tarheelwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Fly into Boston tomorrow and back home on Thursday. Maybe some of thier snow will rub off on me and I can bring it back. 00z NAM gives Boston 8-9" on Wednesday. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 0z gfs quite a bit slower swinging the polar energy down at 75. Don't know if that's good or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 0z gfs quite a bit slower swinging the polar energy down at 75. Don't know if that's good or not. Yeah, to be honest I can't tell if I like it or not looking at 5h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yeah, to be honest I can't tell if I like it or not looking at 5h. It's a big change. Not apt to look deep into unless the others follow suit. It's gone from big storm to no storm at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Mr. Spann's thoughts on this weekend. http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=78788 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 At 96 it just looks like alot of retreating cold air to me. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yeah, to be honest I can't tell if I like it or not looking at 5h.If it slows , can it let more cold air get in before the storm gets down this way, or is there still not much cold to our north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 LOL. No storm at all. Good model consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It's a big change. Not apt to look deep into unless the others follow suit. It's gone from big storm to no storm at all. Fits the bill! Has there ever been a winter storm we chased the gfs doesn't loose around day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It's a big change. Not apt to look deep into unless the others follow suit. It's gone from big storm to no storm at all. Isn't this the timeframe when the GFS normally drops a storm for a day or two. The Euro ought to be interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 LOL. No storm at all. Good model consistency. There is still a storm I'm just not sure how to explain it. It looked completely different than previous runs. Someone smarter than me will have to explain...LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 @ 147 it looks more like a miller b transferring off the NC/SC coast. One good thing is the high coming out of Canada around the Dakotas is further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 If the GFS could speak, it would tell us that his/her cat's breath smells like cat food. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 There is still a storm I'm just not sure how to explain it. It looked completely different than previous runs. Someone smarter than me will have to explain...LOL! Yeah, I see it now. Weird looking storm... Looks like it actually manages to scrape us with the deformation band and gives us some accumulating backside snow, LMAO. Of course, it crushes DC. I'm going to toss this run for now... Hey, I'll take it over a cutter (I think?). WTH is this mess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 @ 150 it is bringing some winter weather to parts of NC/SC/N. Ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 @ 147 it looks more like a miller b transferring off the NC/SC coast. One good thing is the high coming out of Canada around the Dakotas is further east.So no low showing up in the lakes? I think that was cr # 1 item to look for! No lakes low= good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 So no low showing up in the lakes? I think that was cr # 1 item to look for! No lakes low= good It really looked different than any previous run at 5h. As Wow said, I'd have to put this run on the back burner until other models showed this solution. But to answer your question there was some energy around the lakes but the storm was later so I don't think it influenced it as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 It may just go to show that the "trend" today was not really a trend - just a fluke that there appeared to be gaining consensus. On the other hand, we all know it is probably just one to throw out. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 ukmet and CMC both have weak lows going way OTS between 120 and 144hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 ukmet and CMC both have weak lows going way OTS between 120 and 144hrs. Well, that's a HUGE change considering they were slamming lows into central GA and NW SC at 12z... The GFS run may have been goofy, but there might be real changes. Hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 ukmet and CMC both have weak lows going way OTS between 120 and 144hrs. Too funny...So since tracking this storm we've seen a low going into Chicago to going way OTS. I love this hobby... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm just glad we're not looking at a run going to the lakes with cold rain here. We'll see what the euro has to say. Needless to say, I don't think there is any expectation from the euro tonight. Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 ukmet and CMC both have weak lows going way OTS between 120 and 144hrs. Does it look like anything happens after 144? Also, is there cold air around at 120 and 144? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Does it look like anything happens after 144? Also, is there cold air around at 120 and 144? TW The Canadian is definitely a miss, I'd think. There's a 1010(ish) mb LP way, way out to sea at hr 150. The frames before hr 150 aren't available yet (the panels come out in a weird order on this site). http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2014020400/gemnh-0-6.png The UKMet might be close enough to give us some love, though I doubt it and don't know about temperatures. It's definitely too far out to sea at hr 144, but I don't know what happens between 120-144. http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014020400/UN144-21.GIF?04-05 Better maps should be out soon. EDIT: Oh, looks like the Canadian does have a storm at day 5, but it's wide right. http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/136_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Amazing that the NAM and GFS are so different at 84 with the late week system. I actually feel a little better after this run as I think it is obvious that everything is probably still on the table. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 The ensembles agree with the OP run. WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Well, the Euro split our storm into two lows and took them both OTS. However, we didn't escape without a little rain with temperatures in the 30s. Wacky. It's torching at 850 mb (the 5C isotherm runs along the I-85 corridor between GSO and Durham at hr 120), unfortunately, and 2m temperatures look to be in the mid to upper 30s. No one north of Richmond really gets anything (at least through hr 120). I guess it's yet another wildly different solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 And on the GB meter, the word the other day was it will be warm for the next two weeks. Now, at 11, it's it might be cold It's model roulette, and who knows what the weekend brings Speak ye not with assurance upon the weather It's a one frame closed ull now. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 6z gfs has a closed low that moves through Kentucky with a transfer to a low over Charlotte. Lots of moisture and it looks to pound the mid Atlantic. Looks too warm for most of NC though with a 1028mb high over eastern Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 6z gfs has a closed low that moves through Kentucky with a transfer to a low over Charlotte. Lots of moisture and it looks to pound the mid Atlantic. Looks too warm for most of NC though with a 1028mb high over eastern Canada Doesn't look to bad for the Mnts. Looks like a good one for most of the MA but, wow it explodes & just crushes the NE. HR 132 1009 L just SE of Charlotte. HR 153 967 L E of Cape Cod. Am I reading this correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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