earthlight Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Maybe just the fact that this thread exists is what makes me believe that some people think a high threat exists. That's for them to decide. Some ingredients are definitely there but like you said when we've had setups like this before (earlier in the summer), it's done nothing but squat. Setups like these are just teasers to stimulate the mind till actual good events come though. You might be getting your cold weather shot at the end of the month though with Euro weeklies hinting at ridging over GOA so hopefully an eventful Nov. is around the corner. I'm over this crap (minus my warm temps of course). The thread is titled "Possible severe weather threat", I haven't seen anyone say anything about a high threat or widespread severe weather being expected. But the ingredients are there for the potential for some strong winds -- especially the further south and west you go where there is some more prevalent instability. So I am not too sure what you're driving at in this post. Anyway, the NAM is pretty impressive still across CT and farther south over NJ. High dew points and a spike to 1000 j/kg of surface based instability just ahead of the front. The strong wind fields and favorable shear just above the surface lends some confidence to the fact that there will be some strong wind reports, maybe even out ahead of the front. I think the tornado threat is isolated, but wouldn't be surprised to see a spinup embedded within the squall line as it shifts eastward..especially near the best juxtaposition of low level shear and instability over NE PA - NJ and into SE NY and SW CT. The warm front really has trouble pushing northeast of there, so I think the severe threat will be pretty limited over Long Island and coastal New England. But as always...we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Alright well this thread went down lol. It's definitely higher further SW, but look at radar. All those links and bow segments are what the discussion is about. TOR warning down by DC now and that environment will move into western SNE later on. Of course it's not a high threat, but early October provides a small window where marine influence is non existent. Question is srfc heating and instability. I suppose you could argue it doesn't deserve a thread, but with the wx so dam Boring as of late....it's something for people to Talk about anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Does this include the synoptic winds ahead of the front? Looks like a good chunk of the interior Northeast from VT/W.MA/NY all under wind advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Tornado watch up to W New England border. Don't even know what this conversation is about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Tornado watch up to W New England border. Don't even know what this conversation is about. Nothing like a TOR watch at 9am in October... Winds really ramping up at summit level in the Greens. These types of gusts and steadily increasing winds never gets old...it's calm one minute then just freight train gusts out of the south the next minute. The usual ramp up of an approaching low level jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Ryan brought up the 0-3km CAPE of 125J on the NAM. That's actually real good given the shear. Most setups don't have that and Kevin's dews are helping out. It's definitely not really worthy of dismissal given that timing is probably going to help out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Good read. Ryan posted this before. https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/115477.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Nothing like a TOR watch at 9am in October... Winds really ramping up at summit level in the Greens. These types of gusts and steadily increasing winds never gets old...it's calm one minute then just freight train gusts out of the south the next minute. The usual ramp up of an approaching low level jet. May as well slam the door with a bang. Nada with the wind here thus far. 54.3/54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Outside of the main event but getting some tropical downpours here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Tornado watch up to W New England border. Don't even know what this conversation is about. I hope you're being sarcastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Tornado watch up to W New England border. Don't even know what this conversation is about. It's about me stating my opinion for our area. Didn't know I had to name every street and address every time I make a post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 It's about me stating my opinion for our area. Didn't know I had to name every street and address every time I make a post. its definitely not sunny in your house today LOL, I think most agree with you but certainly far W areas of the forum have some concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2013 Author Share Posted October 7, 2013 What do mets think of that TOR threat extending into SNE a bit later? Warm front moved thru about a minute ago. The pea soup fog vanished almost instantly and south winds blowing 15 mph now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Pouring at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Maybe just the fact that this thread exists is what makes me believe that some people think a high threat exists. That's for them to decide. Some ingredients are definitely there but like you said when we've had setups like this before (earlier in the summer), it's done nothing but squat. Setups like these are just teasers to stimulate the mind till actual good events come though. You might be getting your cold weather shot at the end of the month though with Euro weeklies hinting at ridging over GOA so hopefully an eventful Nov. is around the corner. I'm over this crap (minus my warm temps of course). Not every threat will pan out but their is a threat there, otherwise the SPC would not have thrown up Tornado Watches. And just because the Watched area stops at the CT border does not mean anything will occur in adjacent areas, just that the best chance for development is within that watched area. Tempered hype and expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Deluge. Yeah, this leading stuff is moisture laden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 This thread is bigger than your backyard. You think? Not every threat will pan out but there is a threat there, otherwise the SPC would not have thrown up Tornado Watches. And just because the Watched area stops at the CT border does not mean anything will occur in adjacent areas, just that the best chance for development is within that watched area. Tempered hype and expectations. I know that I'm not stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I haven't looks t anything at all but if that 125 J of Cape pans ou in the 0-3 km level that Ryan posted that is pretty significant actually. One underrated aspect that usually gets discussed in our threads is 0-3km cape. Anyways on my way home from class and sun tryin to pop though in Hartford Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 You think? I know that I'm not stupid. relax bro, we understand what you were saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 You think? I know that I'm not stupid. You've made your point clear. You think the treat is minimal. Some agree, some do not. And for some, this is about as exciting a day as there's been in a while. Sit back and enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Looks like the downpours and the time my class gets out match up perfectly lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Main threat west of New England today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Main threat west of New England today Yea I certainly do not expect much, Radarman posted the OKX sounding,. Ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 You've made your point clear. You think the treat is minimal. Some agree, some do not. And for some, this is about as exciting a day as there's been in a while. Sit back and enjoy. yeah... No need to rain on everyone's parade. If I smoke cirrus I don't post that the storm sucks in a SNE obs thread. There's a threat for the western part of the region so it's worthy of discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2013 Author Share Posted October 7, 2013 HRR looks like it pops some discrete cells later this afternoon ahead of the main squall line. it's got the line moving thru SNE from about 4 or 5:00- 8:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Yea I certainly do not expect much, Radarman posted the OKX sounding,. Ugly We're bracing down here in Northern NJ though. Expecting a few gusts to 50 MPH in the strongest convection early this afternoon and an isolated spin up or two. The NAM has the sun breaking through ahead of the line with around 1000 J/KG of SBCAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2013 Author Share Posted October 7, 2013 Yea I certainly do not expect much, Radarman posted the OKX sounding,. Ugly Not a day you worry about soundings lol Bob Maxon @bobmaxon5m Wind Advisory for Litchfield Co. until 8:00pm. But damaging winds are possible everywhere this afternoon/evening. 50 mph from the South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 We're bracing down here in Northern NJ though. Expecting a few gusts to 50 MPH in the strongest convection early this afternoon and an isolated spin up or two. The NAM has the sun breaking through ahead of the line with around 1000 J/KG of SBCAPE. seems like a day where NYC get a tor in da bronx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Not a day you worry about soundings lol Bob Maxon @bobmaxon5m Wind Advisory for Litchfield Co. until 8:00pm. But damaging winds are possible everywhere this afternoon/evening. 50 mph from the South. well squall line winds and tornado's are two different entities, soundings FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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