Atlantic Tropical Action 2014

[CCHurricane]

But where do they go from here!

[AvantHiatus]

One of my favorite storms is a top analog for 96L. Perhaps adjusted eastward/faster somewhat and assuming this intensifies rather quickly.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1899_San_Ciriaco_hurricane

 

 

1899 San Ciriaco hurricane, also known as the 1899 Puerto Rico Hurricane, was the longest-lived Atlantic hurricane on record. The third tropical cyclone and first major hurricane of the season, this storm was first observed southwest of Cape Verde on August 3. It slowly strengthened while heading steadily west-northwestward across the Atlantic Ocean and reached hurricane status by late on August 5. During the following 48 hours, it deepened further, reaching Category 4 on the modern day Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHWS) before crossing the Leeward Islands on August 7. Later that day, the storm peaked winds of 150 mph (240 km/h). The storm weakened slightly before making landfall in Guayama, Puerto Rico with winds of 140 mph (220 km/h) on August 8. Several hours later, it emerged into the southwestern Atlantic as a Category 3 hurricane. The system paralleled the north coast of Dominican Republic and then crossed the Bahamas, striking several islands. Thereafter, it began heading northward on August 14, while centered east of Florida. Early on the following day, the storm re-curved northeastward and appeared to be heading out to sea. However, by August 17, it turned back to the northwest and made landfall near Hatteras, North Carolina early on the following day.

The storm weakened after moving inland and fell to Category 1 intensity by 1200 UTC on August 18. Later that day, the storm re-emerged into the Atlantic. Now heading northeastward, it continued weakening, but maintained Category 1 intensity. By late on August 20, the storm curved eastward over the northwestern Atlantic. It also began losing tropical characteristics and transitioned into an extratropical cyclone at 0000 UTC on August 22, while located about 325 miles (525 km) south of Sable Island. However, after four days, the system regenerated into a tropical storm while located about 695 miles (1,120 km) west-southwest of Flores Island in the Azores on August 26. It moved slowly north-northwestward, until curving to the east on August 29. Between August 26 and September 1, the storm did not differentiate in intensity, but began re-strengthening while turning southeastward on September 2. Early on the following day, the storm again reached hurricane intensity. It curved northeastward and passed through the Azores on September 3, shortly before transitioning into an extratropical cyclone.

 

 

[GaWx]

 As Kory mentioned, we're in MJO phase 1. The Euro ensemble actually blew this because it had predicted phase 2 through now and beyond. So, the GEFS had a rare MJO victory since it had been predicting a move back into phase 1. Fwiw, the Euro has it milling within a modest phase 1 before moving modestly back into phase 2. See 1st attached chart. However, the GEFS is still insisting on a monsterly strong phase 1 developing. It has it about as strong, if not even stronger than 1979's very bullish late August record strong phase 1 (peak of 3.08) (records back to 1975) really getting going starting in about a week from now. (see 2nd attached chart). Just during this record strong late August to early Sep., 1979, MJO phase 1, alone, David, Frederic, and Gloria (1979 version) all formed. That would be quite bullish for genesis prospects and may be why so many GFS runs are so bullish, but is this GEFS very strong phase 1 fictitious and the Euro's much more modest MJO more correct? Opinions?

 

Folks,

 Well, the GEFS has come quite a bit off of yesterday's near record breaking strong near peak season MJO phase 1 though it still has a strong phase 1 prog. I expect the GEFS to come off more in the coming days' runs. See below for the comparison. The Euro ens. is similar to yesterday's run with a much more modest phase 1 going into a modest phase 2.

 

Yesterday's (8/19) GEFS prediction of near record strong MJO phase 1 (~3) for near season peak:

 

Today's (8/20) GEFS prediction of good bit less strong MJO phase 1 (<2.5)(Note the weird red line for 8/15-9..looks erroneous)

[Ground Scouring]

The next 48-72 hours is going to determine a recurve or not. If it can stay weak and south of the big islands of the Caribbean, than I think chances of a westward track are more likely.

Actually, a weaker storm would move faster, as the EMCWF indicates, being steered by the low-level trades. Thus it would be closer to the trough in four days, allowing a recurve, while the stronger, slower GFS and its ensembles suggest that 96L will miss the trough. I think the ECMWF's recurvature is likely, as I see no signs of organization now (bursting-type convection has been ongoing over the past few days) and the wave axis is moving briskly. Easterlies have been anomalously strong in the E Caribbean this season. The GFDL and the HWRF, like the GEFS, are too strong with 96L in the next 72 hours, given the surrounding mid-level dry air near the islands and the brisk forward movement. The chance of a U.S. landfall is close to 0%, certainly much lower than 20%, and I still don't think development will happen, at least not in the next four days. (After this system, the basin looks to be quiet through early September, and then El Niño kicks in. If 96L doesn't strengthen and impact the U.S., then the rest of year looks finished for the U.S., though we could well see another impact in the islands and the Azores/subtropics.)

[Kory]

Actually, a weaker storm would move faster, as the EMCWF indicates, being steered by the low-level trades. Thus it would be closer to the trough in four days, allowing a recurve, while the stronger, slower GFS and its ensembles suggest that 96L will miss the trough. I think the ECMWF's recurvature is likely, as I see no signs of organization now (bursting-type convection has been ongoing over the past few days) and the wave axis is moving briskly. Easterlies have been anomalously strong in the E Caribbean this season. The GFDL and the HWRF, like the GEFS, are too strong with 96L in the next 72 hours, given the surrounding mid-level dry air near the islands and the brisk forward movement. The chance of a U.S. landfall is close to 0%, certainly much lower than 20%, and I still don't think development will happen, at least not in the next four days. (After this system, the basin looks to be quiet through early September, and then El Niño kicks in. If 96L doesn't strengthen and impact the U.S., then the rest of year looks finished for the U.S., though we could well see another impact in the islands and the Azores/subtropics.)

I don't know how you can really give out percentages of landfall over a week in advance.  It is way too early to give an all clear.  

[Stebo]

Actually, a weaker storm would move faster, as the EMCWF indicates, being steered by the low-level trades. Thus it would be closer to the trough in four days, allowing a recurve, while the stronger, slower GFS and its ensembles suggest that 96L will miss the trough. I think the ECMWF's recurvature is likely, as I see no signs of organization now (bursting-type convection has been ongoing over the past few days) and the wave axis is moving briskly. Easterlies have been anomalously strong in the E Caribbean this season. The GFDL and the HWRF, like the GEFS, are too strong with 96L in the next 72 hours, given the surrounding mid-level dry air near the islands and the brisk forward movement. The chance of a U.S. landfall is close to 0%, certainly much lower than 20%, and I still don't think development will happen, at least not in the next four days. (After this system, the basin looks to be quiet through early September, and then El Niño kicks in. If 96L doesn't strengthen and impact the U.S., then the rest of year looks finished for the U.S., though we could well see another impact in the islands and the Azores/subtropics.)

Way to early to say anything like this, it really does a disservice to the thread.

[Srain]

Clearly the WPC/HPC in conjunction with the NHC is not buying this out to sea 'chatter' that some seem to be buying at this time. Could that change? Until an actual closed center of circulation is determined and that data is ingested into the various guidance, anything from Belize to Bermuda is not completely out of the question. 

 

[smog strangler]

Clearly the WPC/HPC in conjunction with the NHC is not buying this out to sea 'chatter' that some seem to be buying at this time. Could that change? Until an actual closed center of circulation is determined and that data is ingested into the various guidance, anything from Belize to Bermuda is not completely out of the question.

08202014 3 to 7 day surface charts.5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif

Fancy way to describe windshield wiper mode in full effect!

Agreed and thx.

[Kory]

The 18z GFS solution doesn't quite make sense to me.  Ridging off the East Coast, but it continues to show 96L turning straight north into it. 

[Amped]

The 18z GFS solution doesn't quite make sense to me.  Ridging off the East Coast, but it continues to show 96L turning straight north into it. 

One ensemble member showed that yesterday straddled the coast perfectly from Florida to NYC, a 1 in a million work of art.  Models are much better with TC tracks once they form and I don't favor any one scenario at this time.  

 

[Kory]

Seems to be getting it's act together quickly.  I'm thinking a LLC may be beginning to form around 12.7N and 53.2W.  Convection has been persistent this afternoon, which is usually DMIN.  

[Jaguars]

Hispaniola seems likely to be a key player.  Seen many a potential formidable storm in the making bust apart at the seems going over those mountains.  If it skirts just north of the island a different ball game entirely of course.  18Z GFS does a nice job on Jax.  Could turn into an interesting weekend.

[GaWx]

Hispaniola seems likely to be a key player.  Seen many a potential formidable storm in the making bust apart at the seems going over those mountains.  If it skirts just north of the island a different ball game entirely of course.  18Z GFS does a nice job on Jax.  Could turn into an interesting weekend.

 

In Savannah, we can count our lucky stars that Hispaniola took a lot out of the monster David in 1979. He was bad enough at the intensity he hit as it was a pretty big mess and not a very short recovery period. It was a direct hit as the eye went just south and west of Savannah.

[Derecho!]

Well, blew that one. It did indeed reform to the N and the 0Z invest motion is 290 degrees. Now ALL the meaningful early cycle tracks and all but 3 of the GFS ensemble members miss Hispaniola to the N.

[wxtrackercody]

Invest 96L has developed nicely today. The low-level circulation still resembles a trough more than it does a closed low, but the process of the two circulations (96L's old one and one in association with the tropical wave that moved in from the east) merging continues. Convection is well-organized and sustained.

 

[Srain]

[hurricaneman]

This could be one of those that weaker means faster and out to sea with the trough but if this strengthens faster which it seems to be then this could move slower and miss the connection with the trough and get pushed more WNW into Florida in the Bahamas so all interest in the East coastal regions and Eastern GOM need to keep an eye on the progress of 96L

[GaWx]

 The 0Z GFS has 96L recurving well off of the east coast, similar to the 12Z Euro.

[EasternUSWX]

 The 0Z GFS has 96L recurving well off of the east coast, similar to the 12Z Euro.

 

All we see anymore is recurves it seems. 

[andyhb]

All we see anymore is recurves it seems. 

 

Yeah because Arthur was definitely a recurving fish.

[Derecho!]

The 0Z GFS has 96L recurving well off of the east coast, similar to the 12Z Euro.

at least in a painfully slow, potentially interesting way. stalled for much of the time.

[bdgwx]

18Z 15km FIM shows it curving north as well, but by 168 hours high pressure is building on the northeast quadrant so that may open the possibility of a Carolina hit.

 

[AvantHiatus]

This is far from set in stone, the major pattern drivers are still in the 130-192 hour range. Ensembles should be interesting.

[hurricaneman]

This is far from set in stone, the major pattern drivers are still in the 130-192 hour range. Ensembles should be interesting.

also these models seem to be underestimating 96L which also means that maybe they're moving this too fast and in turn have the trough catch it when in reality it seems to already have a low and possibly a strengthening low at the moment while most if not all the models are sending just a wave through the islands which may end up being an error

 

also there was no low when the models initiated and until a low is there the models tend to do funky things with it until a firm low is established

[Superstorm93]

Serious decline in convection, but this has organized a bit

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands have changed little in organization during the past
several hours.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a
tropical depression could form while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and
over the eastern Caribbean Sea.  The mountainous terrain of
Hispaniola and eastern Cuba could limit development during the first
part of the weekend, but conditions are expected to be conducive for
development early next week when the system is forecast to move near
or over the Bahamas.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy
rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto
Rico, and the Virgin Islands tonight and Friday, and over Hispaniola
late Friday and Saturday. Interests in those islands should closely
monitor the progress of this disturbance.  An Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Srain]

96L continues to have a broad elongated area of low pressure and some shear and dry air entrainment from the N continues to keep the convection from consolidating. While the track guidance has shifted E, the reliable 00Z European Ensemble Mean suggests that if this disturbance survives land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba, anywhere from the Yucatan Peninsula across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida into the SE United States may feel the effects of the disturbance. Until an actual closed surface low develops, caution is advised on buying into one particular dynamical computer model over another. RECON is scheduled to investigate later today and the data gained by that mission should assist the various computer guidance regarding the development and future track of this tropical disturbance.

 

[Kory]

Didn't organize nearly as much as I had expected overnight.  Looks elongated with no closed low level circulation.  We shall see when recon goes out today.  

[CCHurricane]

And the 12z GFS says...Hurricane? What hurricane?

 

Meanwhile the 12z CMC coming in with a HWRF style track that slams into southern FL, re-emerges in the Gulf and has a secondary hit on the FL panhandle.

[Kory]

The GFS looked interesting.  Has a storm stalled just east of the Bahamas for a few days as a ridge comes in and builds to it's north.  It finally takes off NE toward the end of the run, but a couple degrees to the west and it would've gotten stuck under the ridge.  

[MarkSC]

Although 96L looks ragged on zoomed in satellite, the Atlantic-wide view is actually pretty impressive with good banding developing.