Damage In Tolland Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 THE MAIN CONCERN MAYACTUALLY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. A VERY STRONGSOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE IN PLACE MON EVENING WITH 850 MBWINDS REACHING 65 KTS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FINE LINE OFCONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDGUSTS ALONG IT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED...ALWAYS A CONCERN FOR AVIATION.SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 10 KT WILL INCREASE TO 65 KTS OUT OFTHE SOUTH AT 5000 FT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 THE MAIN CONCERN MAY ACTUALLY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. A VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE IN PLACE MON EVENING WITH 850 MB WINDS REACHING 65 KTS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FINE LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG IT. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. IN ADDITION... LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED...ALWAYS A CONCERN FOR AVIATION. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 10 KT WILL INCREASE TO 65 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 5000 FT. Bangers and a spinner here and there ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 6, 2013 Author Share Posted October 6, 2013 Bangers and a spinner here and there ?Hypefully . Ryans been on this threat for a few days now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Threat is intriguing - we'll see. All will come down to whether we can generate enough instability. I'd like to see the front speed up a bit otherwise the threat stays west in SE NY/NJ and maybe W CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 slight risk for western areas tomorrow I thought we seen the last of severe weather but guess not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 I dont see the tornado threat but I could see some strong gust with this DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1240 PM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013VALID 071200Z - 081200Z...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THEMID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES......MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND...THE CLOSED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TOACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY AS IT BEGINS TO PHASE WITH ANADDITIONAL TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF QUEBEC/ONTARIO. SHOWERS/SOMETSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING NEAR ANEASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS IT SPREADS EAST OF THEAPPALACHIANS. THIS POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING PRECIPITATION/CLOUDCOVER...AND RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...PROVIDES UNCERTAINTYREGARDING THE EXACT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DIURNALHEATING CYCLE.BUT WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THEREGION...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION/INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILTOF THE UPPER TROUGH...THERE WILL BE SOME SEVERE POTENTIALPARTICULARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...EVEN WITH RELATIVELY LIMITEDBUOYANCY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ANDA MARKED STRENGTHENING OF LOWER-MIDDLE TROPOSPHERICWINDS...ACCENTUATED BY 50+ KT SSW WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST 1 KM.OVERALL SCENARIO COULD SUPPORT A STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERELOW-TOPPED ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION...WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDEDSMALL-SCALE BOWS. EVEN MODESTLY SUSTAINED /PERHAPS EVENNON-LIGHTNING PRODUCING/ EMBEDDED UPDRAFTS MAY CAUSE CONCERN FORDAMAGING WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 the cape drops off east of the hudson on model progs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 the cape drops off east of the hudson on model progs Not really on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 i'm limited to what i can get on bufkit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 i'm limited to what i can get on bufkit GFS is very meh with the instability... NAM a bit more robust and last night's Euro was the most unstable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 GFS is very meh with the instability... NAM a bit more robust and last night's Euro was the most unstable. Not sure how much buoyancy is really needed when there is so much mechanical forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 Not sure how much buoyancy is really needed when there is so much mechanical forcing. Still need some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 6, 2013 Share Posted October 6, 2013 && Short term /8 am Monday morning through Tuesday night/... as of 354 PM EDT Sunday...the cold front will begin to spread precipitation into the slv from the west in the late morning/early afternoon on Monday. Low level jet persists into the afternoon with 50-60kts ahead of attending cold front. Instability lacking with generally less than 100j/kg of cape...but plenty of shear over the area from the strong low level jet. With precipitable waters over 1.6 inches possible...have included slight chance and chance for ts and heavy rain. Expect front to bring precipitation to cpv by midday with mesoscale models showing fine line of strong showers/ts possible. Ahead of the front...temperatures will peak into the l70s in the valleys. Monday evening...the front will pick up momentum as the upper trough lifts northeastward into southeastern Ontario/southern Quebec. Expect showers and ts to quickly exit eastern Vermont early Tuesday morning. Within northwest flow...some remnant moisture may keep slight chance of showers mainly over terrain." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 00z NAM doesn't look half bad tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 If the 00z NAM is right the severe threat could be pretty sizable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 GFS is still fairly meager with the instability tomorrow up in SW New England - though is decent back into NJ. The 00z NAM has a fairly impressive low CAPE/high shear environment for tomorrow. While the favored storm mode will be linear/QLCS there is sufficient 0-1km shear (40+ knots!) and surface based CAPES and low LCLs (around 400-600 meters) where tornadoes are a possibility. In fact, the NAM is as impressive if not more impressive with its forecast for tomorrow than both tornado days in CT this summer (including the infamous Tolland fakenado). One thing that really caught my interest on the NAM was 0-3km CAPE values >100 j/kg We'll see what tomorrow winds up bringing but I'm definitely intrigued. This is the graphic I used at 11 p.m. to show the threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 GFS is still fairly meager with the instability tomorrow up in SW New England - though is decent back into NJ. The 00z NAM has a fairly impressive low CAPE/high shear environment for tomorrow. While the favored storm mode will be linear/QLCS there is sufficient 0-1km shear (40+ knots!) and surface based CAPES and low LCLs (around 400-600 meters) where tornadoes are a possibility. In fact, the NAM is as impressive if not more impressive with its forecast for tomorrow than both tornado days in CT this summer (including the infamous Tolland fakenado). One thing that really caught my interest on the NAM was 0-3km CAPE values >100 j/kg We'll see what tomorrow winds up bringing but I'm definitely intrigued. This is the graphic I used at 11 p.m. to show the threat. Wow, 40+ knots of sheer is impressive, but do you think the NAM is being over zealous on CAPE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 5% TOR for Hudson Valley into E PA/NJ per SPC. Certainly some strong wind fields, I think there will be many strong gusts, perhaps some severe. NAM had 925mb winds up to 50kts, or at least the 18z run did. Was out in central PA a short time ago and it was mostly clear, but quite breezy. Hit some good wind gusts with the front in Ohio earlier as well. We'll see what later today brings. I'll run some numbers and see how this compares to prior 2013 events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 5% TOR for Hudson Valley into E PA/NJ per SPC. Even far NW CT and western Mass gets clipped with 5% probs... is that the first time this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 While this sounds good and all, lapse rates are lacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2013 Author Share Posted October 7, 2013 6z NAM still looks good and it appears 6z GFS got a bit better. It would be funny if our only severe outbreak this season was October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 You don't need mid level lapse rates for these flashy spin ups that occur. Just shear and enough CAPE to stretch the lower 10-15k or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2013 Author Share Posted October 7, 2013 BTW..I found another person who has footage from the TOR we had in July. My daughter's assistant soccer coach was driving up 30 and saw debris in the air. He took video from his phone..and showed it to me yesterday. He's gonna forward it to me and I'll post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I'm sure the soccer coach is well trained to spot one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2013 Author Share Posted October 7, 2013 I'm sure the soccer coach is well trained to spot one.Theres multiple videos of it and multiple reports. The public who knows little of wx knows something is up , it tells you something special happened that day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Isolated t-storms at best. Guys are getting excited over nothing. I'll believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 I don't think anyone says its a high threat. It displays some ingredients that we've had before with these setups. We obviously know the caveats with these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Besides, these setups barely have any lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted October 7, 2013 Share Posted October 7, 2013 Maybe just the fact that this thread exists is what makes me believe that some people think a high threat exists. That's for them to decide. Some ingredients are definitely there but like you said when we've had setups like this before (earlier in the summer), it's done nothing but squat. Setups like these are just teasers to stimulate the mind till actual good events come though. You might be getting your cold weather shot at the end of the month though with Euro weeklies hinting at ridging over GOA so hopefully an eventful Nov. is around the corner. I'm over this crap (minus my warm temps of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2013 Author Share Posted October 7, 2013 Isolated t-storms at best. Guys are getting excited over nothing. I'll believe it when I see it.The threat is much less out east where you are . Maybe that's why your're down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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