weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Havin an 18z sounding would be much better b/c that sounding has warm front pretty much nearby giving such a screwy look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 The strong shear axis advecting into the region from the SW means business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 some clearing off to the south here (and the entire south coast for that matter)...maybe get some sun to destabilize? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 HRR shows line weakening as it reaches EMA.. snoozer here based on that, enjoy those that get lucky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 HRR shows line weakening as it reaches EMA.. snoozer here based on that, enjoy those that get lucky! Southerly flow days are not our strong suit in E MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2013 Author Share Posted October 7, 2013 Wind advisory for all of interior SNE..bye bye leaves ..STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...CTZ002>004-MAZ003>007-010>019-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>004-072200-/O.EXB.KBOX.WI.Y.0017.131007T1800Z-131008T0000Z/HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...GLOUCESTER...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...AYER...JAFFREY...KEENE...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK955 AM EDT MON OCT 7 2013...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDTTHIS EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINDADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PMEDT THIS EVENING.* WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.* LOCATION...MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHCOAST.* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOONPERIOD. SOME STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONTDURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.* IMPACTS...WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY DOWN BRANCHES OR SMALLTREES. SOME POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Sun's peaking through!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Looks like 12z NAM reduced instability a bit out west. As usual...it's never clear cut, but that radar over central PA and those kinks or weak meso lows with those side step breaks in the line are what to watch over SE NY and perhaps western areas later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Wind advisory for all of interior SNE..bye bye leaves ..STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON... CTZ002>004-MAZ003>007-010>019-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>004- 072200- /O.EXB.KBOX.WI.Y.0017.131007T1800Z-131008T0000Z/ HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA- NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA- EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA- SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA- SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA- WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA- CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH- WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI- SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION... VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...BARRE... FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...GLOUCESTER... AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER... FOXBORO...NORWOOD...CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON... BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...AYER...JAFFREY...KEENE...MANCHESTER... NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD... PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK 955 AM EDT MON OCT 7 2013 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. * WINDS...SOUTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. * LOCATION...MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTH COAST. * TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD. SOME STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONT DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. * IMPACTS...WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY DOWN BRANCHES OR SMALL TREES. SOME POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. that is not only interior SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 that is not only interior SNEKevin doesn't work in details only broad hype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Looks like 12z NAM reduced instability a bit out west. As usual...it's never clear cut, but that radar over central PA and those kinks or weak meso lows with those side step breaks in the line are what to watch over SE NY and perhaps western areas later. Yeah - the 12z RAP is quite meh with instability though the 6z NAM is quite robust. Haven't gotten the 12z NAM in BUFKIT yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 WFO BTV LAST UPDATED AT 351 AM EDT MON OCT 07 2013 .TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH AROUND 63. SOUTH WINDS 50 TO 55 MPH...INCREASING TO 55 TO 65 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Suns starting to come out could be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2013 Author Share Posted October 7, 2013 NAM actually looks very similar to 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 The 14z RAP has 550 j/kg of CAPE at BDL at 19z with 0-1km helicity of >300 m2/s2 at 3 p.m. this afternoon. Nearly 100 j/kg of CAPE in the 0-3km layer with LCLs near 400 meters. That's a pretty impressive setup for a low CAPE/high shear tornado event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2013 Author Share Posted October 7, 2013 The 14z RAP has 550 j/kg of CAPE at BDL at 19z with 0-1km helicity of >300 m2/s2 at 3 p.m. this afternoon. Nearly 100 j/kg of CAPE in the 0-3km layer with LCLs near 400 meters. That's a pretty impressive setup for a low CAPE/high shear tornado event. Hypothetically speaking..is this setup on paper more impressive than the parameters for the Oct 79 TOR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 It is so muggy out there and these sunny breaks makes it feel like July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Dr. Postel says he wouldn't be surprised to have the watch extended into SNE later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I feel like this could be a good wind event for NE NY and VT as that line tries to bow and move towards Albany on north this afternoon. Certainly strong wind potential heading into VT later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2013 Author Share Posted October 7, 2013 Man..I didn't think we'd have sun today but it's legit partly sunny out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Man..I didn't think we'd have sun today but it's legit partly sunny out there Actually this is some of the more impressive sun we've had in setups like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Hypothetically speaking..is this setup on paper more impressive than the parameters for the Oct 79 TOR? meh I really wouldn't worry about how parameters compare. All these parameters and ingredients come together differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I feel like this could be a good wind event for NE NY and VT as that line tries to bow and move towards Albany on north this afternoon. Certainly strong wind potential heading into VT later. What time you thinking the line moves into CT? I have class 1:15 to 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Breaks of strong sun N Andover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 These fast jet high shear events always seem to bring the line through early, id keep that in mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Tor warning VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 What time you thinking the line moves into CT? I have class 1:15 to 3 NAM and other high res models have it (the main line) coming through 5-6 pm give or take... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 What time you thinking the line moves into CT? I have class 1:15 to 3 Probably after that. Maybe 5-6? It depends on how or if any bows develop like the one in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Looks like some rotation on that line near Meshoppen/Tunkhannock in NE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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