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Winter 2014-2015 Thread


Ji

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Long lead stuff has more unexpecteds than expecteds.

No, I don't think 94-95 is a likely outcome or a good tool for this winter. But is it impossible?

Then there is the 06-07 head scratcher....and 12-13 having a strong -ao in Dec but it was warm and terrible.

After closely tracking the last 8 winters, I'll only be sold on a big season once it's already happening. I'm feeling good for having opportunity this winter but I never forget where I live.

 

I am always worried about the worst case and I'm not worried about 94-95...it ain't happening....

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half this subforum is expecting a 2009-2010 and the other half is banking on a 2011-2012.

I'm expecting some sort of blend of 03-04, 04-05, 06-07, and 79-80. But one or 2 decent events could tip the scales towards some of the bigger years. I'd be pretty surprised if we fail miserably

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The 89 inches in 2018-2019 wasn't good enough? I know the last few storms were slop and ice, but it was a decent winter.

 

Yeah, but I-81, and Stephens City in particular, missed out.  I only got 3", which quickly vaporized under the intense Jan. sun.  Winters just have not been the same here since the ice-caps melted during that historic ONDJFM torch of 2014-15.

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Yeah, but I-81, and Stephens City in particular, missed out.  I only got 3", which quickly vaporized under the intense Jan. sun.  Winters just have not been the same here since the ice-caps melted during that historic ONDJFM torch of 2014-15.

Man, that torch really killed me. I thought we were done for good with great winters, then we had like 10 or 11 in a row. I think some major government functions relocated because of it?

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well, the snow cover site is still off line, but we do have the sea ice site

so we got that going for us   

 

 

I'm not sure how much difference it makes as far as extent. It can't be a bad thing. The most notable thing I can see is how well the ATL side is looking. You have to go all the way back to 2008 to find a comparable year. 

 

arctic.seaice.color.000.png

 

 

It's really a massive improvement from where we were the last 4-5 years or so. Have no idea if this is a clue to patterns this winter but in the big picture it's a good sign.

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I'm not sure how much difference it makes as far as extent. It can't be a bad thing. The most notable thing I can see is how well the ATL side is looking. You have to go all the way back to 2008 to find a comparable year. 

 

arctic.seaice.color.000.png

 

 

It's really a massive improvement from where we were the last 4-5 years or so. Have no idea if this is a clue to patterns this winter but in the big picture it's a good sign.

Wouldn't big ice cover in the north atlantic promote a +NAO? 

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Wouldn't big ice cover in the north atlantic promote a +NAO? 

I don't see why it would.  The arctic ocean is always frozen and therefore isn't a link to the AO.  The NAO region is also huge and covers Greenland (always ice covered) and most of northeast Canada which is pretty much always snow/ice covered in winter. 

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So I take it the 76/77 analog is looking more and more unattainable?

 

I don't think it is a particularly good analog...add to the fact it is such an outlier in terms of result, it is not very useful for a broad brush forecast...It was pretty much already behaving like a moderate nino at this point....

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I don't think it is a particularly good analog...add to the fact it is such an outlier in terms of result, it is not very useful for a broad brush forecast...It was pretty much already behaving like a moderate nino at this point....

11 inches of snow though. Not that exciting...

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