Atlantic Tropical Action 2014

[jaxjagman]

The control is showing some systems in the GOM in the long range,if they get sheared out or is real is another thing but at least we see something to look at

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The tropical wave that just moved off Africa has organized quickly this evening. We'll see if that trend holds. In the absence of a CCKW or the MJO, I have doubts about this developing, but the GFS tracks this as a discernible feature across the tropical Atlantic, through the Caribbean, into the Bay of Campeche (where it finally organizes into a tropical storm), and ashore Mexico over the next two weeks.

 

[Superstorm93]

The tropical wave that just moved off Africa has organized quickly this evening. We'll see if that trend holds. In the absence of a CCKW or the MJO, I have doubts about this developing, but the GFS tracks this as a discernible feature across the tropical Atlantic, through the Caribbean, into the Bay of Campeche (where it finally organizes into a tropical storm), and ashore Mexico over the next two weeks.

 

 

 

 

Interesting. 

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFSTROPATL_0z/gfsloop.html

 

The GFS keeps this as a strong tropical wave that really could develop at any time on its way to the Caribbean. Wave actually looks decent with a sharp inverted-v look to it as well as plentiful convection. 

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located just offshore of the coast of west Africa

is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur over

the next several days while it moves to the west at 15 to 20 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$

Forecaster Blake

 

 

[GaWx]

The tropical wave that just moved off Africa has organized quickly this evening. We'll see if that trend holds. In the absence of a CCKW or the MJO, I have doubts about this developing, but the GFS tracks this as a discernible feature across the tropical Atlantic, through the Caribbean, into the Bay of Campeche (where it finally organizes into a tropical storm), and ashore Mexico over the next two weeks.

 

 

 Wow, this wave, aka pouch 013L, is surprisingly looking quite impressive. The 0Z Euro (just coming out), just like the 12Z Euro, does less with it (virtually no organization) through hour 156 vs. the 0Z GFS (no surprise). Regarding the MJO, it is now in phase 2 and forecasted to stay there for at least another week to ten days. This is actually not an unfavorable phase per 1995-2012 August stats as I mentioned earlier. These phase 2 stats by themselves (i.e., without taking into account the current and forecasted atmospheric setup) loosely suggest ~50% chance of it becoming a TD within the MDR over the next week or so fwiw.

[Srain]

There are at least two easterly waves that are worth monitoring, one that is offshore of Africa and another nearing Western Africa that may combine and track fairly far S along the ITCZ along or just S of 10N. The ensembles are suggesting that as the waves passed 40 and near 50W, the chances of TC genesis could possibly increase. Check back tomorrow and see if the convection is still active as these waves move W around 20 MPH. There is still a good bit of dust across the MDR and convection would need to remain attached to the ITCZ to survive the trek across the Atlantic in the short term. 94L has been designated for this disturbance.

[Kory]

Subtropical ridge looks to hold a bit strong with this wave than with Bertha.  Practically a W to WNW track from it. 

 

[Superstorm93]

[Ground Scouring]

There's little support for development among the GFS ensembles, and the ECMWF still doesn't show anything (other than a wave axis with weak convection), so I think that this system's prospects are well overdone. UL conditions will be favorable for the next four days, but then become less favorable due to a TUTT near the Lesser Antilles. Until then, the system will struggle with dry air, and then shear will be the final nail in the coffin. The system could develop in the BOC down the line, but not if it doesn't have a concentrated lobe of low-level vorticity.

[Srain]

Convection associated with 94L is confined well to the S (below 10N along the monsoonal trough/ITCZ) of the surface analysis of the low center. Dust continues to be an issue N of the disturbance, but further W and closer to the Windward Islands that becomes less of an issue. Yet another easterly wave is nearing the Atlantic from Western Africa and should drop SW as it continues westward today. MIMIC does show a rather robust precipitable water envelope associated with 94L. The only global guidance indicating any potential of TC genesis is the UKMET and that occurs later in the period as 94L enters the Caribbean Saturday night into Sunday. The global guidance does suggest the Bermuda Ridge may build back W and allow this disturbance to continue tracking W across the Caribbean Sea into mid next week.

 

 

  

[Kory]

The Euro is now picking up on this disturbance, bringing it generally WNW toward the Islands in the Caribbean and continuing NW into the Eastern Gulf.  Now, it doesn't develop it significantly, but it is NOW picking up on the disturbance.  It looks like Easterly trades will subside as it heads toward the Caribbean the next few days, so we may see a LLC develop.  Shear looks like it'll kick up after 5+ days in the Caribbean.  That may be the only caveat to development.  I do believe this will be a Caribbean cruiser. 

 

Here's the Euro, which has performed excellently so far.  

 

[Ground Scouring]

The 12Z ECMWF shows an even shallower surface reflection than on the 00Z run, but suggests that conditions near the islands by day five will be more favorable as the TUTT shears out. However, the low-level trades strengthen in the same time frame, which could really hurt organization even as dry air gradually subsides. At any rate, if a vorticity lobe were intact by the time the system reaches the Caribbean, then things could become interesting, as the ECMWF shows a favorable upper-air environment developing in a week over the W Caribbean/eastern Gulf. As of now, I'm still sticking to my original idea that this system does nothing, as the GFS ensembles have trended weaker over time in agreement with the ECMWF.

 

On a funny note, I've been seeing more convection with the TUTTs than with the waves this season.

[tmagan]

May be interesting to see if the Central Pacific can end up with more named storms than the Atlantic.

[thewxmann]

May be interesting to see if the Central Pacific can end up with more named storms than the Atlantic.

 

You mean storms passing through (and not necessarily forming in) the CPAC right? That would be awesome, and is actually a distinct possibility with the Euro and GFS pushing for more EPAC->CPAC storms this week.

[bluewave]

It will be interesting to see how much longer we'll go before our next major hurricane

in the Atlantic. The satellite era record is 2 years between major hurricanes.

 

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E11.html

 

Sandy.......October 2012.........?

Emily........September 1993......Felix........ August 1995

Kate.........November 1985.......Emily .......September 1987

Edith........September 1971......Ellen........ September 1973

Beulah.....September 1967.......Camille .......August 1969

[icebreaker5221]

It will be interesting to see how much longer we'll go before our next major hurricane

in the Atlantic. The satellite era record is 2 years between major hurricanes.

 

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E11.html

 

Sandy.......October 2012.........?

Emily........September 1993......Felix........ August 1995

Kate.........November 1985.......Emily .......September 1987

Edith........September 1971......Ellen........ September 1973

Beulah.....September 1967.......Camille .......August 1969

 

And Sandy was only a major for 3h 35m.  Before Sandy, Michael (also 2012) attained MH status for only 6 h before weakening back to cat 2.

[Srain]

The tropical Atlantic remains quiet this morning, but there are some indications as we head into later next week conditions may improve a bit as the dust and subsidence that has plagued the MDR lessens and instability become a bit more favorable for TC development. Easterly waves continue to march across Africa and that should continue into next week. The longer range guidance has been suggesting a more favorable pattern across the MDR and possibly extending to W of 50 into the Caribbean as near the end of August. We will see

[Superstorm93]

GFS has been showing a huge TPW surge over the next 5-7 days as more and more easterly waves exit Africa. The GFS is alone in its idea that one of these waves will finally have enough moisture/favorable conditions to develop into a tropical cyclone in the Central Atlantic down the road (By D7 or so) 

 

Not expecting anything substantial since the past few GFS CV storms have been bogus, but a barrage of strong AEW's seems plausible. 

 

[hurricaneman]

the GFS has been bullish with pouch 018L but the NAVGEM has come aboard but heres the thing is if the Euro comes aboard do you think this may get a 5 day lemon later today or tomorrow

[GaWx]

While the Euro ens. mean is holding pretty steady with its mainly modest MJO phase 2 for the forseeable future (which is statistically associated with slightly higher than normal genesis possibilities), the GFS ens. mean has now gone bonkers with a VERY strong phase 1 peak prediction of ~2.70 on 8/25 (would be 2nd strongest phase 1 on record during late August/early Sep. and highly favorable for tropical genesis)! Previously, it was also going for pretty moderate phase 2. The GFS has a history of being pretty inaccurate with its MJO predictions and not nearly as accurate as the Euro ens. That may be one reason the 12Z GFs op. had the sig. trop. genesis it had. I'd definitely take the GFS with a grain of salt because of this while it has this crazy MJO prediction without the Euro support. Note that the 18Z run backed way off regarding tropical genesis.

[bluewave]

While we are seeing an active West African Monsoon to start August, there is plenty

of dry and stable air over the MDR like we saw last August. It almost looks like the 

GFS is keying in on the strength of the WAM and the Euro the dry air. So the end

result could be another system that struggles with dry air if it is able to form.

 

 

 

[Srain]

The easterly wave train across Africa continues this morning and one in particular (nearing Chad) has a robust circulation associated with the storm complex. I know some folks follow the Montgomery Research Group/Naval Postgraduate School and their daily updates. The convective feature across Central Africa appears to be the disturbance that the medium range guidance is suggesting development next week. It does appear that each easterly wave that exits Africa is assisting in abating the dust (SAL) that has plagued the MDR and that should continue into next week.

 

It does appear that there may be an increased opportunity for potential TC genesis just beyond next Wednesday as the current wave SW of the Cape Verde Islands as well as the wave about to exit the West Coast of Africa combine with the further east wave near Chad. My hunch is that if we see TC genesis, it would occur W of 40 to 45 longitude where conditions may be much more conducive for genesis around Wednesday of next week.

 

[wxmx]

On the bright side for hurricane enthusiasts, is that the virginal waters of the NW Caribbean, SW Atlantic and the whole GoM have been mostly untouched by crap (monsoonal gyres, etc), that waste names and heat. Shear has been low in those areas for most of the season and is forecasted to remain so. We have lacked the healthy seeds (usually TWs or surface troughs). So, when there's something in the area, there'll probably be good ingredients to work with. TCHP and SSTs are near record levels.

[wxmx]

That's a pretty healthy low embedded in the TW nearing 10N 30W. Low level turning is evident in sat imagery and confirmed by ASCAT. There's another one on it's heels, just splashing near the African coast.

[Superstorm93]

While the Euro ens. mean is holding pretty steady with its mainly modest MJO phase 2 for the forseeable future (which is statistically associated with slightly higher than normal genesis possibilities), the GFS ens. mean has now gone bonkers with a VERY strong phase 1 peak prediction of ~2.70 on 8/25 (would be 2nd strongest phase 1 on record during late August/early Sep. and highly favorable for tropical genesis)! Previously, it was also going for pretty moderate phase 2. The GFS has a history of being pretty inaccurate with its MJO predictions and not nearly as accurate as the Euro ens. That may be one reason the 12Z GFs op. had the sig. trop. genesis it had. I'd definitely take the GFS with a grain of salt because of this while it has this crazy MJO prediction without the Euro support. Note that the 18Z run backed way off regarding tropical genesis.

 

The 200mb VPA on the 12z GFS is actually quite ludicrous. No wonder it was so gung-ho about EATL development. 

 

[Kory]

95L was tagged this evening.  Looks quite good if you ask me, but I'm not too sure of it's future.  SAL continues to dominate the East Atlantic and it has been the demise of several disturbances before.  Models want to keep this moving W to WNW underneath a strong Subtropical ridge.

 

[Superstorm93]

Very impressive ASCAT pass. 

 

[tmagan]

Special tropical weather outlook just issued for that wave.

[Superstorm93]

 

 

 

 

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
935 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to discuss the system over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic.

Updated: Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an
area of low pressure located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Cape Verde Islands continues to show signs of
organization. Satellite data indicate that the low is producing
winds of around 35 mph and that the surface circulation has become
better defined during the past few hours. Some additional
development is possible, and a tropical depression could form in the
next 12 to 24 hours while this system moves westward to west-
northwestward at around 5 mph. After that time, environmental
conditions are expected to become less conducive for development or
strengthening. Interests in the Cape Verde Islands should monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 day...medium...50 percent.

 

[Sunny and Warm]

Special tropical weather outlook just issued for that wave.

... and we're off

 

At 0600 UTC, 16 August 2014, LOW INVEST (AL95) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 15.1°N and 19.8°W. The current intensity was 30 kt and the center was moving at 6 kt at a bearing of 300 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb.

 

[Kory]

 Looks like some easterly shear is pushing the convection off the LLC.  Seems like this is the norm of 2014.