Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 Yep but the euro is starting to show the separation we need. It will be interesting to see what its ensembles do today. I'm encouraged by the GFS run and the euro. I wonder whether DT will start crowing about southern VA? It's ironic in a way of being careful what you wish for. I was all bummed about monday going north. But if it didn't we wouldn't be having this conversation. heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I'd be happy for GA, SC, NC to cash in - so long as it doesn't mean we don't! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 yup I'm in. Until I'm out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 LOL, With you and I in the dry slot? Bingo! That Sounds about right. I just want to see precip come up from the south so I don't get jealous of the North and West folks reporting 4" when I haven't even see a flake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 It's ironic in a way of being careful what you wish for. I was all bummed about monday going north. But if it didn't we wouldn't be having this conversation. heh. I don't think it would come north enough to screw Matt and I cause at least there will be no ptype issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I just want enough to get me to 20" on the year. C'mon man! Move it north and west. I want to increase my entire winter total of 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Move the deep purples on an axis from Winchester to Westminster to Philadelphia airport and you have a believable solution I was about to type that when you posted this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Yep but the euro is starting to show the separation we need. It will be interesting to see what its ensembles do today. I'm encouraged by the GFS run and the euro. I wonder whether DT will start crowing about southern VA? I can't remember, when are the ensembles out...like 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 I don't think it would come north enough to screw Matt and I cause at least there will be no ptype issues. I think dryslot / ptype / and too far north issues are the least of our worries. Not impossible but highly improbable. If this thing comes up the n md jackpot would be because of terrain influence. We would get hit pretty flush too. Let's make this happen. Get optimistic Wes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Good news it's only Thursday so trend could be your friend...bad news it's the Euro which has not been stellar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The only way this storm could keep the inevitable N trend from hitting the same places is to have the precip start off down near Jacksonville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Good news it's only Thursday so trend could be your friend...bad news it's the Euro which has not been stellar. Where are you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 I can't remember, when are the ensembles out...like 3? Start at 3 and ooze ever so slowly. Some members showed this last night. I don't get the 12z individual stuff until like 5:45 or so. I wish I could fast forward. The means will be telling for sure though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Where are you located? Was about to post the same thing. Dude is probably in Alabama and just messing with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Snowing wed. morning with temps in the single digits would be pretty incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I can't remember, when are the ensembles out...like 3? 3:15 if i am correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 with our temps, we could get 3" from the QPF of a glass of water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 Another event d9-10. Looks like simple tn valley overrunning. Snowing at metlife stadium @ 1am sunday. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Yep but the euro is starting to show the separation we need. It will be interesting to see what its ensembles do today. I'm encouraged by the GFS run and the euro. I wonder whether DT will start crowing about southern VA? DT is thinking its a possible, but unlikley situation without the trough deepening. He says it is not sharp enough and can't come up unless it sharpens. So he's not barking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Right now it seems like every 3rd clipper really turn out well for us. That looks to continue into early February. When I went -3 to -5 for Janauary and referenced some historic cold this is what I had in mind. Did not forsee the near 60 interruptions and that's a shame but it's the pattern. Still turning out to be a very good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Where are you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Another event d9-10. Looks like simple tn valley overrunning. Snowing at metlife stadium @ 1am sunday. lol The GFS op had a similar look. It seems like there will be a couple of decent chances within the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 HM do you think this is a storm that phases up big time and comes up the coast? As others have noted, MR-LR modeling has been quite variable with individual storm threats. But longer-term means, climo and general patterns have been stellar in the numerical guidance. Anyway, notice the modeling doesn't quite partially phase these waves as the system leaves the East. The GFS was actually a lot closer in doing it than the ECMWF. We'll see how this goes but I like the potential a lot for the following reasons: 1. All 3 streams are present and become 1 upper-level jet (plot 200mb winds e.g.) up the East Coast. 2. This wave drops straight down from polar lats behind a departing PV that was just anomalously south. 3. Brief "-NAO west" blip negative at Day 3-5 will begin to rise thereafter as PV races back north. 4. Some Pacific flow begins undercutting PNA in about 5 days. 5. Enhanced oceanic baroclinicity from recent/incoming Arctic Air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 As others have noted, MR-LR modeling has been quite variable with individual storm threats. But longer-term means, climo and general patterns have been stellar in the numerical guidance. Anyway, notice the modeling doesn't quite partially phase these waves as the system leaves the East. The GFS was actually a lot closer in doing it than the ECMWF. We'll see how this goes but I like the potential a lot for the following reasons: 1. All 3 streams are present and become 1 upper-level jet (plot 200mb winds e.g.) up the East Coast. 2. This wave drops straight down from polar lats behind a departing PV that was just anomalously south. 3. Brief "-NAO west" blip negative at Day 3-5 will begin to rise thereafter as PV races back north. 4. Some Pacific flow begins undercutting PNA in about 5 days. 5. Enhanced oceanic baroclinicity from recent/incoming Arctic Air. This fact gives more credence since the GFS has been out performing EURO recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 Euro op and ensembles are really trending towards a -ao/nao combo down the line. Last nights ensemble run and today's op really show it. Matt and others were taking about our best chance for real and sustained blocking to happen in Feb. Gfs/gefs have glimmers but the euro is really trying to get it done. We've managed a decent winter with a terrible Atlantic. Ao went negative in 2 occurrences this month and it snowed both times. Gefs shows another valley next week. If we pull off real blocking in Feb and capitalize, this winter may just about make up for the last 2 debacles. Or at least seriously dull the memories of pain and suffering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 Thanks for the insight, HM. Really appreciate the extra layer of things to watch. All we can do is will it to happen. One op run at 5-6 day leads is only a cookie crumb of hope. But it's still hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Thanks for the insight, HM. Really appreciate the extra layer of things to watch. All we can do is will it to happen. One op run at 5-6 day leads is only a cookie crumb of hope. But it's still hope. Yeah, all we can do is watch and see if these waves interact more or if 1 of them can get enough separation to amplify on its own. Right now, the EPS/OP have 4 distinct waves in all 3 streams not partially phasing (this is why the low goes out to sea but still manages to scrape DC). Small adjustments in the PV configuration and suddenly it's a new scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 When you start talking three stream phasing my heart skips a beat. thanks! Yeah, all we can do is watch and see if these waves interact more or if 1 of them can get enough separation to amplify on its own. Right now, the EPS/OP have 4 distinct waves in all 3 streams not partially phasing (this is why the low goes out to sea but still manages to scrape DC). Small adjustments in the PV configuration and suddenly it's a new scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 When you start talking three stream phasing my heart skips a beat. thanks! Ha lol. Look, I haven't been confident in a lot of things this year and to be honest, my LR goggles for storm threats have been foggier than last year (LR-wise, I wasn't thrilled with 1/21). The blocking is there but not the classic North Atlantic retrograding with 50-50 underneath. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Anyone get a look at the Euro Ensembles yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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