Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion

[tnweathernut]

pcbjr - "Not without some sort of block on the east and a big west ridge...."

 

Disagree, the map I posted show all kinds of blocking over the top, including the Atlantic side of things.  That cold airmass really has nowhere to go, but would spread out as it would be arctic in nature.  I mean crap.................the polar vortex is in Duluth, MN!  To me, it screams ice potential at some point.

[pcbjr]

pcbjr - "Not without some sort of block on the east and a big west ridge...."

 

Disagree, the map I posted show all kinds of blocking over the top, including the Atlantic side of things.  That cold airmass really has nowhere to go, but would spread out as it would be arctic in nature.  I mean crap.................the polar vortex is in Duluth, MN!  To me, it screams ice potential at some point.

 

I'm not disagreeing.

 

Just thinking ..... I'm pretty far south and when we get winter (and I mean real winter for 4 - 6 weeks), it's not an ooze - it's block and ....

 

Let's keep the good time rolling!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[tnweathernut]

well I suppose the SE ridge could flex it's muscle and it would put most of the SE in the warm sector while holding arctic air just to our north and west, but I agree with you about Florida.  This type of a pattern probably isn't going to cut it for you guys.

[Stovepipe]

And DT says:

 

BaAxYFQCMAAxQbb.png

 

There is a joke to be made about that map, but this thread isn't the proper place for it.  I'll leave it at that.

[pcbjr]

There is a joke to be made about that map, but this thread isn't the proper place for it.  I'll leave it at that.

 

Just trying to add info and others' perspectives.

 

Hopefully to get a non-editorial, substantive response.

 

It is what it is ....

[BIG FROSTY]

We'll probably be normal to slightly above for most of December! Then the cold comes SE hopefully around Christmas?

[griteater]

Hmm I was actually impressed with that Euro Ensemble image that was posted. Looks like that would roll east as mentioned. GEFS has been farther west, but Euro may have right idea.

[franklin NCwx]

Too much discussion about the long range euro op. Still the same as yesterday on the ensembles, trough drops into the west initially we warm up to normal then it slowly bleeds east in about ten days.

[BullCityWx]

We hardly ever get cold with a bleeding cold situation.

[SnowNiner]

We hardly ever get cold with a bleeding cold situation.

 

It doesn't jump out at me as a situation that benefits the southeast either.  Not to say it doesn't happen, I just don't remember it being a benefical set up.  If we're not in the trough I don't understand how we get really cold air.  Perhaps the thought is a conus wide trough?  I don't know. 

 

Robert seems to really be emphasizing the cross polar flow look on GFS/EURO so I guess that's good.  But yeah, I don't understand the "bleedin" cold. 

[tarheelwx]

I'm guessing its extremely dense and has to spread out. Not ideal for the southeast but not bad. Seems ripe for ice.

TW

[Cold Rain]

Yeah, I'm not a big fan of the bleeding eastward-type cold.  Usually modifies if/when it makes it across the mountains and into the SE, especially if there's no strong high pressure to really help build it in.

 

Looking at the teleconnections this morning, There continues to be good consensus that the AO will rise to about +3 and then sharply fall.  After that, there is much more spread, with more members than not taking it negative.  The NAO looks to bounce back and forth on either side of neutral, while the PNA goes on a scuba diving expedtition.

 

The CFS shows a very cold Canada through the month of December with a gradient-type pattern across the US -- generally mild south and cold north.  It hints at a SE ridge and generally keeps our area drier than normal.  Weeks 1-2 show normal to slightly above normal temps and above normal precip, while week 3 shows below normal temps and below normal precip, with week 4 showing much above normal temps and below normal precip in the SE.  Again, it seems to hint at a SE ridge.  With exceeding futility, the models have consistently tried to build a SE ridge.  Thus, I remain skeptical of it coming to fruition.

 

The OP GFS (bottom) and OP Euro (top) look a bit different at 240hrs (below).  The Euro is fairly consistent with its 240hr 12z run from yesterday, with the PV a bit farther east.  The longer range GFS continues to shows the a rather broad trough dawdling eastward through the period, with even a couple of wintery weather threats for the upper SE.

 

Overall, the pattern, at least in the Operational models looks much better to me, long-term, than it did yesterday.  No torches, with bouts of cold throughout.

[Cold Rain]

By the way, the 240hr Euro is a very cold look for parts of the US.  You can see in the upper left panel of the image I posted above ridging/blocking building in over the top of the PV.  If that turns out to be real and of a non-transient nature, then much of the nation, probably eventually including the SE should be quite cold.

 

Edit:  Here's the Euro panel with some fancy artwork (and we still have an active STJ with a splt flow...not a bad look at all):

[buckeyefan1]

Yeah, I'm not a big fan of the bleeding eastward-type cold.  Usually modifies if/when it makes it across the mountains and into the SE, especially if there's no strong high pressure to really help build it in.

 

Looking at the teleconnections this morning, There continues to be good consensus that the AO will rise to about +3 and then sharply fall.  After that, there is much more spread, with more members than not taking it negative.  The NAO looks to bounce back and forth on either side of neutral, while the PNA goes on a scuba diving expedtition.

 

The CFS shows a very cold Canada through the month of December with a gradient-type pattern across the US -- generally mild south and cold north.  It hints at a SE ridge and generally keeps our area drier than normal.  Weeks 1-2 show normal to slightly above normal temps and above normal precip, while week 3 shows below normal temps and below normal precip, with week 4 showing much above normal temps and below normal precip in the SE.  Again, it seems to hint at a SE ridge.  With exceeding futility, the models have consistently tried to build a SE ridge.  Thus, I remain skeptical of it coming to fruition.

 

The OP GFS (bottom) and OP Euro (top) look a bit different at 240hrs (below).  The Euro is fairly consistent with its 240hr 12z run from yesterday, with the PV a bit farther east.  The longer range GFS continues to shows the a rather broad trough dawdling eastward through the period, with even a couple of wintery weather threats for the upper SE.

 

Overall, the pattern, at least in the Operational models looks much better to me, long-term, than it did yesterday.  No torches, with bouts of cold throughout.

It's been this way all year, why should it change now?  Winter (here) last year was close to normal and even with a crappy pacific, we managed to squeeze out a flizzard. I'll take my chances with the possibilities being shown this winter. At least the players have shown themselves this year and we've even had bonus flurries.  

 

By the way, the 240hr Euro is a very cold look for parts of the US.  You can see in the upper left panel of the image I posted above ridging/blocking building in over the top of the PV.  If that turns out to be real and of a non-transient nature, then much of the nation, probably eventually including the SE should be quite cold.

 

Edit:  Here's the Euro panel with some fancy artwork (and we still have an active STJ with a splt flow...not a bad look at all):

[tnweathernut]

Cold Rain, you are right...... "not a bad look at all".  I have been saying this for a couple of days now.  It has the look of some classic and extreme cold coming into the northern part of the US and with all that blocking over the top (not technically so much in Greenland, but Baffin blocking is ideal for the southeast) it has no place to go but get "squished" south and east.  Combine that with southern impulses and a southwest flow aloft and you have a recipe for trouble in the upper south and even parts of the southeast.  I just hope the Euro is heading in the right direction.  If it is, December will turn out to be quite cold after a pretty normal start.

[Shawn]

Some of the other sections and main discussions imply we may be getting a SE ridge and could end up being the warmest in the country when all is said and done.  Long range forecasting isn't my forte, but many do know what they're speaking about over there.

 

From what I see; the first week-week 1/2 could be warmer for us and pretty boring and then maybe we can get things to shift more to our favor around the middle or end of the month.  There is a little blip showing up for December 1st (Saturday night) that could possibly surprise some people with moisture in a shallow colder air mass for a potential ZR deal, but I'm less than optimistic about anything even coming from that.

 

Wen this current event is over we can get some more attention to this thread.

[Brick Tamland]

The long range forecasts change day to day. They have enough problems getting things right more than a week out.

[tnweathernut]

Some of the other sections and main discussions imply we may be getting a SE ridge and could end up being the warmest in the country when all is said and done.  Long range forecasting isn't my forte, but many do know what they're speaking about over there.

 

From what I see; the first week-week 1/2 could be warmer for us and pretty boring and then maybe we can get things to shift more to our favor around the middle or end of the month.  There is a little blip showing up for December 1st (Saturday night) that could possibly surprise some people with moisture in a shallow colder air mass for a potential ZR deal, but I'm less than optimistic about anything even coming from that.

 

Wen this current event is over we can get some more attention to this thread.

Agree, there are some pretty smart people on this board and on paid sites too. As far as the SE ridge,  I am simply going by the following phrase....... "what has been forecast and failed to this point will continue to fail, until proven otherwise".  That forecast SE ridge has been showing for weeks and never seems to materialize.  Hope it continues.

[SnowNiner]

The long range forecasts change day to day. They have enough problems getting things right more than a week out.

 

I don't know, I think within 10 days you can get an idea of what general pattern is coming; if there is agreement. 

 

If I had to guess, I'd say we're going to be normal in December.  Not in the trough and depending on bleedin cold (like bleedin love...) we probably end up normal.  Maybe cool, but not cold enough for snow.  Looks like the middle of the country is going to be in the icebox, but I'm not sure how much gets down past the mountains to us.  Probably a great pattern for the high country though. 

 

My hope is that eventually the trough shifts east, gets to us, and we have a nice +PNA where we can benefit from the PV being so close.  That's down the road though.....and frankly usually what's best doesn't happen.  So normal it is until I see evidence otherwise, IMO.

[GaWx]

Don't look now, but 12Z GFS is colder in the long range, at least in central US to start.

[mackerel_sky]

Don't look now, but 12Z GFS is colder in the long range, at least in central US to start.

. I think that is the problem. It's looking frigid in the plains, and I think that keeps us around normal. That looks like the set up where Dallas and Memphis can be in the 20s and snow and ice events, while we stay at 50-60s for a week or so, waiting on the cold to bleed down here

[Shawn]

Don't look now, but 12Z GFS is colder in the long range, at least in central US to start.

 

Just generated this map to check it out for mby.   Chance of verifying at all? 3%... although Dec 7th-8th period has shown a storm a good bit.

Btw Buckeye, this would be pretty much your location too.

 

Edit: this is the 12z, I need to add model date/run times to the title.

 

[Cold Rain]

I see your 12Z GFS cold and raise you the 12Z European warm.  My, what a difference 12 hours makes.  U-G-L-Y.  At least the coldest air in the NH is in Canada.

 

 

[tnweathernut]

I see your 12Z GFS cold and raise you the 12Z European warm.  My, what a difference 12 hours makes.  U-G-L-Y.  At least the coldest air in the NH is in Canada.

I think if you extrapolate that out a few days it would show fun and games in the southeast.  I think it's a given that we are going to warm up, but those warm ups have been largely muted as we get closer and closer to verification time.  It's what happens after the arctic cold comes into the west and begins to spread out that has my attention.  If it gets trapped under major blocking over the top things would get very interesting in mid December for some on our board.

[Cold Rain]

I think if you extrapolate that out a few days it would show fun and games in the southeast. I think it's a given that we are going to warm up, but those warm ups have been largely muted as we get closer and closer to verification time. It's what happens after the arctic cold comes into the west and begins to spread out that has my attention. If it gets trapped under major blocking over the top things would get very interesting in mid December for some on our board.

I dunno... At 216, it seems to be going just like the 0z and then at 240, part of the PV in the Plains (if it realy is a PV) phases with a big PV dropping out of the arctic and part of it drops into the SW. Extrapolating out, we probably get a PV in central Canada, a western trough and a SE ridge. There's no blocking whatsoever.

But, like you said, warm-ups have been muted as we close in. And this 240 hour Euro is no more likely to verify than the last one. We need to get that blocking to be real at some point, though.

[tnweathernut]

DT on Facebook

 

** AFTER Arctic front comes thru DEC 7-8 MAJOR THREAT of SERIOUS snow /ICE event for TN valley & Middle Atlantic DEC 9-10-11 **

I don't know that I would make a statement this bold, this far out.................but this airmass would probably outdo guidance on it's trek south and east if it materializes as shown.  In a perfect scenario, we would get it to spill east of the mountains and lock in with a high pressure somewhere in the northeast ahead of any impulse or overrunning event..

[Cold Rain]

DT on Facebook

** AFTER Arctic front comes thru DEC 7-8 MAJOR THREAT of SERIOUS snow /ICE event for TN valley & Middle Atlantic DEC 9-10-11 **

I don't know that I would make a statement this bold, this far out.................but this airmass would probably outdo guidance on it's trek south and east if it materializes as shown. In a perfect scenario, we would get it to spill east of the mountains and lock in with a high pressure somewhere in the northeast ahead of any impulse or overrunning event..

I think when it's all said and done, December will provide several wintry threats for portions of the area. HM has some good thoughts in the Mid Atlantic December pattern thread.

[tnweathernut]

I dunno... At 216, it seems to be going just like the 0z and then at 240, part of the PV in the Plains (if it realy is a PV) phases with a big PV dropping out of the arctic and part of it drops into the SW. Extrapolating out, we probably get a PV in central Canada, a western trough and a SE ridge. There's no blocking whatsoever.

But, like you said, warm-ups have been muted as we close in. And this 240 hour Euro is no more likely to verify than the last one. We need to get that blocking to be real at some point, though.

I don't think you are going to get a perfect look each model run, but there is a lot of higher pressures over the top of arctic air coming south (albeit west and central first) throughout that run.  It begins to pull a -NAO, but pushes the ridging east and mutes the blocking that was building around Baffin Island never allowing it to link up with blocking in the Pacific/Alaska and points east and look like yesterday's magical run of the Euro. 

 

I think the general look of blocking over the top of an arctic airmass descending to NA is real, and the Pacific continues to look like it will help us this year.  I am confident of an opportunity or two in December. JMO

 

HM is on board (or becoming more optimistic) for Mid-Atlantic fun from Dec 10-25th.  In mid December, we'd have a pretty good shot here too, as long as the SE ridge doesn't flex.

[GaWx]

I dunno... At 216, it seems to be going just like the 0z and then at 240, part of the PV in the Plains (if it realy is a PV) phases with a big PV dropping out of the arctic and part of it drops into the SW. Extrapolating out, we probably get a PV in central Canada, a western trough and a SE ridge. There's no blocking whatsoever.

But, like you said, warm-ups have been muted as we close in. And this 240 hour Euro is no more likely to verify than the last one. We need to get that blocking to be real at some point, though.

 

 

  Actually, I think that both the 12Z GFS and the 12Z Euro look a good bit more favorable for cold in the SE and much of the E US sometimes within the 11-15 day period  vs. the 0Z runs and earlier runs. Extrapolating further the 12Z Euro threatens to bring down bigtime cold as tnweathernut implied. Note the changes in Canada between days 8 and 10 as well as the change vs. the 0Z Euro. Imo, this is the most favorable run of the Euro in a number of days. I'd definitely take these 12Z runs. The bigger Q, of course, is what will actually verify.

[tnweathernut]

I think when it's all said and done, December will provide several wintry threats for portions of the area. HM has some good thoughts in the Mid Atlantic December pattern thread.

My biggest fear is actually that the cold gets trapped in NA and eventually scours out and the Pacific stops helping (even if just for a couple of weeks) it would allow the pattern to snap to a really warm southern tier (maybe countrywide) b/c of the terrible Atlantic, and then we wait for the rest of the winter for cold that never really makes a comeback.