Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Storm cancel Cantore coming to boston is like Blizz posting an MC Hammer video or Mike Seidel being anywhere. Storm cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Just got a look at the 6z GFS. Each run for the last 5 runs has ticked up .15-.20" qfp. Crazy trend, hard to believe. At this rate the 12z will be close to 1" in much of EMA. Tough call, this kind of reminds me of the Dec 2007(or 2008 can't remember?) bomb, that snuck up on us creating the worste rush hour traffic I've ever seen in the city, took me 7 hours to go 30 miles.12/13/07 was a SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Don't know if it was mentioned...HRRR cut back a bit in western areas. Some of that due to what's fallen already...but it had quite a bit of CT in the 4-6" range...now has 2-3" north with 3-4" south. Pretty much in line with forecasts, but definitely gets rid of the idea of keeping precip hanging around with the secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruinsyear Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 12/13/07 was a SWFE. I should have stated not from a synoptic level. Just the timing of a heavy burst of snow, around the rush hour commute and it was a cold snow, fluff bomb. It was only 8-10" genearlly but it was a monster on traffic, seemed like it surprised everyone. I get the same feeling with this one. You drive in to work in the morning, it's sunny, the forecast is 2-4", not really talking much about PM thump. If it turns out the GFS is right, It's 6-10" around the city and a completely different story at rush hour. That was the similarity I was speaking too. Set up is very much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Fox 25 is so confusing. They show a model that's gives me .9" of snow and then show there forecast that is giving me 3-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 Cantore coming to boston is like Blizz posting an MC Hammer video or Mike Seidel being anywhere. Storm cancel. He should go to ORH...every time he goes there the storm over performs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Wow the radar looks awful back this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 That moisture heading out of del marva now into southern nj does not look like it misses IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Wow the radar looks awful back this way. Yes...but to be fair...the overnight runs of the models did key in on lighter precip in the AM...with the best rates really beginning mid-day into the afternoon. So I'm not all that surprised things are looking a bit broken at the moment. I suspect we'll see a bit of a lull for a bit but then things will come together for a second thump later...especially for the east half of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Wow the radar looks awful back this way. ML dryslot we discussed yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Wow the radar looks awful back this way. For a bad looking radar, we have 1/2 mile visibility, moderate snow, and nice size flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 That moisture heading out of del marva now into southern nj does not look like it misses IMHO.Yeah it's always supposed to have been one burst then s lull then the real stuff comes after 3:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 The 13z RAP has pretty intense snows for central/eastern areas late this afternoon and evening. We'll have to see how it evolves. I'm not convinced yet. The interference at 5H going on is really preventing this thing from being a classic LI mini-nuke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I don't know at much closer look...it looks to me like the GFS may have been too far west with that first lobe of vorticity...as a result it hung the surface low around longer....it looks to me like it does get a little further east, more like last nights Euro...or at least closer to it. The first pulse later today is probably the main deal, whatever lingers tonight....and there could still be some surprise bands may be more limited to eastern and northeastern extremes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 I don't know at much closer look...it looks to me like the GFS may have been too far west with that first lobe of vorticity...as a result it hung the surface low around longer....it looks to me like it does get a little further east, more like last nights Euro...or at least closer to it. The first pulse later today is probably the main deal, whatever lingers tonight....and there could still be some surprise bands may be more limited to eastern and northeastern extremes. Yep, the deeper 2nd shortwave never really had a chance with the front running stuff. One reason why I kept wishing the front running wave to disappear...but that wasn't happening this close in. Should still see some decent bursts later on though as the vortmax currently in PA swings through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Back to Harvey's map...still looks on target with the early returns from radar and 12z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 12z RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 RAP is insistent on a late afternoon and evening nice burst in eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Yep, the deeper 2nd shortwave never really had a chance with the front running stuff. One reason why I kept wishing the front running wave to disappear...but that wasn't happening this close in. Should still see some decent bursts later on though as the vortmax currently in PA swings through. Only way it could have evolved was a slower first system that was much weaker that basically stirred up some moisture but didn't escape. Could still happen. Odd situation for sure. I think Will it's like all of these...GFS is usually overdone but the others come towards it. What we'll have is leftover precip in eastern areas overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Only way it could have evolved was a slower first system that was much weaker that basically stirred up some moisture but didn't escape. Could still happen. Odd situation for sure. I think Will it's like all of these...GFS is usually overdone but the others come towards it. What we'll have is leftover precip in eastern areas overnight. They'll be some leftover precip..probably low level type stuff..but unless the 12z GFS comes in stronger...I think we'll see it tone down from earlier runs. More in line with other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 North shore of LI looks good for a few hours later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 GFS is messy with weird lift and QPF holes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 They'll be some leftover precip..probably low level type stuff..but unless the 12z GFS comes in stronger...I think we'll see it tone down from earlier runs. More in line with other guidance. I wonder how it managed to botch that s/w over successive runs. Even the RGEM did it overnight. In the end...same thing happened that always happens. GFS overdid it. 3-4 runs ago the Euro was basically nothing. GFS had the right idea then but went overboard. In the end like always the GFS adjusts last minute towards the remaining models. NAM did pretty well it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 RAP is insistent on a late afternoon and evening nice burst in eastern areas. This is most of the accum snows it looks like. Hangs around longer in se nh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Yes the gfs is worthless . Consistently has a solution that wont pan out then caves 6 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 I wonder how it managed to botch that s/w over successive runs. Even the RGEM did it overnight. In the end...same thing happened that always happens. GFS overdid it. 3-4 runs ago the Euro was basically nothing. GFS had the right idea then but went overboard. In the end like always the GFS adjusts last minute towards the remaining models. NAM did pretty well it seems. That's not really true. I think it had one run where it only gave about 2" of snow to eastern areas...but its been pretty consistent with this being an advisory type snow...literally going back maybe 6-7 days now. It has sharpened the 2nd shortwave on successive runs but it never waivered from the idea that this system would be primarily a front-running deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 RAP in clown range tries to grab some more moisture from the south in ern areas...but that model past hr 10 can be weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 What the hell is the GFS doing. Sends the energy offshore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 A little tweak to the euro, a little tweak to the GFS. In the end...that is what you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I'm pleased so far today. several decent bursts of moderate snow, lighter lull now. 1.5" down and 2 degrees. I was surprised that we got so cold here today..absolutely decoupled and dropped to -18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.