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Potential severe storms for Sat, Jan 11


Brick Tamland

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About a mile west of GSP. Holy wind Batman! About 50mph gusts with incredible rain. I've never seen a bow echo like that on radar!

 

That bow has been quite impressive looking for a while and it has to be moving 2 or 3 times faster even compared to here.  It's been here in fact for a good 30 minutes where as earlier to the west it was not staying in one place for probably 5 or 6 minutes.  But to show you the difference between here and there right now....there has been ZERO wind here with the line..that's right...virtually dead calm. Pretty amazing difference between here and there.

 

 

What's strange (besides absolutely no wind)  is the line weakened for a while then re intensified right before getting here. That really never happens. Also of note is the lightning and thunder..been having a decent amount of lightning  where as when the line was stronger to the west there was hardly any lightning at all.  Channel 2 said there was only 1 strike in the past 15 minutes got the entire line when it was still back from gainesville at atlanta and south.

 

So in terms of lightning and rain, it intensified, while the wind part of it completely went away where I'm at.

Warnings all over the Upstate this morning. Serious wind and rain reported to our West. Battening down the hatches here under the Peach.

BTW...that wedge is stout! It's in the 40's here, 50's to the West and 60's to the East. Wow!

The temp here jumped from 54 to 66 in an hour or so.

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Quite a lot of wind damage reports per local news. Some people trapped in a mobile home in cherokee county. Actually had lot of lightning earlier this morning..i'm guessing 3 or 4am? Caught me by surprise given the wedge to be honest. Picked up 0.65 with that.

 

So It actually rained a pretty good bit last night in many areas so these storms are also hitting on saturated ground. Will be interesting to see how much damage ends up across the athens area..where 2 to 3 inches of rain happened earlier this morning if it doesn't weaken. . But there will be some flooding too.

 

Interesting seeing how far ahead the line is/how fast it's moving through the ne ga mountains/rabun county vs areas to the south..it has to be moving twice as fast as it is toward atlanta. Quite a bow from gainesville northeast.

 

edit...just 25 minutes after posting this, the line is quickly weakening from east of atlanta to say north of athens.  Not surprising though which is why i mentioned it weakening above because 9 out of 10 times at least storms/ or a line of storms weakens as it moves past atlanta. I'm not sure why this always happens but I'm guessing it has something to do with the elevation drop...although the elevation drop isn't but a couple of hundred feet and you wouldn't think that would be enough to cause such weakening. But it happens almost every time.

same here, with the wedge and usual collapse of storms as they head into it i was a bit surprised this morning as well.  some thunder now but not like earlier when the line blew through.  trees down around town and a lot of thunder and lightning. scared my poor dog and she flew in the bed and jumped on top of me (happy sleep in saturday morning lol)

 

the metal chairs and stuff on my deck got blown around and tipped over.  thats pretty impressive :twister:

 

 

 

that was more intense than anything I had for all 2013.   It was pretty bad up this way, traffic lights blown off their lines.  Many trees down, it hit very very fast.

 

same here, probably the biggest (not long lasting) intensity than all of last year. we got a ton of rain, but most was just rain or heavy rain and was a pretty cloudy summer.

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Tornado warning Alamance, Chatham and Orange. It looks like it will eventually impact Durham, northern Wake and Franklin counties.

 

Even without a tornado it is about to get flat nasty in that area lots of screaming wind real close to the ground there....looks like northern parts of Chapel Hill is going to catch the worst of it..

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Here at ILM; 75 degrees, wind(s) gusting from 26~37 SSW overcast/partly couldy @ 2300 ft..

>>>Next forecast challenge is
whether and when a tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be
needed for the remainder of our forecast area. Relevant portions
of previous discussions follow:

Analysis of morning soundings...latest model data and radar trends
suggest little change from earlier thinking on nature and timing
of todays event. This is still shaping up to be a high shear/Low
Cape severe event with a focus on the afternoon and early evening
hours. Instability is expected to be modest...but a strong low level jet in
advance of a sharp upper trough and strong ascent associated with
a vigorous cold front will set the stage for potential severe
weather in the form of damaging winds from severe
showers/thunderstorms and possibly tornados embedded within line
echo wave patterns. One such lewp with a history of wind damage is
rapidly advancing upon the County Warning Area from the west. However...it is
still a good 200 miles to the west of Marlboro County. Have raised
probability of precipitation this afternoon to the categorical level and increased
afternoon quantitative precipitation forecast values...otherwise no changes to the forecast for
today.<<<
 

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