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ORH_wxman

December 17th Clipper Discussion

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GEFS certainly side with the op.

Gefs are a nice hit. Coup of the early winter of flop. Euro should bend on squashing the first s/w if this is legit.

All models are struggling this winter with the strength of s/ws. Weird

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Remember that storm in early January of last year that the GFS and GEFS blew up as a tucked in coastal 24-36 hours out? We still ended up getting a decent storm in se mass..but overall the GFS and the agreeable GEFS were out to lunch. Hopefully this isn't a repeat.

 

Well they do agree in a very similar fashion this time. Just need to see what the euro does...what you don't want is this to be the climax and the 6z and 12z runs back down a bit.

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Just figured I would post this here, (i know it's not the right place), are there any basic sites you guys know of that do a good job explaining the models for events like this? I wasn't able to find any basic info on the forums. 

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Well I'm out. Hopefully the GFS is correct, but I still question the aggressiveness of the model. No doubt it will snow and probably a moderate snow event for some areas.

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Well I'm out. Hopefully the GFS is correct, but I still question the aggressiveness of the model. No doubt it will snow and probably a moderate snow event for some areas.

Sounds good.  If we're throwing flags out, meaning we'll have to take 3-4" over 6"+, I'll take that concession.  Should be fun to watch unfold.

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Well I'm out. Hopefully the GFS is correct, but I still question the aggressiveness of the model. No doubt it will snow and probably a moderate snow event for some areas.

Was thinking the same thing this could be the west goal post. One camp is totally wrong.

Gfs has some support from the hrrr. Euro needs to give some ground. Watch the euro be even bigger.

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Was thinking the same thing this could be the west goal post. One camp is totally wrong.

Gfs has some support from the hrrr. Euro needs to give some ground. Watch the euro be even bigger.

 

Good to see you analyzing H5. Lets hope you bring your hot hand...2005 style back.

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The big picture says tight thermal gradient/strong baroclinicity (enhanced by snowcover) plus strong PVA equals rapid surface deepening.  That's a powder keg.  But the ingredients don't help if the non-GFS guidance is correct in tainting the baroclinic zone behind the 1st wave thereby preventing a second round of coastal cyclogenesis.

 

Considering the short range disagreement here, if the GFS is picking up on something real, this could evolve right passed what the GFS is currently showing.  Right now I think the good snows will be confined to EMA up into coastal ME. 

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I have to get from MHT to Keene at 930pm tomorrow. Little worried just because these systems can easily become over-performers. All it takes is a little sharper shortwave initially, and things take off on the coast quickly. GFS is definitely the sharpest, because it doesn't have that lead impulse at all, for some reason. NAM uses the lead impulse in a big way, but QPF bias applies.

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6z nam hanging on to lead spoiler impulse... also dryer than 0z nam

we're within 18 hours and gfs on it's own, 2-4" Boston metro looks safe

 

oth... 3z srefs vs. 21z ticked up 0.5" probs to much of EMA

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0z 4km btv wrf has decent snows breaking out e mass around 12-130 (sw-ne) then a heavy period for eastern areas inside 495 (w extent) n to nh border/95 from 3-8:30 pm period.

Drops.5-.7 precip for s shore and bos metro west and metro north.

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the new map from BOX has alot of us in the 4 to 6 range

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php

I buy that over what Bouchard has. I personally am leaning towards a 2-5" with spots of 6-7" N and W of coast (like Essex & Middlesex counties/S. NH/high elevated areas in MA interior like ORH). Cape/Islands C-2". I'm keeping this as basic as possible.

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man what is GFS missing here... once again squelches the lead impulse and allows vortmax behind it to dominate cyclogenesis

would love for it to be correct but I'm cautious... 

at h5 verification: 6z NAM is very close to 9z RAP at 15z Tuesday, 6z GFS looks on its own

 

would toss GFS but 3z SREFs also ticked up, and this is so close to something bigger

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