dryslot Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Wish this was next friday already........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 For the general enthusiasts and Mets et all: Major problems with that latter system as of the 00z Jan 1 runs across the board, however. The upshot is that we have plenty enough lead time to morph things more favorably ( So please no grousing - ), but this is what should be looked for in future runs: 1) Less leading gradient in the geopotential medium over the TV. We need to have better erosion of the heights over the northern Gulf, FL and adjacent areas. As is modeled ... there is a slight positive anomaly there that is accentuated tremendously by anomalous blocking up in Canada that intermediately is pinning a strong negative anomaly through southern and southeastern Canada. That configuration is causing too much gradient farther south in the balanced medium of the deep layer troposphere; the result of which means that systems attempting to move through 35-45N belt by 100-70W approximate rectangulum are shearing - this is more technically a negative wave interference (which for you youngins you'll learn what that means in physical terms in the coming torturous academic journey of the doggedly determined to never find a job Meteorological hopeful...) that is effective at both the L/W and S/W length scales. The balanced flow through that region would have been anomalously fast anyway given to such a strong blocking pinning that negative region N as described, but here it is augmented even higher by the fact that for 48 to 72 hour prior to the trough in the deep SW CONUS region was pumping heights up down stream in the lower MV, TV and Gulf regions. 2) More southern stream dynamics needs to come through the western ridge - or perhaps doing so as an over-the-topper intermediate stream S/W like in 1978. What that would do is assist the erosion of the medium as described above. The 00z ECM is pretty close actually at doing this with an over-the-topper. At 144 hours it has a nice area of positive vorticity coming off the Pacific, and this zooms over the top of the ridge, dives ESE through the western lakes and triggers the subsuming of the SPV south. I am not sure folks realize just how close that is to the makings of an event that would rival the last. It's probably a matter of 6DM or so height resistance away from both digging the core of the negative anomaly ideally under our latitude while simultaneously dramatically improving the DPVA as it does so. That is all code for KerBAM BOOMBA BOMB (check page 172 of AMS Glossary of terms). At 6 days away, do we want to hedge our bets that a stronger Pac injection won't take place? No, if you have an iota of intellect you would not. The 06z GFS is actually somewhat similar, but is actually even weaker with the southern and/or intermediate dynamics. There is some present in the run, but by and large the run uses almost entirely the SPV to do everything. That almost reminds me of a March 2001 scenario there, but perhaps displaced farther up the coast. 3) I seem to recall there were a couple of cycles prior to the last historic-for-the-MA-while-wasting-the-time-for-interior-SNE, storm that a wave some 3 days prior to the main show was monitored. In a way, we are in a similar scenario with this will-it-or-won't-it clipper; maybe we can will it into being? Anyway, enough so that my thoughts as I came out of slumber this morning went to repeating historic bomb winter of 2010-2011. I frankly do not believe we are going to ever see a meaningful -AO/-NAO recovery this year, as the AMO and the solar cycle are strong linear correlations and both are aiming downward like porn star on a drugged out 19-year old. Moreover, the -AO overall in the hemisphere is masking the typical La Nina regime; in fact, because the gradients are what they are, we are almost seeing a more Le Nino like deal with all these coastals. But that is supposition.. The point is, the governing parameters do not appear to really have a means to change before this cold season's overall characteristic is in the books. The -AO and La Nina during a negative solar cycle just may appear to be a gem of the year. Join the club. This winter is going to get better as we move along. Happy 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 December was "good" here; not bad, not great.....about or a bit better than I had expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 December was "good" here; not bad, not great.....about or a bit better than I had expected. Congrats Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Wish this was next friday already........... Yeah, it looks great. Just gotta get it to hold for 6 days. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Nice bomb on the 12z gfs for next friday........968mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Nice bomb on the 12z gfs for next friday........968mb I Miller B's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Yeah, it looks great. Just gotta get it to hold for 6 days. lol We have had more major canes than anywhere in the US, throughout that "epic" ACE season last summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I Miller B's. Yeah, Miller B's........ftw up here no doub't........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I Miller B's. I don't like that fact that there is a low, as opposed to a high N of ME......red flag that expectations should be kept in check even more than usual relative to the extended lead at which it is currently being modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 We have had more major canes than anywhere in the US, throughout that "epic" ACE season last summer. You would get crushed on the friday storm......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Nice post John! I just reviewed the 00z Euro and GFS. There are certain qualities of the GFS that remind me of March 01 also. I was actually just about to post that, and glad you did first to give it some credibility We're very close to seeing some HECS model runs. Whether or not it verifies is a whole different story. But I think we have the potential for at least some good model porn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I don't like that fact that there is a low, as opposed to a high N of ME......red flag that expectations should be kept in check even more than usual relative to the extended lead at which it is currently being modeled. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 This latest GFS run is extremely pornographic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Did anyone else clear there cache several times on the GFS run, thought for sure it was last weeks KU run, too funny, mega crushing LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Did anyone else clear there cache several times on the GFS run, thought for sure it was last weeks KU run, too funny, maga crushing LOL boring........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 What the hell is the gfs doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 You would get crushed on the friday storm......... Yeah, 2+ QPF for coastal areas in NH and Mass. This will be fun to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 You would get crushed on the friday storm......... I would....but I'm just mentioning one red flag; as I stated in that thread, we don't need ALL conditions met, but that is one strike against a huge event. H5 looks great....maybe optimal for a bit so of my lat.........I realize this is silly at such an extended lead, but I'm just trying to refine my upper air interpretation skills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Yeah, 2+ QPF for coastal areas in NH and Mass. This will be fun to keep an eye on. I see late nights in my future.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 What the hell is the gfs doing? Giving me a Miller B-East that would reneder me indifferent to how the rest of the winter evolved. EURO will prob have 1-3". lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 What the hell is the gfs doing? Just your ordinary 498dm vortex off Atlantic City, with hurricane force winds for all of SNE. Other than that, nothing of interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I would....but I'm just mentioning one red flag; as I stated in that thread, we don't need ALL conditions met, but that is one strike against a huge event. H5 looks great....maybe optimal for a bit so of my lat.........I realize this is silly at such an extended lead, but I'm just trying to refine my upper air interpretation skills. Well you knew it would look great at H5, Its still out there in fantasy land but i like the look of the northern strean involvement, Less likely to get hosed up here........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 That is just pure pure sex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Did anyone else clear there cache several times on the GFS run, thought for sure it was last weeks KU run, too funny, mega crushing LOL I know.....another 968 lol This run is worlds different, than that.......classic Miller B.....fook the s stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Giving me a Miller B-East that would reneder me indifferent to how the rest of the winter evolved. EURO will prob have 1-3". lol The euro was similar in some respects, but the 12z gfs went bonkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 The GFS is filthy...I feel guilty for looking at in front of Amy and Sarah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Giving me a Miller B-East that would reneder me indifferent to how the rest of the winter evolved. EURO will prob have 1-3". lol Probably. And somewhere in the middle the twain shall meet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Well you knew it would look great at H5, Its still out there in fantasy land but i like the look of the northern strean involvement, Less likely to get hosed up here........ I'm going to go out on a limb and a assume that that sw will be discovered to be a little weaker between now and proper assimilation. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 The euro was similar in some respects, but the 12z gfs went bonkers. Yeah, It did not look bad on the euro at 00z, Like i said, Less likely screwing with the northern stream, Thats what we have been missing.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.