MaineJayhawk Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 lol, Low is parked over eastport......... Endurance event .. love it. Let's work on that low placement now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Run blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 12z Euro is very close to the GFS through hr96. Then the whole things starts to tilt neutral much quick on the Euro, thus not as much digging before the wave breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 lol, Low is parked over eastport......... Maine for the win! Maybe I should visit my in-laws. Eh--maybe not. 44.1/36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I'll blow. Who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 12z Euro is very close to the GFS through hr96. Then the whole things starts to tilt neutral much quick on the Euro, thus not as much digging before the wave breaks. Well, at least we have a consensus for P Cloudy through mid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Endurance event .. love it. Let's work on that low placement now. Epic qpf numbers up here..........75"-2.5".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Well, at least we have a conscencus for P Cloudy through mid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Maine for the win! Maybe I should visit my in-laws. Eh--maybe not. 44.1/36 You would probably see your way around it to come here for this........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 The agreement between the Euro and GFS at hr144 is pretty awesome for dropping that vortex into the Ohio Valley, and the overall H5 pattern is very very similar. You really need to take a closer look, along with vorticity overlay to see that the "spoke" in the vortex that triggers cyclogenesis is about 90 degrees CCW of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Epic qpf numbers up here..........75"-2.5".... .75" in southwest and trending higher further north I take it. Sounds good ... it'll change, hopefully for the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Euro really trying to pop something, but just a shade late...need to get the vortex to dig a tad more. As is though, its a nice advisory event...and probably a low end warning event for NNE. Your penchants for conservatism is admirable ...ah, yea. um, I'm looking at 48 hours of near 100% RH at 700mb, with some 4 to 5 contours worth of 90-degree cross geopotential flow. Definitely would be interested to see a QPF product off this run for that area - I bet that is 30" of snow. Either way, can you imagine the E facing slopes of the White Mountains in that? Probably all moot anyway being D6 or whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 The agreement between the Euro and GFS at hr144 is pretty awesome for dropping that vortex into the Ohio Valley, and the overall H5 pattern is very very similar. You really need to take a closer look, along with vorticity overlay to see that the "spoke" in the vortex that triggers cyclogenesis is about 90 degrees CCW of the GFS Yeah I'm pretty encouraged....dig that slightly more and we go from a 3-6" event to a MECS or better. At this point its just nice to see some of the larger features getting more agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Well, at least we have a consensus for P Cloudy through mid week. You're right, I'd definitely rather have epic model disagreement after hr24 when I'm looking for confidence in a 144hr forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Run blows. It doesn't Ray. It offers a Ray of hope that an earlier phase is still on the table as plausible. The 00z to 12z trend is remarkable, and clearly one that is most likely not settled just yet. You drop that sucker 1.5 in latitude and you will probably actually end up scared like a little girl that a big bad monster is coming to do bad things to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Your penchants for conservatism is admirable ...ah, yea. um, I'm looking at 48 hours of near 100% RH at 700mb, with some 4 to 5 contours worth of 90-degree cross geopotential flow. Definitely would be interested to see a QPF product off this run for that area - I bet that is 30" of snow. Either way, can you imagine the E facing slopes of the White Mountains in that? Probably all moot anyway being D6 or whatever Well it was before the run ended, lol. N Maine gets destroyed. The rest of NNE is more of a typical warning event on this run. But obviously very small changes could mean much larger snows for areas outside of N Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 It doesn't Ray. It offers a Ray of hope that an earlier phase is still on the table as plausible. The 00z to 12z trend is remarkable, and clearly one that is most likely not settled just yet. You drop that sucker 1.5 in latitude and you will probably actually end up scared like a little girl that a big bad monster is coming to do bad things to you. That's funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 You're right, I'd definitely rather have epic model disagreement after hr24 when I'm looking for confidence in a 144hr forecast It doesn't Ray. It offers a Ray of hope that an earlier phase is still on the table as plausible. The 00z to 12z trend is remarkable, and clearly one that is most likely not settled just yet. You drop that sucker 1.5 in latitude and you will probably actually end up scared like a little girl that a big bad monster is coming to do bad things to you. I understand that, but at this stage, I'm just looking for a run to beat it to.....and this one leaves me limp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 It doesn't Ray. It offers a Ray of hope that an earlier phase is still on the table as plausible. The 00z to 12z trend is remarkable, and clearly one that is most likely not settled just yet. You drop that sucker 1.5 in latitude and you will probably actually end up scared like a little girl that a big bad monster is coming to do bad things to you. Dt just updated and says this is a new england event only, and def not a mid atlantic event, says we need to watch for event on jan 11 and 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Well it was before the run ended, lol. N Maine gets destroyed. The rest of NNE is more of a typical warning event on this run. But obviously very small changes could mean much larger snows for areas outside of N Maine. Let's just take the GFS, fast foward to Friday, and call it a day. 44.7/36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I understand that, but at this stage, I'm just looking for a run to beat it to.....and this one leaves me limp. So beat it to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Run blows. Now, now. This isn't 2010 any more. Accentuate the positives. 2011 is going to show itself as a very different animal. I think there's going be a prolonged snow blitz starting soon. We will all rejoice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 So beat it to the GFS. I already did, but I don't have a penchant for monogamous relations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Dt just updated and says this is a new england event only, and def not a mid atlantic event, says we need to watch for event on jan 11 and 12th. 2011 is better already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Well, back to the Twlightzone marathon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 2011 is better already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 This euro run would definitly erase todays memory......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Dt just updated and says this is a new england event only, and def not a mid atlantic event, says we need to watch for event on jan 11 and 12th. That may be the case, but it is too soon to make that declaration. That is also what they said about the MA for the last one too, and I believe most at least got in the action, with the upper MA DEFINITELY getting into the action (sarcasm). We ended up with Blizzard Warning from VA to Maine and 2 days before most MA Mets had all but pulled the plug. Heck, even TWC said, "no storm out to see on this one folks" I said this on the radio show then that it was too soon. I'd heed this advice if I were you. Subtle timing and strength difference in what is relayed off the Pacific in the intermediate/southern streams can make one look like an genius or an utter idiot - best to just consider most possibilities until they are absolutely dead, and keep an open minded vigil. There is no way in heck the MA is off the hook on this right now. As I wrote in that main page thread, I put the greater possibility up in New England, but that by no means absolutely discounts areas farther S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Did we lose the clipper on Tuesday nite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Did we lose the clipper on Tuesday nite? Its still there, but its very moisture starved...maybe a few flurries. The vortmax diffuses out on the Euro run....we need it to hold together a bit stronger kind of like the end of the NAM run shows. I'm not very optimistic on the clipper potential...as it has trended worse the past 24h vs holding steady or getting better...but it still wouldn't shock me to see it come back a little more robust on future runs to give us a light event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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