looks like from the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I don't trust those NAM snow accumulation maps. They also show a couple inches in Tallahassee by 84 hours...but soundings clearly show a rain/freezing rain setup there. Also the precip type map shows ice...so not sure if its accumulating all frozen precip or what. Regardless, the NAM show a massive ice storm for the S AL/S GA and the Florida Panhandle, possibly reaching as far east as Tallahassee. And precip is still streaming into the region at the end of the run. I'm skeptical, given the climatology of Tallahassee Ice Storms (i.e. I don't know of any). We'll see. The soundings for Mobile start off as sleet and then quickly switch to snow with a deep isothermal layer right at freezing. Toward Destin...it starts out as a mix of freezing rain and sleet then switches to snow by the end of the run. Almost too crazy to believe at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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