OKpowdah Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 When the technique fails ... lol. It's classifying the scene as uniform CDO region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Wow I haven't seen a structure like that in ever!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 If we had recon in there I'm confident this would be as strong or stronger than Tip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Wow I haven't seen a structure like that in ever!! From IR satellite, I think it might still be strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jordanwx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Where is JTWC getting 895mb from?! Ridiculous. This is easily a sub-880mb storm. Haiyan is in that top echelon of storms. 31W HAIYAN 131107 1800 10.6N 127.0E WPAC 170 895 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 From IR satellite, I think it might still be strengthening. The CDO seems to be growing... wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I need to correct my earlier statement as I did intend to say Cat 5 (being that begins once you get over 155 mph). Anyway I am still not seeing signs of degeneration as this approaches. I sure wish we had recon out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Bohol and Cebu should be on the weaker Southern side, but I've been reading they have been evacuating people in tent cities from the October 15 earthquake into any shelter they can find, and some of the shelters like the Catholic church here holding 137 families, I'd be nervous even on the weaker side of a Super-Typhoon with what appears to have a large eyewall. Below- Sto. Niño is the oldest Catholic parish in the Philippines. The current church building isn't that old, dating to 1740 (still older than the United States), but the Basílica Menor del Santo Niño de Cebú experienced partial collapse during the quake. YouTube of collapse below. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Lnxq1xS2dmU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Not sure if this has been posted, but this guy is riding out the storm in Tacloban... https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 https://www.facebook.com/iCyclone So are these guys. They are all nuts! With that being said, I have to admit I am jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Just based on shoreline geometry, I would imagine there is going to be one hell of a storm surge in Tacloban. Not sure if this has been posted, but this guy is riding out the storm in Tacloban... https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 https://www.facebook.com/iCyclone So are these guys. They are all nuts! With that being said, I have to admit I am jealous. nuts is a kind word. masochistic is what i would describe them as. hope they make it through in one piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 nuts is a kind word. masochistic is what i would describe them as. hope they make it through in one piece. If they survive I'd like to see what pressure readings they get. Remember, Tip was extrapolated if I'm not mistaken. As to the pressure of this storm, that's all relative to the pressure around it. However, it could probably be extrapolated due to the known wind speeds. It's entirely possible that this could have a pressure lower than Tip, or a pressure of 900mb. Had Andrew attained this strength, it could have been above 900mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Just based on shoreline geometry, I would imagine there is going to be one hell of a storm surge in Tacloban. The FB guys extremewx52 pointed out started out at a hotel on the beach east of Palo... look at the wedge-shaped shoreline... good thing they moved north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 i do hope they submit all their readings to PAGASA once this is all said and done.. i'm sure any measurements they get will be helpful in post-storm analysis... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I've never seen a hurricane with such a perfect circular form and a massive core at the same time. This is going down in the history books. The power of this is out of this world. It's like all of the N. Atlantic's power shifted to the W Pacific this year. They've gotten several powerful storms, this one being the most powerful. We've gotten nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I certainly fear for the safety of thousands of people in harm's way there, while not the most heavily populated portion of the country, would estimate around a million souls between 50 miles south and 100 miles north of the projected track of the eye (which I take to be south Samar to central Panay). As noted, damage potential extends further to north than to south which is a good thing for Cebu and Negros but this is such an intense storm that, like Katrina, storm surge issues could be considerable a long way from the track. From the sounds of the facebook discussion that was linked, I got the impression that public awareness in that part of the country may be much lower than further north where intense typhoons hit more often. Consequently, have posted a general warning of what might be expected in that particular region and hope that those who are only relying on facebook or power of prayer might at least have the basic info that might cause them to seek adequate shelter. Anybody in a third world type village facing the sea at this point would need a major miracle to survive. No way would I wish to be watching this come ashore from eastern Samar, there is bound to be a storm surge of at least 20 if not 30 feet high there. Not too sure how the storm surge issue plays out within the complex of islands but assume it would be partly mitigated, however, this thing is moving at a very steady pace and won't weaken much if at all over this 50-50 land-sea environment, would predict it might lose 10-15 mb and maybe 20-30 knots but still an upper end cat-4 or lower end cat-5 by time it reaches northern Palawan and returns to open South China Sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jordanwx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Just as I thought this beast was weakening, she posts her warmest eye reading yet at nearly 22C. Average CDO temperature has warmed half a degree, however. 2013NOV07 185700 8.0 862.1 +4.1 170.0 7.9 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF 21.82 -84.55 EYE This storm is certainly deeper than 895mb. Probably in top 5 tropical cyclones in terms of lowest pressure ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Just as I thought this beast was weakening, she posts her warmest eye reading yet at nearly 22C. Average CDO temperature has warmed half a degree, however. 2013NOV07 185700 8.0 862.1 +4.1 170.0 7.9 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF 21.82 -84.55 EYE This storm is certainly deeper than 895mb. Probably in top 5 tropical cyclones in terms of lowest pressure ever. It really is a shame we are not dropping dropsondes in this beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2572&cm_ven=fb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jordanwx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 It really is a shame we are not dropping dropsondes in this beast Yes. Seeing this storm without having any way to actually measure the winds and pressure is like torture. Really with we had recon over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 96 mph sustained winds in Guiuan last hour. http://www.wunderground.com/history/station/98558/2013/11/8/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA&MR=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Judging by the nighttime visible and other images, there look to be exceptionally high cloud tops just east of the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 JTWC Adv. 19: 170 knots (196 mph) gusts to 205 knots (236 mph). That is up 5 knots from the previous advisory! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 96 mph sustained winds in Guiuan last hour. http://www.wunderground.com/history/station/98558/2013/11/8/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA&MR=1 If we were really lucky, we'd get one more report out of there. The next report would be in the eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Judging by the nighttime visible and other images, there look to be exceptionally high cloud tops just east of the eye. What blows my mind is that the "Dvorak" BD IR processing on the SSD floater is basically maxed out for the entire CDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 If we were really lucky, we'd get one more report out of there. The next report would be in the eyewall. it's only at 977mb; shouldn't we be seeing lower pressures than that by this point?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 it's only at 977mb; shouldn't we be seeing lower pressures than that by this point?? The wind field is extremely tight. This tells me that with how low the pressure is, the winds are probably extraoridinarily strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 it's only at 977mb; shouldn't we be seeing lower pressures than that by this point?? No. Wind speeds are dictated by the pressure gradient. The larger the pressure gradient, the higher the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 New hi-res shot tweeted from NOAA from the Suomi NPP satellite: http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail2.php?MediaID=1453&MediaTypeID=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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