CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Well there is room for more obviously, but if this were to be something more modest..I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Yeah no kidding. I love seeing that ridge north of AK. Canada is going to freeze...even more than normal..lol. I don't know if this was mentioned pages back int his thread (try to keep this on topic for those who aren't discussing the pattern)....but did you see how cold the Euro ensembles got Canada at the end of the run? There was like a huge area of -24C....which for an ensemble mean that far out is pretty ridiculous. You know that means there were probably a lot of members that had -30 and -35C 850s dumping into there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 12z GGEM trended significantly toward the GFS through 132 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 12z GGEM trended significantly toward the GFS through 132 hours. Nothing like the GGEM to get you excited a week out. But, intramodel concurence will be a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I would....but I'm just mentioning one red flag; as I stated in that thread, we don't need ALL conditions met, but that is one strike against a huge event. H5 looks great....maybe optimal for a bit so of my lat.........I realize this is silly at such an extended lead, but I'm just trying to refine my upper air interpretation skills. Classic Miller B-East Smokeshow from ORH points east. Considering NNE folks.....modeling at these extended leads never depict the precip shield to the N as extensively as they should relative to the H5 position.....the H5 position did look a hair s to me, but if this verified, that QPF gradient would be farther N than that. I susect that there would be a SHARP gradient, though because without a strong, truly arctic +pp near n ME, we would lack forcing immediately outside of the system's best dynamics. Will and Scott, I'd appreciate feedback here because I'm really trying to grasp the whole upper air concept.....fire away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 im hearing about the negative EPO developing?......this is music to my ears. can someone please post a link to the current EPO site, i know Will posted it before but i lost it http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/teleconn/ CDC ...CPC does not calculate the EPO domain as far as I am aware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Will and Scott, I'd appreciate feedback here because I'm really trying to grasp the whole upper air concept.....fire away. gosh, you used to care about my insights. b**ch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I don't like that fact that there is a low, as opposed to a high N of ME......red flag that expectations should be kept in check even more than usual relative to the extended lead at which it is currently being modeled. This, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 I don't know if this was mentioned pages back int his thread (try to keep this on topic for those who aren't discussing the pattern)....but did you see how cold the Euro ensembles got Canada at the end of the run? There was like a huge area of -24C....which for an ensemble mean that far out is pretty ridiculous. You know that means there were probably a lot of members that had -30 and -35C 850s dumping into there. Yeah, that was the inspiration for my post. That's dam cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 gosh, you used to care about my insights. b**ch I'm just in a hurry to hit the treadmill.....I knew you were gonna kill me for that. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 http://www.esrl.noaa...casts/teleconn/ CDC ...CPC does not calculate the EPO domain as far as I am aware. thanks much Tip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Will and Scott, I'd appreciate feedback here because I'm really trying to grasp the whole upper air concept.....fire away. The gfs does a weird thing with two qpf max's. One is more associated with a strong area of low level convergence near the low center, and the other with a developing CCB. The fact that the system is more elongated east to west, and not approaching from the sw will probably limit the northward extent of qpf, but we are early in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 This, too. Well personally, I have a high fetish so I'm biased....lol. It would be great to have a high there, but I can see how the gfs would generate such a solution with huge atl inflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 The gfs does a weird thing with two qpf max's. One is more associated with a strong area of low level convergence near the low center, and the other with a developing CCB. The fact that the system is more elongated east to west, and not approaching from the sw will probably limit the northward extent of qpf, but we are early in the game. the system looks like a further north version of feb 10th last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 January 2005 we had this property, but no house yet so I can't recall specifics of storms right here... But I do recall a very significant snow pack when coming here so obviously we did well with some of them. I'm sure we missed that 12/26 event for the most part. Who is we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 The gfs does a weird thing with two qpf max's. One is more associated with a strong area of low level convergence near the low center, and the other with a developing CCB. The fact that the system is more elongated east to west, and not approaching from the sw will probably limit the northward extent of qpf, but we are early in the game. That late burst of qpf on the GFS is definitely a big CCB developing. But regardless, given the time frame too early for specifics. The good thing about Miller Bs for ENE is they are generally intensifying at their most at an optimal position for that area. They aren't over-developed or occluded like sometimes Miller As are. The trajectory for the development too is key...with Miller Bs, you normally have a deep southerly flow in the MLs initially which will drive a dryslot up from the south and not the east or SE. So places SW of ENE and the south coast are usually more prone to dryslotting. Then as it bombs out, the ML flow starts to turn to the east and the dryslot never makes any more northward progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 12z UKMET is coming in impressive at 144 hours (see main page thread) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Final call 2-4 for LL, 4-8 for Ryan, Wiz, 5-10 for TOL, 6-12 for Will and BOS, 12-15 for GAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 There's definitely some timing differences on the Ukie and GFS...the GFS ensembles have many members much faster than the OP run too. Up to 12-18 hours faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Does this have a similar look to the March 99 bust. Any analogues? 12z UKMET is coming in impressive at 144 hours (see main page thread) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 That late burst of qpf on the GFS is definitely a big CCB developing. But regardless, given the time frame too early for specifics. The good thing about Miller Bs for ENE is they are generally intensifying at their most at an optimal position for that area. They aren't over-developed or occluded like sometimes Miller As are. The trajectory for the development too is key...with Miller Bs, you normally have a deep southerly flow in the MLs initially which will drive a dryslot up from the south and not the east or SE. So places SW of ENE and the south coast are usually more prone to dryslotting. Then as it bombs out, the ML flow starts to turn to the east and the dryslot never makes any more northward progress. Yeah remember the dryslot racing northeast during Jan '05? I remember how it got obliterated once the low started bombing and the whole flow began to back around more from the se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Yeah remember the dryslot racing northeast during Jan '05? I remember how it got obliterated once the low started bombing and the whole flow began to back around more from the se. If the 12z GFS run was right, again a big IF, then this storm could potentially be much more potent then the Blizzard of 2005, given that the PV or a chunk of it phases into the upper level trough and moves south of NYC. Again GFS develops this low down to 988mb over the OH Valley, something to keep a close eye on, probably on something if you ask me at this time, given we are almost inside the medium range period where the GFS loses it and the EURO gains the upper hand. I would caution on such an explosive storm so far WSWward already. I mean it is fine with a northern stream shortwave, but when the PV closed low drops out of Mantioba, Canada something has to give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Euro really trying to pop something, but just a shade late...need to get the vortex to dig a tad more. As is though, its a nice advisory event...and probably a low end warning event for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Final call 2-4 for LL, 4-8 for Ryan, Wiz, 5-10 for TOL, 6-12 for Will and BOS, 12-15 for GAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Euro really trying to pop something, but just a shade late...need to get the vortex to dig a tad more. As is though, its a nice advisory event...and probably a low end warning event for NNE. Yeah...nice hit in the ski areas...a decent snowpack replenishment here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Euro really trying to pop something, but just a shade late...need to get the vortex to dig a tad more. As is though, its a nice advisory event...and probably a low end warning event for NNE. Pretty good crushing for Northern Maine and here to some extent...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Pretty good crushing for Northern Maine and here to some extent...... It may never stop snowing there on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 It may never stop snowing there on this run. lol, Low is parked over eastport......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 3-6 on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 What is paramount on this run is that compared to the 00z it is heavily trended toward the GFS - obviously not a done deal wherever it goes from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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