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Second Half of October Wx Discussion?

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Maybe 50 miles or so. Models aren't always great with these bands that blossom from SW-NE in response to mid level fronto, but it is progressive and just a wee bit too warm I think. If the GFS was right, I'd be somewhat more interested in the higher terrain...but it could be too far west. Potent s/w but the euro is south of the GFS for now.

 

The end of the 12z euro today is pretty ugly, looks like the U.S. is flooded with mild Pacific air. Hopefully thats wrong. It does have a big winter storm early next week for the upper mid-west

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The end of the 12z euro today is pretty ugly, looks like the U.S. is flooded with mild Pacific air. Hopefully thats wrong. It does have a big winter storm early next week for the upper mid-west

 

It gets all screwy and cutoffs. Good luck resolving that...that's not going to be easy to figure out. In the meantime, heck of a cool shot into New England Monday night.

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The end of the 12z euro today is pretty ugly, looks like the U.S. is flooded with mild Pacific air. Hopefully thats wrong. It does have a big winter storm early next week for the upper mid-west

It gets all screwy and cutoffs. Good luck resolving that...that's not going to be easy to figure out. In the meantime, heck of a cool shot into New England Monday night.

I'll be home! Last night descending just before midnight west coast time temperature at 850 feet was 68F down to the 40s lowest levels. Fog and I don't know hep we landed as vis seemed <1/4.

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I'll be home! Last night descending just before midnight west coast time temperature at 850 feet was 68F down to the 40s lowest levels. Fog and I don't know hep we landed as vis seemed <1/4.

 

ILS FTW.  Also, your pilot must have some hours under his belt.

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D7 Euro reminds me of two things:    

 

...the first being a symbolic prelude to an ice storm.  You have flow bifurcation over the Rockies, with the southern component meandering trough the 4 corners region and eventually becoming confluent as it rejoins with the northern branch around the GL regions... A large sprawling +PP polar anomaly and rather impressive cold wedge for so early in the year marks the landscape from the NP -- NE axis.   Below which, cyclonic curvature is developing around TX, and would extrapolate into overrunning said polar dome.   Very December look to that.    

 

The second is ... that is a class post -EPO cold dump there.  It's one thing to develop a big polar high, but to do so with cold loading is impressive there. 

 

Does it all verify ... prolly not, but that's an intriguing set up nonetheless.

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D7 Euro reminds me of two things:    

 

...the first being a symbolic prelude to an ice storm.  You have flow bifurcation over the Rockies, with the southern component meandering trough the 4 corners region and eventually becoming confluent as it rejoins with the northern branch around the GL regions... A large sprawling +PP polar anomaly and rather impressive cold wedge for so early in the year marks the landscape from the NP -- NE axis.   Below which, cyclonic curvature is developing around TX, and would extrapolate into overrunning said polar dome.   Very December look to that.    

 

The second is ... that is a class post -EPO cold dump there.  It's one thing to develop a big polar high, but to do so with cold loading is impressive there. 

 

Does it all verify ... prolly not, but that's an intriguing set up nonetheless.

 

Rare but not unprecedented for New England. At the time the November 1921 ice storm was the worst in central New England history.

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Rare but not unprecedented for New England. At the time the November 1921 ice storm was the worst in central New England history.

  11/16/02 is another one that happened early.

 

I don't recall one happening in late October though unless its like 2000 feet in the Catskills or something.

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  11/16/02 is another one that happened early.

 

I don't recall one happening in late October though unless its like 2000 feet in the Catskills or something.

 

It's pretty amazing how evenly distributed the curve is by month for this region, but makes sense when you think that the greatest factor is having surface sub-freezing air available (i.e. January).

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It's pretty amazing how evenly distributed the curve is by month for this region, but makes sense when you think that the greatest factor is having surface sub-freezing air available (i.e. January).

 

We are probably over-due for a region-wide ice storm. December 2008 was huge for the hilly interior areas (mostly in MA and far SW NH) and then the Merrimack Valley region of S NH and extreme N MA...but outside of that, it was not a huge event.

 

It feels like the last major icestorm for the SNE region was 2/28/95...maybe you could throw in Jan 1999 but it warmed up pretty quickly in that one. Interior has had many a moderate ice event in recent years aside from 12/08, but the CP "feels" overdue. But I'm not exactly certain on the return period there...I know 1991 had a big one too IIRC and of course some semi-moderate icing on the CP in 1994.

 

There have been some very localized icing events that hit part of the CP in more recent years (Merrimack got one in January 2007), but usually it was just a small transition zone type event. Maybe I'm missing a big one somewhere.

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We are probably over-due for a region-wide ice storm. December 2008 was huge for the hilly interior areas (mostly in MA and far SW NH) and then the Merrimack Valley region of S NH and extreme N MA...but outside of that, it was not a huge event.

 

It feels like the last major icestorm for the SNE region was 2/28/95...maybe you could throw in Jan 1999 but it warmed up pretty quickly in that one. Interior has had many a moderate ice event in recent years aside from 12/08, but the CP "feels" overdue. But I'm not exactly certain on the return period there...I know 1991 had a big one too IIRC and of course some semi-moderate icing on the CP in 1994.

 

There have been some very localized icing events that hit part of the CP in more recent years (Merrimack got one in January 2007), but usually it was just a small transition zone type event. Maybe I'm missing a big one somewhere.

Will~  I remember in the early/mid 80's getting some icing events in Southern Worc County, but the closest since is the 2008 event. It got as close as North Oxford to me here in CT, and that;s it. Has NE CT had ice storms in the past?

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Will~  I remember in the early/mid 80's getting some icing events in Southern Worc County, but the closest since is the 2008 event. It got as close as North Oxford to me here in CT, and that;s it. Has NE CT had ice storms in the past?

 

 

Nov 16, 2002 was pretty major for NE CT.

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Euro bias of holding energy back in the SW seems to be around on this run, expect that to eject and not cutoff, Halloween could be stormy. Ensemble

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Nice gradient on the euro ensembles near NE. Nothing like seeing a +10C and a -10C isotherm over the same area at hr 240 on the ensembles. Still, that's very gradient like.

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Will~  I remember in the early/mid 80's getting some icing events in Southern Worc County, but the closest since is the 2008 event. It got as close as North Oxford to me here in CT, and that;s it. Has NE CT had ice storms in the past?

 

They got hammered in Dec 1973 (while BGR had rain and 50s.)   I think "region-wide" ice storms are very uncommon in the Northeast, perhaps more frequent in the South or the OV, though that's just a guess.  The Jan 1998 event, though it didn't impact SNE/CNE (or the northern third of Maine), was the worst of my 40 years in Maine by an order of magnitude, both in damage caused on a per-unit-area basis and especially by extent.  Not many such events knock out power from Montreal to the Maritimes.  The only comparable ice storm of my experience, for intensity, was in Jan 1953, and its severe effect was probably limited to a few thousand square miles north and west of NYC (and away from the river valleys, where it was plain rain.)

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Im in NYC right now...traveling this week.

Jay Peak showing white now...

 

where'd you pull the Jay Peak shot from?  A friend?  Always wondered why they don't have webcams (pretty much the only resort that doesn't).  Maybe a live cam wouldn't jive with their snow reporting...

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where'd you pull the Jay Peak shot from? A friend? Always wondered why they don't have webcams (pretty much the only resort that doesn't). Maybe a live cam wouldn't jive with their snow reporting...

it's from their website. Yeah, they could definitely use a webcam.

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where'd you pull the Jay Peak shot from? A friend? Always wondered why they don't have webcams (pretty much the only resort that doesn't). Maybe a live cam wouldn't jive with their snow reporting...

Facebook for Jay Peak.

Mtn Ops at Stowe reported graupel sticking to the mulch and dirt around mid-afternoon then trended over to more true flakes than GS/IP. Coating is what the accums seem to be at 3500Ft+.

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where'd you pull the Jay Peak shot from?  A friend?  Always wondered why they don't have webcams (pretty much the only resort that doesn't).  Maybe a live cam wouldn't jive with their snow reporting...

Yes...very odd isn't it...

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Facebook for Jay Peak.

Mtn Ops at Stowe reported graupel sticking to the mulch and dirt around mid-afternoon then trended over to more true flakes than GS/IP. Coating is what the accums seem to be at 3500Ft+.

 

You def won't have IP in this setup. Totally different beast. That is GS for sure.

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You def won't have IP in this setup. Totally different beast. That is GS for sure.

Yeah sorry, should've specified it was "pellet-like" was the description passed along to me and I figured it had to be GS.

Anyway, this trace looks like the first trace of snow...the COOP reported a T back in September but I was up there the whole time and it was freezing rain/mist for that event.

000

SXUS51 KBTV 222123

HYDBTV

DAILY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

523 PM EDT TUE OCT 22 2013

STATION PRECIP TEMPERATURE PRESENT SNOW

24 HRS MAX MIN CUR WEATHER NEW TOTAL SWE

...VERMONT...

MOUNT MANSFIELD 0.18 43 31 32 T

ST JOHNSBURY

$$

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Yes...very odd isn't it...

To the best of my knowledge we are trying to get an upper mountain web cam going at 3,600ft on the Octagon summit lodge at the top of the FourRunner Quad....really could've used that cam today. I've been dying for one so I can see what color the deck up there is in these early/late season events...brown paint or coated white with snow.

Is Killington the only spot with a real high elevation web cam right now in VT?

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Rare but not unprecedented for New England. At the time the November 1921 ice storm was the worst in central New England history.

 

 

I'll have to look that one up and geek out for a few minutes ...   :thumbsup:

 

It's why I said "symbolic prelude" -- as in, more likely a coincidental appeal, but if that were on a D4.5 panel of December 15 that would be tasty for the icers on the board.  At this time of year, no antecedent snow pack even in nearby northern NE and Ontario to back an a-geo wind with conduction, we're looking at seasonal chill prior to what appears to be a warm front in the extended.  

 

Re that period ...I'm not sure the models are handling the larger scale circulation/eddy forcing during that period.  The MJO is set to emerge smartly along the Phase 8/1 quatrains as a moderate strengh wave, and we continue to see the -WPO assisting to jam typhoons into the AB phase of the NP ... Not sure the EPO domain space is being handled very well, as the -WPO/recurve/MJO would tend to usurp a different scenario than what the operational runs are offering over the N and NE Pacific ... which of course than subsequently effects the relay into N/A -- and the GFS appears to be trying to sell us a quasi-zonal flow during it's extended, too.

 

I suppose it could go down that way, but it would be an anomalous unstable flow, headed for a change if we end up with that kind of low amplitude longitudinal bias to the flow over N/A, while these other teleconnectors are in play..

 

Bottom line, I'd keep one's warm expectations in check for the time being.  Just imo -

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