Record Breaking Cold January 3-4 & 7-8 Discussion & Observations

[NorthShoreWx]

I'm not sure what your point is. We don't record temperature at 1000 feet. But what we do know is that thicknesses worldwide have risen over the last several decades, which would mean temperatures are rising at more places besides the surface.

 

I was pondering whether the vertical growth (on average) of structures in NYC would heat the surface more than it would the air just above the buildings.  This is significant, because if that is the case, you could measure the change in temperatures at the building tops over the same period and use that information to try and better understand the correlation between building density/mass and UHI affect at the surface.

[Sundog]

I don't believe that the growth upward has been insignificant. If it helps, I don't think that is 100% of the cause, but it is significant. As I said earlier, I think there has also been a certain amount of plain old dumb luck that has kept the city from getting to 0 for 20 years.

If you look at a post earlier in this thread with charts illustrating the change in winds and temperature over ~85 meters on the BNL tower this morning you can get an idea of how shallow is the layer that decouples from the prevailing winds. The tall buildings direct that flow downward mixing out any surface cooling (i.e., making it very hard to radiate). That is why Queens still radiates better than Manhattan despite being just as developed at the surface.

I'm not denying what you state, but it doesn't fit the point of the conversation. Evrything east of about 1/4 mile from the east river is largely the same as it was in 1970. There were no empty lots left by then and the same homes largely exist, most predating 1970 by quite a bit.

A poster said NYC is warming because of UHI, but it's not just Central Park that is rising, all city stations are. Not only that, but places that have seen zero UHI and are literally in the middle of nowhere are warming as well.

My link pointed to warming in the High Peaks region of the Adirondacks, an area that is extremely remote and is considered pristine.

This whole conversation started with people denying global warming because we got to 9 degrees or 8 degrees this morning, and I simply wanted to point out that that is a false conclusion to draw.

[NorthShoreWx]

 I meant for DJF or calendar winter.

 

I have to agree, that will be a tall order, Regardless of the cause, the trend has been undeniable.

[pazzo83]

I don't believe that the growth upward has been insignificant.  If it helps, I don't think that is 100% of the cause, but it is significant.  As I said earlier, I think there has also been a certain amount of plain old dumb luck that has kept the city from getting to 0 for 20 years.

 

If you look at a post earlier in this thread with charts illustrating the change in winds and temperature over ~85 meters on the BNL tower this morning you can get an idea of how shallow is the layer that decouples from the prevailing winds.  The tall buildings direct that flow downward mixing out any surface cooling (i.e., making it very hard to radiate).  That is why Queens still radiates better than Manhattan despite being just as developed at the surface.

 

Manhattan is far more developed than Queens at the surface.  In Queens you have yards and stuff.  Plus, I don't think you're going to see much a difference in terms of heating between a 60-65 story bldg and an 80-85 story building.  Plus, the density of 800+ ft buildings isn't yet enough to have any material effect.

[Fantom X]

large difference in temps between south shore and closer to north shore

[NorthShoreWx]

I'm not denying what you state, but it doesn't fit the point of the conversation. Evrything east of about 1/4 mile from the east river is largely the same as it was in 1970. There were no empty lots left by then and the same homes largely exist, most predating 1970 by quite a bit.

A poster said NYC is warming because of UHI, but it's not just Central Park that is rising, all city stations are. Not only that, but places that have seen zero UHI and are literally in the middle of nowhere are warming as well.

My link pointed to warming in the High Peaks region of the Adirondacks, an area that is extremely remote and is considered pristine.

This whole conversation started with people denying global warming because we got to 9 degrees or 8 degrees this morning, and I simply wanted to point out that that is a false conclusion to draw.

 

Actually, the conversation was about how hard it has been to get Central Park to 0.  You directed it to a global warming discussion.

 

The UHI is definitely a contributor to the higher mins in NYC.  I would submit that "radiational cooling" barely exists, if at all in Manhattan.  Any one who pays attention can tell you that if the wind at KNYC goes calm in the evening, the temp is not going to fall and will  more likely rise slightly.

 

Its hard to look at the record of old temperatures in NYC and discern how many of the sub-zero days were aided by radiational cooling that no longer exists, but I'd bet at least some of them were.

[Sundog]

Actually, the conversation was about how hard it has been to get Central Park to 0. You directed it to a global warming discussion.

The UHI is definitely a contributor to the higher mins in NYC. I would submit that "radiational cooling" barely exists, if at all in Manhattan. Any one who pays attention can tell you that if the wind at KNYC goes calm in the evening, the temp is not going to fall and will more likely rise slightly.

Its hard to look at the record of old temperatures in NYC and discern how many of the sub-zero days were aided by radiational cooling that no longer exists, but I'd bet at least some of them were.

REDMK6GLI posted "Global warming freaks must be pissed right now. Record cold deals blow to their case haha" when referring to this cold snap. That's when I made the first post. The other people chimed in and it went from there.

[NorthShoreWx]

large difference in temps between south shore and closer to north shore

 

With light northerly winds, the south shore radiates better.  With light southerly winds, the roles are reversed.  Its hard for me to get a calm night when the wind blowing from the direction of LIS.  With light winds from the south, then the north shore is effectively "inland" and more likely to go calm.  I haven't checked the winds for Tuesday night yet, but we might have a pretty good chance of some very low temps if we can go calm, even if the snow cover gets decimated.  As long as the center of an arctic high is to the west, north shore is not going to radiate as well as center and southern LI.

[NorthShoreWx]

Redmk6gli posted "Global warming freaks must be pissed right now. Record cold deals blow to their case haha" when referring to this cold snap. That when I made the first post. The other people chimed in and it went from there.

 

That comment had no place here.  It also made no sense.

 

You should have ignored it instead of firing up the debate.

[Sundog]

That comment had no place here. You should have ignored it instead of firing up the debate.

Sometimes when stuff like that goes unchallenged it is seen as possibly credible. I cant allow that to happen. Happens in all areas of life unfortunately.

[donsutherland1]

The cold in the midwest is absolutely epic.  Mid -10s in Chicago and Indy on Monday for highs.  Holy. Crap.  Chicago's all time record low is -27F I believe, Don has it on the main weather page.

With respect to Chicago:

 

Five lowest maximum temperatures:

1. -11°, 12/24/1983 and 1/18/1994

2. -10°, 1/25/1897

3. -8°, 2/9/1899

4. -7°, 1/16/1977

5. -6°, 1/4/1884, 2/9/1933, 1/29/1966, and 12/23/1983

 

Five lowest minimum temperatures:

1. -27°, 1/20/1985

2. -26°, 1/10/1982

3. -25°, 1/16/1982 and 12/24/1983

4. -23°, 12/24/1872, 1/17/1982, and 1/19/1985

5. -22°, 1/21/1984

[NorthShoreWx]

Sometimes when stuff like that goes unchallenged it is seen as possibly credible. I cant allow that to happen. Happens in all areas of life unfortunately.

 

This is the fallacy of thinking that you have to do take action when someone is wrong on the internet.  That can be a very time consuming, not to mention futile exercise.

[uncle W]

the development of the city really started in the late 1800's...The 1890's averaged about a degree warmer than the 1870's and 80's...The next building boom was in the 1920's...Most of the brick buildings in my old neighborhood were built in the 1920's...The 1930's averaged about a degree above the 1900's-1920's...Another building boom was in the 1960's and early 70's...temps on averaged rose about a degree...the development of eastern Jersey when cold air has to pass over before it gets here also added to the uhi...

ten yr ave.temp....highest.....lowest.
1870's.........51.8..........53.6.........49.4
1880's.........51.6..........53.2.........49.3
1890's.........52.9..........54.6.........50.4
1900's.........53.1..........55.0.........50.7
1910's.........53.0..........55.0.........50.7
1920's.........53.1..........54.9.........51.2
1930's.........54.4..........55.8.........53.0
1940's.........54.3..........56.9.........51.9
1950's.........54.8..........57.0.........52.5
1960's.........54.2..........55.1.........53.0
1970's.........54.6..........56.1.........53.0
1980's.........55.1..........56.0.........54.0
1990's.........55.6..........57.2.........53.7
2000's.........55.1..........56.8.........53.4
2010's.........56.4..........57.3.........55.3
the record is 57.3 set in 2012...

[NorthShoreWx]

With respect to Chicago:

 

Five lowest maximum temperatures:

1. -11°, 12/24/1983 and 1/18/1994

2. -10°, 1/25/1897

3. -8°, 2/9/1899

4. -7°, 1/16/1977

5. -6°, 1/4/1884, 2/9/1933, 1/29/1966, and 12/23/1983

 

Five lowest minimum temperatures:

1. -27°, 1/20/1985

2. -26°, 1/10/1982

3. -25°, 1/16/1982 and 12/24/1983

4. -23°, 12/24/1872, 1/17/1982, and 1/19/1985

5. -22°, 1/21/1984

 

Good stuff Don!  It is also an interesting contrast with NYC given that some of Chicago's coldest mins and maxes were relatively recent.  NYC's are all very old.

[Sundog]

This is the fallacy of thinking that you have to do take action when someone is wrong on the internet. That can be a very time consuming, not to mention futile exercise.

Ha I instantly thought of this:

But on a science board I just couldn't help myself.

[doncat]

Well really radiating outside the city tonight... 14 here currently.

[TWCCraig]

That comment had no place here.  It also made no sense.

 

You should have ignored it instead of firing up the debate.

 

I have to say I also chimed in (before Sundog) because that statement Redmk6gli made was a very ridiculous statement.

 

Also Sundog, I 100% agree and understand everything you have posted in this thread.

 

As far as development of the city goes, it has slowed. There's no comparison to the rate at which the city expanded and developed in the 1800's and early 1900's to which it is now.

[Fantom X]

With light northerly winds, the south shore radiates better.  With light southerly winds, the roles are reversed.  Its hard for me to get a calm night when the wind blowing from the direction of LIS.  With light winds from the south, then the north shore is effectively "inland" and more likely to go calm.  I haven't checked the winds for Tuesday night yet, but we might have a pretty good chance of some very low temps if we can go calm, even if the snow cover gets decimated.  As long as the center of an arctic high is to the west, north shore is not going to radiate as well as center and southern LI.

Agreed. One of the things I noticed when I used to live in coram and port Jeff sta.. Excellent radiation all cooling on nites like this.. There is a PWS near where I used to live in coram that is now reading 9 degrees

[user13]

I have to say I also chimed in (before Sundog) because that statement Redmk6gli made was a very ridiculous statement.

 

Also Sundog, I 100% agree and understand everything you have posted in this thread.

 

As far as development of the city goes, it has slowed. There's no comparison to the rate at which the city expanded and developed in the 1800's and early 1900's to which it is now.

There was minimal infrastructure around central park until after 1920.....

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NULrNgCVbT8#t=40

 

I mean common they weren't even able to build on the Hudson side till the 70s (20+% of downtown)

[TWCCraig]

There was minimal infrastructure around central park until after 1920.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NULrNgCVbT8#t=40

 

That only looks to only account high rises. I found a book several months ago, about a 70 year old book, had maps and pics of NYC back to the 1600's. 1800's development sky rocketed and continued into 1900's, still can't even compare to now. Whether it's the 1800's or 1930's, development has slowed significantly. It still is developing though, not a lot.

 

Good thing temps weren't recorded in the same spot back then. Station was a bit more south where it was a bit more developed. Funny how it mentions Arsenal building, means the area had to have some development.

 

December 1868 - December 31, 1919: Arsenal Building 5th Ave (between 63rd & 64th)

January 1, 1920 - present: Belvedere Castle Transverse Rd (near 79th & 81st)

[odwalla]

The current trend in Manhattan has the potential to alter the region's climate even further, as so many 1,000'+ buildings (seven new ones -- we currently only have six!) are under construction. More will follow too, and NYC could have up to 20 by 2020.

While that # is relatively small, the effect of very tall structures on the region's climate is difficult to quantify, as it has not yet been an issue. I think there is a possibility that the continued vertical extension of Manhattan -- Midtown and Downtown are practically turning into a mini-mountain range -- will have further impacts we do not yet know, altering both temperatures and precipitation for parts of the region.

As for temps in Manhattan, remember that measurements in the park are typically much colder than in built-up areas. Midtown and Downtown are just so warm, always; I would bet neither neighborhood will ever fall below 0 again, and the closest climate comparison (outside of snowfall, which they can still manage), is Atlanta, or Charlotte. Soon, it will be Mobile & New Orleans...the next few decades could see the first winters where the city never falls below 20 degrees.

[SnoSki14]

Much colder tonight than forecast.

[mgerb]

With all this talk about UHIs, I wanted to mention that a station located in a park setting in Jersey City (Liberty Science Center in Liberty State Park), not far as the crow flies from Manhattan or downtown Jersey City, WAS able to get below zero last night. Since this station was established a few years back, it's been fascinating to see how much colder it tends to be on radiating nights than lots of the surrounding locations. In fact, right now, it's 11 degrees, far below any of the surrounding ASOS stations. 

 

[doncat]

Much colder tonight than forecast.

Yeah 13 here currently.

[FPizz]

11 here

[snywx]

Currently 6f here...

[snywx]

The current trend in Manhattan has the potential to alter the region's climate even further, as so many 1,000'+ buildings (seven new ones -- we currently only have six!) are under construction. More will follow too, and NYC could have up to 20 by 2020.

While that # is relatively small, the effect of very tall structures on the region's climate is difficult to quantify, as it has not yet been an issue. I think there is a possibility that the continued vertical extension of Manhattan -- Midtown and Downtown are practically turning into a mini-mountain range -- will have further impacts we do not yet know, altering both temperatures and precipitation for parts of the region.

As for temps in Manhattan, remember that measurements in the park are typically much colder than in built-up areas. Midtown and Downtown are just so warm, always; I would bet neither neighborhood will ever fall below 0 again, and the closest climate comparison (outside of snowfall, which they can still manage), is Atlanta, or Charlotte. Soon, it will be Mobile & New Orleans...the next few decades could see the first winters where the city never falls below 20 degrees.

 

Just had a 22f drop on my drive home from Manhattan.. Ridiculous!

[Hailstorm]

lol yea sorry about that we had a good conversation going on in here.

 

Check out what is coming our way on the 60 hour 4k

Too bad all of that will modify when it enters NYC. What a shameful waste of an epic air mass.

 

And Upton just raised the low temps for NYC on Tuesday.

[green tube]

That Packers game is going to be crazy

 

i think the giants packers playoff game was colder... i think it was a few degrees below zero.  i think.

[Rjay]

i think the giants packers playoff game was colder... i think it was a few degrees below zero. i think.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/01/04/forecast-improves-for-green-bay-a-little/