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January 2014 temperature forecast contest

Roger Smith

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Posted

2014 Temperature Forecast Contest

 

With the holidays and New Years forming a massive block in the flow of time, I will be ultra-lenient on late penalties as we get started, and they won't even kick in until 18z Thursday 2nd, then will run at their usual rate of 1% an hour to 06z Saturday 4th -- after that (we would be at 36% by then) the penalties will increase to 2% an hour for the rest of the weekend. So that should allow most to straggle in and issue a forecast with no penalty, or a very minor one, to get their contest year underway.

 

There was a discussion in the December thread about format. Some folks would like to take a crack at forecasting three western stations to complete the process of expanding the contest to be a better reflection of the vast climatic challenge that is the U.S.A. (then there's, well let's not even think about that). So, I didn't want anyone to feel pressure of having to do more work to play in the contest, and the three western stations will run as a separate contest (in these threads), you can enter or ignore the three western stations (which will be DEN, PHX and SEA). Scores will be issued the same way as our regular six stations, which in case you're new, are DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, ATL and IAH.

 

So, to enter, just supply temperature anomalies (F deg relative to 1981-2010 normals as per CF6 bulletins) for either the six or all nine if you want to test your western forecasts against a field (I will cancel this if the field turns out to be fewer than one-third of our main contest). Those western scores will remain separate and reported in a different post than the regular stations.

 

Information about the final standings in the 2013 contest will be posted in the Dec 2013 contest thread around 1-2 of January. I have started a countdown based on NWS forecasts to end of the month.

 

So, if you're ready to play, supply six (or nine) temperature anomalies in this order (and preferably in this format, it helps me construct a table of entries) ...

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __IAH ________ (optional) DEN__PHX__SEA

 

and good luck this year.

 

_____________________________________________________________

 

Policy on late penalties ... generally 1% per hour late starting 06z 1st of month, but this relaxes to 1% every 2 hours any time that the first is on a weekend, or is a Friday before a holiday weekend, and in those cases, the penalties remain 1% every 2 hours until 12z Monday or Tuesday whenever the said weekend is fully over, then penalties pick up at regular rate and may increase further if organizer wishes to terminate entries by 5th.

 

Scoring is simple -- You start with 100 points per site, and lose 2 for each 0.1 F deg error, except where actual value is 5.1 deg or more (plus or minus) in which case, penalties decrease on a sliding scale that is defined by 1 pt for n intervals at either end of range 0.0 to actual, and 2 pt for n' intervals where n + n' equals anomaly in tenths. Example, 7.0 generates scores of 1 to 20 for 0.1 to 2.0, then scores of 22 to 80 for forecasts of 2.1 to 5.0, and 81 to 100 for 5.1 to 7.0, also 99 to 81 for 7.1 to 8.9 then decreasing by 2 pts for any forecasts above 9.0.

 

The scores thus derived are then subjected to the late penalty and rounded to nearest integer. A forecaster could change a forecast within the late penalty interval  and only the amended forecast(s) would be penalized. No changes accepted once the table is posted. Table is official as members have ability to edit after that date. However, perceived errors in table can be challenged at organizer's discretion. Take care to issue forecasts in same order as contest, this can create errors in posting in tables. (e.g., if you go BOS, NYC, DCA then I might not notice).

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RodneyS

RodneyS

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Bos  -2.1

NYC -2.7

DCA -3.1

ATL  -1.1

ORD  -3.2

IAH -1.8

 

DEN -0.2

PHX -1.7

SEA -1.3

 

 

Bos   -1.9

NYC -2.2

DCA -1.2

ATL  -0.3

ORD  -2.4

IAH +0.2

 

DEN +0.4

PHX +0.9

SEA +1.2

 

Please make Roger's life easier by listing your predictions in the correct order, which is:

 

DCA 

NYC 

BOS 

ORD 

ATL 

IAH 

 

DEN 

PHX 

SEA 

 

Also, he prefers the following format:

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __IAH ________ (optional) DEN__PHX__SEA

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Any format is okay, I will take care to get the numbers to their right places.

 

For me, it's going to be

 

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA

 

--3.8 __ --4.0 __ --4.6 ____ --8.6 __ --5.2 __ --3.2 ____ +4.3 __ +1.7 __ +2.4

 

Frigid pattern even if one or two days are mild. Chinook warming of already mild air masses for DEN.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Note -- to encourage participation and given the New Years holiday, no penalties will be assessed until after 18z on Thursday, Jan 2.

 

Anyone who already entered can edit their forecasts as they wish, I don't start making up a table until penalties are underway, so you won't need to notify me, just edit away.

 

Just in case the Euro brings the ITCZ north of an ATL-IAH line or the GFS places the arctic vortex in the GOM. Happy New Year.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Forecasts for January 2014

 

 

FORECASTER _________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ________ (optional) DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Stebo ________________ +1.7 _ +1.2 _ +0.8 __ --1.2 _ +1.7 _ --1.1 _________ --0.7 _ --1.2 _ --0.6

RodneyS _____________ +1.2 _ +1.1 _ +1.7 __ --0.2 _ +2.6 _ --0.1 _________ --1.8 _ --3.2 _ --2.2

UncleW ______________ +1.0 _ +0.7 __ 0.0 __ --0.5 _ +0.8 _ --2.0

SD __________________ +1.0 _ +0.5 __  0.0 __ --1.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 _________ --2.0 _ --1.0 _ --1.0

weatherdude __________ +0.9 _ --0.4 _ --2.2 __ --6.2 _ +3.7 _ --0.5 _________ --4.0 _ --1.1 _ --1.2

cpick79 ____ (-23%) ___ +0.5 __+0.5 ___ 0.0 __ --1.0 _ +2.6 _ +0.8 _________ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ --1.3

 

Normal ________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

 

bkviking ______________ --0.8 _ --1.0 _ --1.4 __ --2.8 _ +0.8 _ +0.1 _________ --1.0 _ +1.0 _ --0.6

Damage in Tolland ______ --0.9 _ --1.9 _ --3.0 __ --3.5 __ 0.0 _ +0.4 _________ +1.9 _ +1.5 _ +1.0

wxdude64 ____________ --1.1 _ --1.8 _ --2.1 __ --3.1 _ +0.1 _ --0.5 _________ +0.3 _ +0.7 _ +0.1

ksammut _____________ --1.1 _ --2.3 _ --2.4 __ --3.4 _ --0.4 _ --1.8 __________ +0.2 _ --1.3 _ --1.3

H20Town_Wx _________ --1.3 _ --1.5 _ --1.6 __  --1.2 _ --0.9 _ --0.3 _________+1.6 _ +1.4 _ +0.4

donsutherland.1 ________--1.4 _ --2.5 _ --3.0 __ --4.5 _ +0.2 _ --0.9 ________ +1.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.2

 

Consensus ____________ --1.4 _ --2.2 _ --2.3 __ --3.1 _ +0.2 _ --0.5 _________ +0.2 _ +1.0 _ +0.1

 

Goobagooba __________ --1.5 _ --2.2 _ --3.1 __ --4.0 _ +2.2 _ --1.0 _________ +0.3 _ +3.0 _ +1.0

blazess556 ____________ --1.5 _ --2.6 _ --3.1 __ --4.7 _ +0.0 _ --0.7 _________ +1.3 _ +1.5 _ +1.0

OHweather ___________ --1.7 _ --1.5 _ --1.3 __ --5.0 _ --0.1 _ --0.7 _________ +3.0 _ +1.5 _ --0.2

Midlo Snow Maker ______ --2.2 _ --2.1 _ --1.9 __ --3.0 _ +0.5 _ --0.5 _________ --1.5 _ +1.7 _ --0.5

Tom _________________ --2.2 _ --3.2 _ --2.9 __ --4.4 _ --0.9  _ +0.2 _________+1.4 _ +0.9 _ +2.2

Isotherm _____________ --2.3 _ --2.6 _  --2.9 __ --5.4 _ +0.5 _ --0.5 _________ +1.6 _ +2.4 _ +1.9

hudsonvalley21 ________ --2.5 _ --2.8 _ --1.8 __ --2.0 _ --0.4 _ --0.4 _________ --0.2 _ +0.6 _ +1.0

Chicago Storm _ (-13%) _ --2.5 _ --3.0 _ --3.3 __ --4.5 _ --1.0 _ --0.5 _________ +0.1 _ +1.5 _ +1.0

Mallow _______________ --2.7 _ --2.9 _ --2.5 __ --3.1 _ --1.9 _ --0.9 __________+0.8 _ +1.9 __ 0.0

Tenman Johnson ______ --3.7 _  --3.2 _ --2.0 ___ --1.5 _ --2.3 _ --0.7    

Roger Smith __________ --3.8 _ --4.0 _ --4.6 ___ --8.6 _ --5.2 _ --3.2 ________ +4.3 _ +1.7 _ +2.4 

metalicwx366 _________ --3.9 _ --4.1 _ --6.2 ___ --7.0 _ +0.3 _ --1.9 ________ +1.6 _ +1.2 _ --0.9

 

_________________________________________________________________

 

 

Notes: I have checked these entries and believe they are correct. Any differences noted after today (Jan 3 edit) will be considered late edits (d.q. where suspect and not reported, late penalty points apply where noted).

 

Good luck, this looks like a very interesting month with quite a spread in forecasts (mid-month reversal obviously foreseen in some quarters)

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wxdude64

wxdude64

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Going to post these, hope Roger doesn't mind.....

 

After 6 days

 

DCA     NYC     BOS        ORD     ATL     IAH        DEN     PHX     SEA

 

-3.9     -6.9     -7.5       -14.2     -7.3    -6.7        -7.8     +2.3     +0.3

 

Sad thing is tomorrow (7th) will create even larger minus numbers for most locations.

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