Stormlover74 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Anyone have the gefs? Previous page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm wondering if we see a Boxing Day type trend with the models by tomorrow or Wednesday because the setup really doesn't look bad. I'm surprised the models are so far east with this. The block in the Davis Strait looks solid, there are hints at a negatively tilted trough, and the pattern is quite amplified with nice ridging out west, but we'll see I guess. I guess that could happen. Crazier things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 ================================================== 00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION AND PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES ================================================== NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT. ================================================== ...BROAD PROGRESSIVE CYCLONE TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S... ...ASSOCIATED LOWER OHIO SURFACE LOW PASSING OFF TO A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW... PREFERENCE: 18Z GFS...SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN THIS FORECAST IS VERY SENSITIVE TO THE STRENGTH OF A SHORTWAVE THAT WAS OFFSHORE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AT 00Z...AND WHICH WILL DIVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON DAY 2. THIS SENSITIVITY WAS EVIDENCED NOT ONLY BY THE SPREAD IN OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE...BUT ALSO BY AN UNUSUAL AMOUNT OF SPREAD AMONG THE 18Z GEFS MEMBERS. IN VIEWING THE SOLUTION OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST AT THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE...03/12Z...THE GEFS MEMBERS WERE LOOSELY SCATTERED RATHER THAN SHOWING THEIR TYPICAL TIGHT SUPPORT FOR THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THE GEFS MEAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FEATURE VERY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS ASIDE FROM THE GFS BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE. WITH THE GFS SYSTEM BEING SOMEWHAT SYSTEMATICALLY PROGRESSIVE...ONE WOULD TEND TO LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. IN LOOKING TO CHOOSE AN OPERATIONAL MODEL AS THE BASIS FOR FORECAST PRODUCTS...THE 12Z AND 18Z GFS APPEAR USEFUL...AS THEY WERE SLOWER...MORE AMPLIFIED AND DEEPER THAN THE GEFS MEAN...BUT NOT SO EXTREME IN THOSE RESPECTS AS THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF. WHAT IS EVIDENT FROM VIEWING SEVERAL CYCLES OF ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS...IS THAT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN DEEPENED WITH THE 30/00Z CYCLE AND THEN STEADIED OUT...AND THAT THE OPERATIONAL UKMET AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN ON THE SLOW/DEEP SIDE OF THE MEAN. THESE DEEPER AND MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS ARE SUPPORTED BY ABOUT 20 PERCENT OF THE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND A FEW GEFS MEMBERS. WE NOTE...HOWEVER...THAT IN RECENT WEEKS THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF HAS ERRED ON THE DEEP SIDE BEFORE MOVING BACK TOWARD THE MEAN...AND THE UKMET HAS NOT DONE WELL HANDLING THE SPEED OR AMPLITUDE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. WE CONTINUE TO TAKE A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH BY FAVORING THE MIDDLE-GROUND 18Z GFS. THE 00Z GFS WAS SLIGHTLY FASTER...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE EAST COAST...BUT IT WAS CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREFERENCE THROUGH DAY 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 So they like the 18z gfs...you don't see that very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Someone start the euro play by play already. The anxiety is killing me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Ridge is flatter out west, somewhat following the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This run is going to be night and day from 12z, no way this is as close as 12z was to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This run is going to be night and day from 12z, no way this is as close as 12z was to the coast.based off of a 24 hr prog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro is coming in flatter. I really don't see how this could be like the previous days runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Flatter ridge out west, more progressive trof in mid section of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It's only out to 60. Let it play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro is coming in flatter. I really don't see how this could be like the previous days runs... I guess this is a reality check. 2-4" of snow is a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 It should still be a decent hit, but not the blizzard some were hoping for after 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Quite a bit less amplified for sure. 1016mb low over Mississippi at hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Tossing both the GFS and Euro? lol i was being sarcastic... the writing has been on the wall with this one....the trough just couldn't sharpen up....even in the best runs it just slid out east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hour 66 secondary popping over the outer banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Tossing both the GFS and Euro? lol i was being sarcastic... the writing has been on the wall with this one....the trough just couldn't sharpen up....even in the best runs it just slid out east Got ya, that's why I edited, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hour 66 secondary popping over the outer banks. how does h5/h7/h85 look....surface features are results of all the important levels.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 If this verified Thursday would be mostly cloudy all day. Little to zero over running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 i was being sarcastic... the writing has been on the wall with this one....the trough just couldn't sharpen up....even in the best runs it just slid out east What writing? This run will still produce a snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Disgusting, weak, broad low pressure off of NC by 72 hours... Shoots NE well south of the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 If this verified Thursday would be mostly cloudy all day. Little to zero over running. Meanwhile a lot of the media stations have snow starting on Wednesday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Meanwhile a lot of the media stations have snow starting on Wednesday lol All based on the 12z ECMWF and the NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hour 78, some very light snow as the coastal scoots way east. Moderate precip staying offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Meanwhile a lot of the media stations have snow starting on Wednesday lol meanwhile this is going to wind up being a light snow/flurries system with 1-3" for the lucky ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hour 78, some very light snow as the coastal scoots way east. Moderate precip staying offshore. all hail, euro trash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Why is everyone surprised. You expected a blizzard on every run? That mentioned, the euro has been so bad compare to how it was a few years back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Why are people living and dying run to run 3 days out???.. 1 run shows a big storm and people hop on the bandwagon the next run doesn't show it and all the " I told u so" posters come out..very annoying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Well I guess that's it then, if the Euro is right we pretty much get nothing. I didn't think it would be that bad. Too much shifting though so something's up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Hour 78, some very light snow as the coastal scoots way east. Moderate precip staying offshore. So a major snowstorm to a light event if that in 12 hrs?...models doing a stellar job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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