Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Long lead stuff has more unexpecteds than expecteds. No, I don't think 94-95 is a likely outcome or a good tool for this winter. But is it impossible? Then there is the 06-07 head scratcher....and 12-13 having a strong -ao in Dec but it was warm and terrible. After closely tracking the last 8 winters, I'll only be sold on a big season once it's already happening. I'm feeling good for having opportunity this winter but I never forget where I live. I am always worried about the worst case and I'm not worried about 94-95...it ain't happening.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I am always worried about the worst case and I'm not worried about 94-95...it ain't happening.... It's never crossed my mind until Mitch posted cpc d11+ analogs. Just joking around with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 half this subforum is expecting a 2009-2010 and the other half is banking on a 2011-2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 half this subforum is expecting a 2009-2010 and the other half is banking on a 2011-2012. I'm expecting some sort of blend of 03-04, 04-05, 06-07, and 79-80. But one or 2 decent events could tip the scales towards some of the bigger years. I'd be pretty surprised if we fail miserably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 half this subforum is expecting a 2009-2010 and the other half is banking on a 2011-2012. And the other half is clueless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 half this subforum is expecting a 2009-2010 and the other half is banking on a 2011-2012. I have one foot in each camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 And the other half is clueless The percentage might be slightly higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 half this subforum is expecting a 2009-2010 and the other half is banking on a 2011-2012. I look for a blend of 2018-2019 and 2027-2028. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I look for a blend of 2018-2019 and 2027-2028. Yikes.... both of those winters sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Yikes.... both of those winters sucked. The 89 inches in 2018-2019 wasn't good enough? I know the last few storms were slop and ice, but it was a decent winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The 89 inches in 2018-2019 wasn't good enough? I know the last few storms were slop and ice, but it was a decent winter. Yeah, but I-81, and Stephens City in particular, missed out. I only got 3", which quickly vaporized under the intense Jan. sun. Winters just have not been the same here since the ice-caps melted during that historic ONDJFM torch of 2014-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Yeah, but I-81, and Stephens City in particular, missed out. I only got 3", which quickly vaporized under the intense Jan. sun. Winters just have not been the same here since the ice-caps melted during that historic ONDJFM torch of 2014-15. Man, that torch really killed me. I thought we were done for good with great winters, then we had like 10 or 11 in a row. I think some major government functions relocated because of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 well, the snow cover site is still off line, but we do have the sea ice site so we got that going for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 So I take it the 76/77 analog is looking more and more unattainable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 well, the snow cover site is still off line, but we do have the sea ice site so we got that going for us I'm not sure how much difference it makes as far as extent. It can't be a bad thing. The most notable thing I can see is how well the ATL side is looking. You have to go all the way back to 2008 to find a comparable year. It's really a massive improvement from where we were the last 4-5 years or so. Have no idea if this is a clue to patterns this winter but in the big picture it's a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I have one foot in each camp. mitchnick=2009-2010 zwyts=2011-2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 mitchnick=2009-2010 zwyts=2011-2012 I think both of us would take the average of the 2 in a heart beat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I think both of us would take the average of the 2 in a heart beat How do we average the two? 31 and 2' of snow one day, 70 degrees the next? Not sure I want that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I'm not sure how much difference it makes as far as extent. It can't be a bad thing. The most notable thing I can see is how well the ATL side is looking. You have to go all the way back to 2008 to find a comparable year. It's really a massive improvement from where we were the last 4-5 years or so. Have no idea if this is a clue to patterns this winter but in the big picture it's a good sign. Wouldn't big ice cover in the north atlantic promote a +NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 How do we average the two? 31 and 2' of snow one day, 70 degrees the next? Not sure I want that... snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Wouldn't big ice cover in the north atlantic promote a +NAO? I don't see why it would. The arctic ocean is always frozen and therefore isn't a link to the AO. The NAO region is also huge and covers Greenland (always ice covered) and most of northeast Canada which is pretty much always snow/ice covered in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 mitchnick=2009-2010 zwyts=2011-2012 I've never remotely suggested that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 JB just released his public winter forecast: http://www.weatherbell.com/public-winter-14-15-forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 JB just released his public winter forecast: http://www.weatherbell.com/public-winter-14-15-forecast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 So I take it the 76/77 analog is looking more and more unattainable? I don't think it is a particularly good analog...add to the fact it is such an outlier in terms of result, it is not very useful for a broad brush forecast...It was pretty much already behaving like a moderate nino at this point.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 I don't think it is a particularly good analog...add to the fact it is such an outlier in terms of result, it is not very useful for a broad brush forecast...It was pretty much already behaving like a moderate nino at this point.... 11 inches of snow though. Not that exciting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 JB just released his public winter forecast: http://www.weatherbell.com/public-winter-14-15-forecast Seems like a typical Bastardi forecast. Like most long-range forecasters he'll find some way to give himself no less than a B+ no matter what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 Seems like a typical Bastardi forecast. Like most long-range forecasters he'll find some way to give himself no less than a B+ no matter what happens. Does anyone know where his old forecasts are? I wonder what he called for in October 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 The only side benefit to a torch would be for JB's forecast to go up in flames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted October 28, 2014 Share Posted October 28, 2014 always entertaining when the colors on the map don't match any of the ones in the legend, that's very DT-like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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