N. OF PIKE Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Anyone have the soundings for KBED for like 6z or 9z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 18z nam still a snowy run around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 15z plumes have raised snow amount also http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20131206&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=CEF&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=41.984674099176885&mLON=-71.78395562630271&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 According the the Plymouth soundings, the 18Z NAM has the entire column below freezing by 6z at KMMK. That's at least 3 hours sooner than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 im pretty sure this is going to over perform but I guess its wait and see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 NAM and SREF are pretty tasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Anyone have the soundings for KBED for like 6z or 9z Already below freezing at 6z on the 18z NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 18z NAM soundings indicate a pretty healthy event for a lot of the region...we'll have to watch this pretty closely over the next 4-5 hours. The sounding even at 03z are really close to parachutes for places like ORH/FIT/BAF...even on the RAP model too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 You almost wonder now if some follks start as a mix or sleet and go quickly to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 You almost wonder now if some follks start as a mix or sleet and go quickly to snow Almost lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Almost lol Good to see you two on the same page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Already below freezing at 6z on the 18z NAM: 131206201749.gif How do you read this? it looks like the temp is just above freezing? Is 1000mb close to the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 You almost wonder now if some follks start as a mix or sleet and go quickly to snow Maybe far W and NW regions. Still 49F here, so I expect it to start as plain jane rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 How do you read this? it looks like the temp is just above freezing? Is 1000mb close to the ground? There are many who can answer this far better than I can, but I was focusing on the upper air. You're correct that right near the surface (1000mb), it appears to be slightly above freezing. I've found model output for surface temperatures to be hit or miss, so I don't sweat a degree or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Maybe far W and NW regions. Still 49F here, so I expect it to start as plain jane rain. I think outside of the high Berkshires and NW CT 1000+ feet, its going to start as rain...the low levels should start cooling pretty quickly once precip sets in as 925mb temps should be around 2C for places like ORH-BDL by then...that should be enough to get it into the mid to upper 30s...then shortly after we should see the CAA plus pretty big omega-induced cooling take over. The low-level CAA is going on the whole time (even if more of an ooze) which helps expedite the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 fwiw...rpm is ~3-4" in parts of the Berks...generally 2-3" from the pike north. 2" NW hills of CT. 1" across C / N CT...coating a bit south of there. it is "healthy" right into BOS with nearly 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Temps down to 38.8..once precip starts hopefully temps fall quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 There are many who can answer this far better than I can, but I was focusing on the upper air. You're correct that right near the surface (1000mb), it appears to be slightly above freezing. I've found model output for surface temperatures to be hit or miss, so I don't sweat a degree or two. but even 850mb seems to be above freezing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Temps down to 38.8..once precip starts hopefully temps fall quickly What does your surface temp have anything to do with an elevated warm layer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 What does your surface temp have anything to do with an elevated warm layer? I'm not sure what you're talking about. Once the column cools..that means the column cools..so you go to sleet then snow..The colder the surface is..the quicker it sticks..just timing the change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Good luck in SNE. Up here in Plymouth NH looks like an inch at best with the S trend. Trends look great for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 BOX expanded WWA south as some were mentioning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 41.2F here. It is cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 first of the year!! CTZ002-003-MAZ005-011-012-070500-/O.EXA.KBOX.WW.Y.0014.131206T2300Z-131207T1100Z/HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...VERNON...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER350 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6AM EST SATURDAY.* LOCATIONS...NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT INTO CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS.THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES AND TOWNS OF HARTFORD...WINDSORLOCKS...UNION...VERNON...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD AND WORCESTER.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...ALONG WITHAROUND A TRACE OF ICE.* UNCERTAINTY...IF THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS DELAYED BY A FEWHOURS LESS SNOWFALL WOULD OCCUR. CONVERSELY ONCE THE CHANGEOVERCOMMENCES A BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW IS POSSIBLE AND WOULD RESULTIN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.* TIMING...RAIN WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SLEET THEN SNOW BETWEEN 10PM AND 1 AM. BRIEF HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS DRIVINGCONDITIONS TONIGHT.* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH.* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.* TEMPERATURES...DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30S.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SNOW AND/OR ICE ISFORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AFFECTED AREAS...BUT ACCUMULATIONS AREEXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ANY SNOW OR ICE WOULD MAKE DRIVING ANDWALKING DIFFICULT...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE...ON UNTREATED ROADWAYSAND SIDEWALKS. WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING...MOTORISTSNEED TO BE ESPECIALLY CAREFUL ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WHERESLIPPERY SPOTS CAN EASILY DEVELOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Comparing 21z ob at BDL to 21z predicted ob by the 12z NAM using coolwx.com, the 44F is spot on by the model but the dewpoint is already at 0C, but the 12z NAM has it at 2C at 21z. Interesting that the dew is much lower compared to the model giving us the most snow. And to add to this, the 12z NAM has the dew rising from 2C to 3C by 0z at BDL tonight, but since it's already off by 2C, I would bet that will bust too high as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Started as light sleet here with temp of 39F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 but even 850mb seems to be above freezing... If my understanding is correct, the temperature isotherms tilt to the right as you go up the chart. I've reattached the original sounding with the 0 degree isotherm highlighted in blue. Anything to the left of the 0 degree line is modeled to be below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Dew is 32 at BDL..Again..I'll make a note that to me that is interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The majority of SREF members bring the heaviest lift right through and just NW of the I-84 - I-90 corridor. I think the snowfall winners in this will be where the moderate+ band sets up, not necessarily further north where the column is subzero throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Dew is 32 at BDL..Again..I'll make a note that to me that is interesting Dew is 22 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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