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Hybrid frisbee storm - December 31-January 2

snowstormcanuck

By snowstormcanuck,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Justin

Justin

Posted
Posted

First guess for here/QC is 1-2" with Tue/Tue night wave, then another 3-6" with the Wed/Wed night wave.  Grand total 4-8".  Trend today has been for less QPF for this area, but I'm hoping that trend stops with today's 12z.  The Duquque to Geos/Chicago corridor is looking good for 8-12"+ IMO.

 

I guess I'm not quite as bullish for here with either of these systems, the trend on systems this year seems to be to cut the qpf down as we get closer.  I wouldn't be shocked if the total between both systems is on the order of 3-5" here locally.  Certainly looks better up by Rockford and points E and ENE from there.  Wouldn't be shocked, much like you, to see a few places along the IL/WI line through lower Michigan tickle or exceed the 12" threshold.  For our area I'd like this thing to be a bit more South and perhaps a hair slower to get more moisture ingested into it.  We'll see over the coming 48hrs. I guess what the models show.  Nothing to get to excited about at this point. 

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

Can't wait for the north trend everyone's calling for

 

this is a classic snow event for our subforum.....CMH excluded.   A nice moderate hit for the I-80 crowd, major cities...chi, ft.wayne, Toledo, Detroit, CLE.   I suspect that the 12z euro run is the extreme of the southern options...and a bit of a correction north from here on out.     

This is a classic central OH, "if the dryslot doesn't get us, the WTOD will" scenario.   Just hope we can get some snowcover before that kick-in-the-a** arctic attack hits.

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

I guess I'm not quite as bullish for here with either of these systems, the trend on systems this year seems to be to cut the qpf down as we get closer.  I wouldn't be shocked if the total between both systems is on the order of 3-5" here locally.  Certainly looks better up by Rockford and points E and ENE from there.  Wouldn't be shocked, much like you, to see a few places along the IL/WI line through lower Michigan tickle or exceed the 12" threshold.  For our area I'd like this thing to be a bit more South and perhaps a hair slower to get more moisture ingested into it.  We'll see over the coming 48hrs. I guess what the models show.  Nothing to get to excited about at this point. 

 

cannot be understated

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Trent

Trent

Posted
Posted

odd to see precip totals increase from Ohio east.  Usually in this type of set up, where a primary heads into Ohio and a secondary reforms,  you see a drop off in qpf between OH and the Apps.   Nice to look at but I'm verrrry skeptical.

 

I think some of those precip image totals have today's rainfall tainting them for the Ohio Valley. So that's likely a reduction of 0.3 - 0.5" of QPF from those maps for areas south of the turnpikes.

 

However, for northern Ohio up through BUF, the increased totals are likely lake enhancement from Lake Erie and Ontario.

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Trent

Trent

Posted
Posted

Is that a TV station?

 

WTOD = Warm Tongue Of Death

 

This popular acronym has been used on the weather boards in the Ohio Valley region for years to describe the ever present and under modeled surge of warm air to the west of the Apps. It never fails for this warm surge to push all the way up to Lake Erie during large events.

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kab2791

kab2791

Posted
Posted

Thought I'd add this. It is the Experimental FIMzeus. This is what GRR had to say about it this morning:

 

WHAT WE WILL BE WATCHING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SNOW STORM OVER OUR
SOUTHERN ROWS OF COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL SEEM TO LIKE THE IDEA OF A
SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS IS
FARTHER NORTH THEN ANY OF THE MODELS SUGGESTED ON THE 12Z RUN BUT IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 28TH/12Z FIM ZEUS MODEL DID SHOW THIS
FEATURE BRINGING SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE GRR CWA UP TO ROUTE 10. SO
GIVEN HOW WELL THE FIM ZEUS HAS BEEN DOING AND THAT THE 00Z ECMWF
CANADIAN AND GFS ALL LIKE THE IDEA AS WELL AS THE GFS ENSEMBLES I
WILL BUY INTO THE IDEA WITH SOME RESERVATION (I LIKE HAVING 3 MODEL
RUNS IN A ROW WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION).

post-1245-0-47925300-1388349438_thumb.pn

 

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fim9_zeus&domain=236&run_time=29+Dec+2013+-+12Z

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A-L-E-K

A-L-E-K

Posted
Posted

lol don't lie, you like where you sit and you'll be inviting Geos down to teach proper measuring

 

 

i've already said I like where we sit and if anything, i'm more concerned about shifts south. It's just a bad long range NAM run. When the consistent GFS jumps, i'll be worried. As mentioned above, SREF mean looks GFS like.

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