Zelocita Weather Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Gfs/euro/ serfs now bring 1-2" into the region, with a little more amped looked could it be more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Did the 12z NAM come out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Nam north at 12z 54 hours precip through Monmouth county to just about the s shore of Long Island At 6z its 60 hr had the precip line down near Deleware and 100 miles south of Long Island At 60 hours the precip line is accross Long Island down through Monmouth county towards Trenton At 6z its 66 hour the precip line ran from cape cod to Ac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Looks like extremely light snow or snow showers to my eyes, nothing thread worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Looks like extremely light snow or snow showers to my eyes, nothing thread worthy. For coastal sections this should b watched. The GFS looks better. After yesterday in New England , no reason not to keep an eye out and see if this can Put down a few inches on the jersey shore onto Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 For coastal sections this should b watched. The GFS looks better. After yesterday in New England , no reason not to keep an eye out and see if this can Put down a few inches on the jersey shore onto Long Island and its still far enough away to trend 50 - 100 miles and include most of the metro http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2014011912/namconus_reflectivity_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 The Euro ensemble mean would likely bring around an inch to everyone here and this could trend more. Looks like extremely light snow or snow showers to my eyes, nothing thread worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 It's got potential for sure, I could see 2-4" if this keeps trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 As I mentioned a few days ago. This is how we will snow in this pattern. Threats start reappearing and trending better in the 2-3 day timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Looks like extremely light snow or snow showers to my eyes, nothing thread worthy. Same old Ralph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 This is the type of system that could "blow up" and provide parts of Long Island, particularly Suffolk County, several inches of snow. Afterward southeastern New England, including Nantucket and Cape Cod could pick up at least a moderate to possibly localized significant snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 More digging with the vort on the 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Hr 51 light snow into area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Hr 54 light snow continues. Preciep back to PA. Low closer to coast. 1004 east of Norfolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Hr 57 steady snow brushing the coast Hr 60 steady snow to NYC doorstep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Hr 63 starting to pull away. Steady snow all of Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 .10+ for city-west. Close to .25 for Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Is jersey shore .25 as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Is jersey shore .25 as well? Close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 And this is why patience is required in a pattern like this. If ur Gona keep crashing SW s into the coastal plain you will eventually get enough bending when the trough wobbles west u can get deepening close enough to see a trend like this 10 to .25. Not bad for 48 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 The Tuesday storm is getting really interesting. The low keeps on getting stronger and closer to the coast with every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Is jersey shore .25 as well? look at the model for yourself. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVNEAST_12z/avneastloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 And this is why patience is required in a pattern like this. If ur Gona keep crashing SW s into the coastal plain you will eventually get enough bending when the trough wobbles west u can get deepening close enough to see a trend like this 10 to .25. Not bad for 48 hours out Wes (usedtobe) in the mid Atlantic thread said he is expecting 20-1 ratios with this clipper! So we could easily see 1-4 inches out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 The Tuesday storm is getting really interesting. The low keeps on getting stronger and closer to the coast with every run. not true on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 The difference between this system and the previous few clippers is this one has room to develop and there is no other low it is playing off of - and the NAO being slightly negative is slowing things down - so the trends are our friends in this situation - also 0.25 total qpf at 20:1 ratios or greater - well you do the calculations http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014011912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 If we had blocking in place, then the storm would have likely blown up closer to the coast but instead I think we could settle for 1-3/2-4" amounts with maybe more out over LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I'd toss this for now til we see the ensembles, GGEM, Euro, the normally way west NAM at this range is further east than the GFS, although the GFS has not had too many hiccups this year inside 4 days I'd be cautious still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Gfs has my attention now. ..will monitor for further improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I'd toss this for now til we see the ensembles, GGEM, Euro, the normally way west NAM at this range is further east than the GFS, although the GFS has not had too many hiccups this year inside 4 days I'd be cautious still. None of the models have done too well with qpf lately so I'd be very cautious at assuming .15" is going to give 3" of snow. It could easily be half that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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