Super Typhoon Haiyan (split from WPac thread)

[IsentropicLift]

What's the lowest air pressure ever recorded on earth? This has to be close now.

[extremewx52]

What's the lowest air pressure ever recorded on earth? This has to be close now.

 

Typhoon Tip has the record at 870 mb in 1979. This was measured by a reconnaissance aircraft. 

 

All the numbers we have seen lower than this so far are all estimations. It will be interesting to see if there is a recorded pressure though.  

[Superstorm93]

F. T8.0/8.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS 
AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT OF 
7.5. MET YIELDS 8.0. PT YIELDS 6.5. DBO MET.

[icebreaker5221]

JTWC going with 170 kts (195 mph) sustained, which I believe is the highest ever.  Tip was 190 mph for reference.  MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR18//RMKS/1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.   SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 543 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS STY 31W HAS MAINTAINED A SHARPLY DEFINED EYE WITH MULTIPLE CONCENTRIC RINGS AND A DEEP CONVECTIVE EYEWALL. A 071100Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A STRONG FEEDER BAND WRAPPING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS A DARK RING OF DEEP CONVECTION OUTLINING THE COLD CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE EYEWALL.THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES INDICATING AN INTENSITY NEAR 170 KNOTS. SEASURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ALONG THE TRACK REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE PROVIDING AMPLE SURFACE HEATING, SUPPORTING THE SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. STY 31W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH IS ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.3. FORECAST REASONING.   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THEPREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.   B. STY 31W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR, SHIFTING TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BYTAU 48. DUE TO THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND RECENT INTENSIFICATION, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LANDFALL WITH THE PHILIPPINES IS ANTICIPATED NEAR TAU 12 AND WILL START TO IMPACT THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW, LEADING TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 72. STY 31W WILLTRACK INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) WHERE SSTS BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE,AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE SURFACE HEAT POTENTIAL WILL NOT SUPPORT THE STRONGER SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITIES.   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY 31W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU72 AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER LAND, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A MORE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED TAUS AND ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE A RECURVE SCENARIO AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM AND INTO SOUTHERN CHINA; THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//NNNN

[Superstorm93]

[patrick05]

I just looked up the highest gust on earth which was 254 mph and was measured during TC Olivia in 1996.

That storm had 1 min sustained wind of 145 mph. With sustained winds of 190 mph it would not be surprising if Haiyan can break that record. 

 

The biggest issue will be whether there are observations in the most intense part of the storm, and if the equipment can remain intact and working through the storm. 

 

PAGASA has a synoptic weather station complete with a working radar in the town of Guiuan in the southern tip of Samar.. this is about as close as you can get to the eye i assume so they'll definitely have the strongest winds and minimum pressure readings; hopefully they'll release it to the public after the fact... they have actually posted a radar image from Guiuan showing the eye beginning to be picked up.. just google search DOST PAGASA FACEBOOK and the top result will be that one... i can't access FB at work so i can't give the image here...

[Superstorm93]

STY Megi @ 160 knots and STY Haiyan @ 165 knots

 

Courtesy of Dr. Ryan Maue 

 

[TheBudMan]

is Josh on a plane to Manilla ?????

[hawkeye_wx]

Wow, that's as strong as you'll ever see the eyewall.  With only 4-6 hours until landfall there is still no sign of any robust outer band that might trigger an ERC.

[extremewx52]

PAGASA has a synoptic weather station complete with a working radar in the town of Guiuan in the southern tip of Samar.. this is about as close as you can get to the eye i assume so they'll definitely have the strongest winds and minimum pressure readings; hopefully they'll release it to the public after the fact... they have actually posted a radar image from Guiuan showing the eye beginning to be picked up.. just google search DOST PAGASA FACEBOOK and the top result will be that one... i can't access FB at work so i can't give the image here...

 

Great find. That station should get rocked! I saw the radar image they posted and I am searching for real time radar data from that site. 

[extremewx52]

 Here is the latest radar image they posted 5 minutes ago. 

 

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=474653972644517&set=a.302759263167323.64041.302746419835274&type=1&theater

 

[wxmeddler]

Just a tiny bit of an outer eyewall there..

[hawkeye_wx]

Thanks a lot for theses images and links.  I sure as heck don't want to miss any of this.  It's really something that we could get data from a weather station at the exact location of initial landfall of one of the strongest cyclones ever, at/near peak intensity.

[Superstorm93]

Landfall radar links here

[jburns]

Thanks a lot for theses images and links.  I sure as heck don't want to miss any of this.  It's really something that we could get data from a weather station at the exact location of initial landfall of one of the strongest cyclones ever, at/near peak intensity.

 

If the instruments survive.  No given, for sure.

[MN Transplant]

Per a couple of news stories from early this year, the radar in Guiuan is brand new.  Actually has a solid state transmitter, which is advanced technology.  Now, having the structure stand up to super-typhoon winds is another story.

[Superstorm93]

Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.4  

Trying to find the root link, but the numbers are over 8.0 nonetheless 

 

 

[Wmsptwx]

Non-traditional ADT from CIMSS...

Trying to find the root link, but the numbers are over 8.0 nonetheless

31WP-Ex.GIF

Good lord.

[1900hurricane]

Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.4  

Trying to find the root link, but the numbers are over 8.0 nonetheless 

 

31WP-Ex.GIF

 

 

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt31W-Ex.html

[hawkeye_wx]

The eyewall has been remarkably stable for the last 12-24 hours(see mimic loop).  All of this storm's energy is being focused in the one band of convection with no serious attempts to form any competing outer bands.

 

Anyone know how often we get a new MIMIC update?  The last was 12:45z.

[wendy]

Re: the Dvorak numbers -

 

REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS
BASED ON A 19C EYE THAT IS MORE CIRCULAR AND EMBEDDED IN CDG BY AT
LEAST 1 DEGREE. THIS RESULTS IN A MET THAT IS 8.0. WMG EYE IS EMBEDDED
IN CDG WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF 7.5 AFTER 1.0 IS ADDED AS AN EYE
ADJUSTMENT. THERE IS A VERY COLD BANDING FEATURE IN ADVANCE OF THE
CENTRAL FEATURE BUT THE WARM EDGE BETWEEN THE TWO IS TECHNICALLY TOO
COLD TO ADD FOR BF. DT IS DISCOUNTED BECAUSE DVORAK TECHNIQUE MAKES
NO ALLOWANCE FOR AN EYE EMBEDDED SO DEEPLY IN CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS
CDG. FURTHERMORE ADT V8.1.4 CURRENT INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN 8.0 SINCE
1230Z. FT IS BASED ON MET FOR THESE REASONS.

 

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2013/bulletins/wpac/20131107143031W.html

[QVectorman]

CIMSS_Satellite: Mesoscale vorticity swirls seen in the eye of Super Typhoon Haiyan before sunset

[Jim Marusak]

big question here. could we see a 200+ mph sustained wind with this thing on landfall?

 

reason why I ask, yes at the moment estimated sustained winds are 165-170kts (~190-196mph/306-315kph) with gusts to 202kts (230mph/370kph) gusts to according to estimates.But I am seeing from a graphic from The Weather network of a forward speed of 41km/hr (22kt/25mph).

 

if I am doing my math right, those on the northern eye wall, if the estimates are close to reality, would theoretically see a sustained wind of 187-192kts (215-221mph/347-356kph) with a freak gust to 224kts (258mph/415kph). can anything we have ever built keep standing to a sustained wind for that high, even for 20-30 minutes, given that forward speed?

[1900hurricane]

Just a tiny bit of an outer eyewall there..

Maybe a proto-outer eyewall developing, but it doesn't look like it's gong to develop fast enough to really do much in my opinion.

[Wmsptwx]

big question here. could we see a 200+ mph sustained wind with this thing on landfall?

reason why I ask, yes at the moment estimated sustained winds are 165-170kts (~190-196mph/306-315kph) with gusts to 202kts (230mph/370kph) gusts to according to estimates.But I am seeing from a graphic from The Weather network of a forward speed of 41km/hr (22kt/25mph).

if I am doing my math right, those on the northern eye wall, if the estimates are close to reality, would theoretically see a sustained wind of 187-192kts (215-221mph/347-356kph) with a freak gust to 224kts (258mph/415kph). can anything we have ever built keep standing to a sustained wind for that high, even for 20-30 minutes, given that forward speed?

I think the answer is no, unfortunately this thing means business. Really hoping it weakens a bit at this point at least down to a 140 mph cyclone.

[patrick05]

the highest gust recorded by PAGASA was 320kph at Virac from Typhoon Durian (Reming) 2006... it's def. likely it'll be broken this time around with Guiuan Station being very close to the path... Megi and Bopha made landfall in areas where there are no very close PAGASA stations...

[Jim Marusak]

I think the answer is no, unfortunately this thing means business. Really hoping it weakens a bit at this point at least down to a 140 mph cyclone.

i sure as heck hope this weakens. if it doesn't i am not sure i want to see any damage pics as i'm not sure i could stomach the devastation.

[Wmsptwx]

i sure as heck hope this weakens. if it doesn't i am not sure i want to see any damage pics as i'm not sure i could stomach the devastation.

I agree Jim, if this thing stays as is the results would be catastrophic. All we can do is hope for the best.

[Typhoon Tip]

It is pretty much on par with Typhoon Tip (Sustained winds are the same essentially but of course different physical size)

 

I'm curious how these systems are compared...  Here is a Wiki reference that provided a table of lowest W. Pac pressure

 

Typhoon Season Pressure hPa inHg

Tip 1979 870 25.7

June 1975 876 25.9

Nora 1973 877 25.9

Ida 1958 877 25.9

Kit 1966 880 26.0

Rita 1978 880 26.0

Vanessa 1984 880 26.0

Irma 1971 884 26.1

Nina 1953 885 26.1

Joan 1959 885 26.1

Forrest 1983 885 26.1

Megi 2010 885 26.1

 

The other aspect is SIE (storm integrate energy).  Tip and other storms of lore were much larger in their circulation, such they came along with superior mechanical power.  The problem is, if storm with 900mb pressure in it's core is trundling along in higher than normal, surrounding ambient pressure, it's wind max would be higher.   I am not sure if wind alone is an appropriate measure.  But I am less than certain how Japan and/or the NHC measures...

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

As crazy as it is to say...that is the most beautiful, perfect tropical cyclone I have ever seen.  God help those in its path.