Amped Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 As crappy as Bertha is, theres a good chance of it reaching Cat1. I dont know when the last time the first 2 storms of the season became hurricanes was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 As crappy as Bertha was, theres a good chance of it making Cat1. I dont know when the last time the first 2 storms of the season became hurricanes was. Do systems that only make it to TD status count? Regardless, TD#2 was likely briefly a TS at its peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 Do systems that only make it to TD status count? Regardless, TD#2 was likely briefly a TS at its peak. I dont know, because its just an arbitrary stat. As long as we dont count them any other year either, I think its fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 86kt FL wind and 72kt SFMR wind found in NE quad of Bertha NOAA VDM reported a partial eyewall. AF Dropsonde also reported a surface wind of 83kts in the NE Quad. Probably a gust. But I think Bertha is 70-75kt hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 Only concerning thing from an intensification standpoint is the appearance that the low-level circulation is running away from the convection in the eastern and southern quadrant. Northwesterly shear might not be soon to give way if the system to its west continues to produce deep convection. The most recent runs of the HRRR have been suggesting that Bertha might run away from the current convective plume over the center, so keep an eye on it. Amazing that this is what the Atlantic has become the past two seasons. Just look at this images posted in the WPAC thread. I remain excited for Bertha putting on a nice round of deepening the next 24 hours. It might even over-preform a little up into the 80kt range. 25-35 north has been the only real intensification region. And shes nice and close to the Gulf Stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 Official 11am: Hurricane Bertha winds 80mph. NHC believes its leveled off, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 It's amazing that the globals can't predict convection correctly 12 hours in advance but yet can lock onto a TC track ten days out. Never once has this track ever waivered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 I'm kinda shocked Bertha has rapidly intensified the last 24 hours (was 40 knots yesterday at this time). Somehow the storm managed to develop a very tight inner core. Even though the pressure (998 hPa) is fairly unimpressive, those winds are being enhanced by higher than normal environmental pressure (somewhere around 1016 hPa), as well as the rapid forward motion of Bertha. There are some things working in Bertha's favor that could have foreshadowed this: 1) SSTs are around 29 degrees C, the warmest Bertha will ever experience. 2) The shear vector, northwesterly, is actually advecting deep moisture over Bertha. That's why dry air intrusion has been kept to a minimum the last 24 hours or so. If that shear vector moves to northeast, however, there is more dry air in Bertha's proximity in that direction and that would likely lead to the end of intensification. Note the arc clouds emanating from Bertha in that direction... thats the dry air waiting to be entrained into Bertha if the shear vector changes. With that said, I thought Bertha would struggle to maintain convection near the low-level circulation. I'm quite surprised its fought off that (possibly helped because the system to its west didn't produce major burst of deep convection last night). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 As crappy as Bertha is, theres a good chance of it reaching Cat1. I dont know when the last time the first 2 storms of the season became hurricanes was. 1983 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 One of the worst presentations of a hurricane (albeit minimum) I think I've ever seen in my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 IR loop looks more like an open wave then a cane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 The system over SW Florida looks better on IR then Bertha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 One of the worst presentations of a hurricane (albeit minimum) I think I've ever seen in my life. Bertha's presentation may be more craptacular than the GOMEX's Hurricane Earl of 1998 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 Bertha's presentation may be more craptacular than the GOMEX's Hurricane Earl of 1998 I don't think any will ever beat Earl. A cat 2 Hurricane with an exposed llc lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 I don't think any will ever beat Earl. A cat 2 Hurricane with an exposed llc lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 The system off of Florida is actually modifying the overall flow of Hurricane Bertha this afternoon.Should begin to inject drier air into the circulation as it races to the NE. Definitely was an interesting case of a strong LLC taking advantage of marginally favorable conditions.IMO, The SW Atlantic should be the region with the highest ACE this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 Judging from the burst-like IR pattern, microwave imagery depicting a highly asymmetric structure, and aircraft observations of rain rate, this appears to have been an asymmetric RI case. These asymmetric RI events do occasionally occur (see papers on Irene 1999 and Gabrielle 2001). Often times with sheared TCs, you see a large convective burst on one side of the vortex due to the shear tilting over the vortex and forcing vertical motion on that side. Every once in a while, that convective burst (for reasons unknown) happens to be closer to the TC center inside the RMW. Convection inside the RMW favors rapid intensification, based on theoretical arguments and supported by observations.If the shear doesn't decrease though, the shear eventually wins out and the RI can come to a spectacular end. This may be what is occurring now, as convection has greatly weakened over the past few hours. We'll have to see if a new burst forms once the boundary layer moistens and recovers in the wake of the outflow (seen by the arc clouds racing northwards). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 Bertha's presentation may be more craptacular than the GOMEX's Hurricane Earl of 1998 As the advisory says, the outflow does look pretty good overall, but if anyone other than the NHC told me a dropsonde found a hurricane-strength storm in that trash pile I would not believe them. Based on the presentation and the forecasted shear increase I wonder if Bertha is going to simply disintegrate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 I better get swell from this at ruggles /newport thursday! What you think Long Island surf poster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 Down to 75MPH 000WTNT33 KNHC 042041TCPAT3BULLETINHURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 16NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014500 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2014...BERTHA CONTINUES NORTHWARD......NO THREAT TO LAND...SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...29.4N 73.6WABOUT 560 MI...900 KM WSW OF BERMUDAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WASLOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.6 WEST. BERTHA ISMOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND A GRADUAL TURNTOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVERTHE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA WILL PASS ABOUTMIDWAY BETWEEN THE U.S. EAST COAST AND BERMUDA ON TUESDAY.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...OVER A SMALL AREA NORTHEAST OF THECENTER. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROMTHE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140MILES...220 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERAIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------NONE.NEXT ADVISORY-------------NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 NHC forecasting 50kts of vertical wind shear in about 36 hours. Game Over. Discussion suggesting that it might already be an open wave. Waiting for recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 I did a bit of quick research and not taking into account of the current ENSO state (La Nina/El Nino be they weak, neutral or strong) AMO, PDO NAO, EPO and AO, but strictly based off the Day 11+ Analogs issued July 31st with the top 10 Analogs years that are somewhat correlated with the current upper air pattern regime expected...and this is what those analogs suggest...tropical cyclone wise. There are some notable Hurricanes within those analog years. The analogs just offer clues to past general weather patterns across North America and what happened during the analog years across the Tropical North Atlantic Basin. CPC July 31st Day 11+ Analogs: 07312014 CPC Day 11+ Analogs 814analog_off.gif 1975: 08012014 1975 NALT Hurricanes 1280px-1975_Atlantic_hurricane_season_map.png 1958: 08012014 1958_Atlantic_hurricane_season_map.png 1985: 08012014 1985 1280px-1985_Atlantic_hurricane_season_map.png 2005: 08012014 2005_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png 1951: 08012014 1951_Atlantic_hurricane_season_map.png 2008: 08012014 2008 2008_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png 1983: 08012014 1983 1280px-1983_Atlantic_hurricane_season_map.png 1991: 08012014 1991 1280px-1991_Atlantic_hurricane_season_map.png 1999: 08012014 1999_Atlantic_hurricane_season_map.png 1961: 08012014 1961 1280px-1961_Atlantic_hurricane_season_map.png Interestingly, 1961, 1999, 2005 and 2008 all remain top analogues still, with 2008 actually on there twice this time. I don't think a 500 mb analogue technique has much merit for genesis or TC activity (although it probably does a little bit, e.g. strength of trough/ridge over N Africa and effect on SAL / easterly wave activity), but it can definitely provide some clues for steering flow. That said, all 4 of those seasons had a significant TC for Texas: 1961 (Carla) 1999 (Bret) 2005 (Rita) 2008 (Ike) Let's see what happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 1983 Thanks. Not a very active season, did have Alicia though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 IF the just released Euro weeklies are accurate for mid to late August, there would be no long lasting above normal heat in the SE though there could be in the NE with a little above normal 500 mb ridging centered nearby. The SE would be below that ridging, which would keep it from getting too hot for too long there. Also, with this setup, IF there are any tropical cyclones offshore the SE coast, this/these may not recurve easily off the SE as is the case with Bertha. Looking at precip. anomalies, the weeklies have the tropics pretty dry overall for weeks 2-4 with wetter above that in the subtropics in the general vicinity of 25-30 N over/near the SE US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted August 4, 2014 Share Posted August 4, 2014 I know that I'm just repeating myself but I can't believe, I'm stunned, this was (is?) a hurricane. Makes me wonder how many other random storms which were not investigated were actually hurricanes. At least earlier today we had a pretty healthy outflow but even that doesn't look very good anymore. Also maybe I'm nuts but looking at the Visible, it looks like the LLC is racing northward ahead of the convection. Which doesn't seem to make a lot of sense so maybe there's just an illusion of a vortex there, would appreciate input. Maybe this storm is just trying to look as awful as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Latest advisory maintains Bertha as a hurricane... sort of a continuation bet on the part of the NHC. Looking forward to having the plane in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Disturbance off of Florida looks better than a 65 knot hurricane. These are strange times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 NHC is not required to differentiate between gradient winds and heat exchange winds from the TC. Bertha is not really a 65kt cane by itself, it is embedded in the anomalous WAR (West Atlantic Ridge). Hopefully this warrants some attention in the post-season analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Driest air at 500 mb over the Tropical Atlantic between 10-20 north on record for the month of July. It was also the record driest July for the whole Tropical Atlantic region at 500 mb. This follows the general long term June-September drying trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 5, 2014 Share Posted August 5, 2014 Driest air at 500 mb over the Tropical Atlantic between 10-20 north on record for the month of July. It was also the record driest July for the whole Tropical Atlantic region at 500 mb. This follows the general long term June-September drying trend. DRY.png TAJUL.png JJAS.png Based on those charts it's safe to say this season has overperformed. Pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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