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August 2013 Pattern & Discussion

LithiaWx

By LithiaWx,
in Southeastern States

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
Posted

The sun's magnetic poles are about to flip:

http://science1.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/05aug_fieldflip/

And the effect on our weather is????

Obviously it will mean colder and more snowy winters.

Typically our area in the country fairs better with the opposite polarity than the previous cycle. The N pole of the sun tends to have a pulling gravitational equatorial calisthenical effect on the polar vortex. So when the pole reverses, this will pull the polar vortex to other side of the Earth. The lag time between the polar vortex and reverse polarity of the sun is 1 month which would put us in the heart of winter with a polar vortex moving directly over the country. Bombogenesis has occurred every year when this takes place. Typically before this happens, a significant hurricane strikes FL. All the signs should be apparent starting with the hurricane in September.

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MichaelJ

MichaelJ

Posted
Posted

I fully expect to see another winter filled with predominately little blocking....we may have a tendency for a trough in the east, if soil moisture has anything to say about it, but that's just one component. It would be wise to keep a weather eye on the Pacific jet. As it goes, I'm afraid, so goes our winter...in a general sense, at least.

Latest ECMWF monthlies show massive blocking in the East for January

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

It sure looks like late Tues into next weekend is going to be active in terms of rain.  Surface cold front runs into our perma warm, humid August air mass Tues-Wed and stalls.  Thereafter, we remain unsettled as ridging builds out west with troughing along the Mississippi River...resulting in waves/vort maxes tracking through the SE.

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

Posted
Posted

It sure looks like late Tues into next weekend is going to be active in terms of rain.  Surface cold front runs into our perma warm, humid August air mass Tues-Wed and stalls.  Thereafter, we remain unsettled as ridging builds out west with troughing along the Mississippi River...resulting in waves/vort maxes tracking through the SE.

 

 

I'm a little surprised there hasn't been much conversation about what the global models have been showing for next week. This front looks to be pretty active and will tend to backdoor its way into the Carolinas and maybe North Georgia. The GFS runs all day have been showing a classic late-summer CAD for the Carolinas and into VA where it could be rainy and overcast just along and north of the surface convergence area.

GFS and Euro both keep that through 6-7, the Euro adds another wrinkle after day 7 trying to develop a cutoff over the Mid-South region...that may be a bit far off to put much faith in. But the general outlook for the upcoming work week looks pretty set.

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted

I'm a little surprised there hasn't been much conversation about what the global models have been showing for next week. This front looks to be pretty active and will tend to backdoor its way into the Carolinas and maybe North Georgia. The GFS runs all day have been showing a classic late-summer CAD for the Carolinas and into VA where it could be rainy and overcast just along and north of the surface convergence area.

GFS and Euro both keep that through 6-7, the Euro adds another wrinkle after day 7 trying to develop a cutoff over the Mid-South region...that may be a bit far off to put much faith in. But the general outlook for the upcoming work week looks pretty set.

I was going to post on this tonight. Looking like both the GFS and the Euro are very pretty much the same for this next week pattern wise. i was looking at the good chance of most of the SE seeing a pretty good cool down also coming from that trough coming in. Could see some pretty good departures of 5 to 15 degrees below normal. Looks very wet also as yall have talked about. Seen on the news were Asheville has only 11 inches to go to see there all time rainfall record be broke.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Looking at a good cool down by late next week. Maybe a CAD event?? 

 

From RAH last night:

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUILDS EASTWARD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THUS RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...HOWEVER IT IS NOT TOTALLY TRANSPARENT
THAT THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORK WEEK AS BOTH THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WARM SEASON DAMMING EVENT WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIP SPREADING BACK
NORTH INTO THE AREA AS THE FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR SOUTH
SHARPENS/STRENGTHENS AS EASTERN US TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. AS SUCH WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES:
AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND HIGH
RAIN CHANCES WILL CURB THE SUMMER HEAT ON TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...ULTIMATELY DEPENDING ON RAIN COVERAGE AND
TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TO CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...JUST HOW FAR BELOW
NORMAL WILL DEPEND ON CAD EVOLUTION...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S NORTH TO NEAR 80 SOUTH.

 

0z last night day 5, shows the first signs of a potential CAD

 

avn_crhlia_h120.gif
 

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

Posted
Posted

Man, talk about a lot of players being on the board with the 12z Goofus run...

 

First off, we're gonna have to watch a vort coming from the Plains eastward into the Mississippi River Valley and into the South. Really a lot of talk about that particular over on Robert's site and how that could be a big deal late Tuesday and into Wednesday. Could be a long track MCC from Kansas to Alabama and then turn eastward into Georgia and the Carolinas.

 

That feature will help usher in a huge warm season CAD event east of the Apps which could result in more rainfall and very cool temps. Then come next weekend, all signs leading to another significant trough setting up to put the Southeast in a deep southwest flow.

 

And now the big kicker...we have a tropical system from the Northwest Carribean that moves into the Southern GOM...just in time for the Southwest flow to scoop it up and lay another dagger to the water-logged Southeast US.

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WxJordan

WxJordan

Posted
Posted

I just posted information on my website about the upcoming weather scenario. I believe many areas will, once again, see very heavy rain in the southeast. The post is mainly for North Carolina; however, it can be expanded to many areas in the southeast. Nearly all areas of the southeast have the chance to see very heavy rain this week.

It is absolutely amazing to see a cold air damming event in August, and now we will wait and see if it happens. I definitely will not be complaining. I could use some cooler air.

Then the wild card, the possibility of a tropical storm developing in the gulf. If the storm is able to get its act together, it will provide very heavy rain for many locations in the southeast.

This meteorology student will definitely be watching this storm!

 

Major Rainfall Possible This Week

A large system could produce very heavy rain across North Carolina later this week.

This is the set-up: Another front is pushing its way towards the Carolinas. Showers and storms are possible Monday; however, the coverage will not be as great as later this week.

Tuesday is expected to be stormy across NC with the front in the area. A question mark remains for Wednesday, as a large complex of showers and storms could move to our south in South Carolina, which would rob moisture from North Carolina. We will need to watch to see where the complex of storms track to see if NC will be affected by the storm complex.

Once the complex of storm passes, we get a push of "cold" air from the north. The GFS model has temperatures reaching only 70° for many locations in NC, which is possible with high pressure pumping in cool dense air. The sky will be cloudy all day with the possibility of rain and drizzle all day Thursday.

By Friday and Saturday, showers and storms return to the area with the chance of heavy rain again. The major wrinkle in the forecast is the possibility of a tropical system moving up from the gulf. The GFS model shows the storm developing in the gulf and moving into the southeastern United States along the stalled front. This would provide very heavy rain for many locations in the southeast; however, we do not know if the storm will develop.

Still yet, heavy rain will be abundant in the southeast, and especially in North Carolina.

I am predicting 2-4 inches of rain for many locations this upcoming week, with some areas receiving major heavy rain in the southeast and in North Carolina. Some areas could receive up to 5-10 inches of rain where heavy storms train, but it is impossible to determine where these locations will set up.

I will continue to provide the latest information on this upcoming weather event through the week.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

RAH still talking CAD and lots of rain. Seems like Friday is the day:

 

<last part of long range discussion>

PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED
INVOF THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE COAST...LEAVING MUCH
OF CENTRAL NC DRY AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL NELY FLOW
WITH TEMPERATURES A GOOD 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND VERY
COMFORTABLE RH LEVELS FOR MID AUGUST.

BUT AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AND ON INTO THE WEEKEND...SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW
SEVERAL WAVES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW OVERRUNNING PRECIP
TO DEVELOP ATOP THE COOL AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN PLACE
OVER NC PIEDMONT WITH ENSUING CAD DEVELOPMENT AND LOW-LEVEL
FGEN RESPONSE LEADING TO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED AND/OR URBAN FLOODING.

SUCH A STRONG WARM SEASON CAD WILL ALSO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON
TEMPERATURES AS WELL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO TOP OUT
IN THE LOWER 70S...AND EVEN QUITE POSSIBLY UPPER 60S OVER THE NW
PIEDMONT...WHICH COULD THREATEN RECORD LO-MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
FOR NOW...WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE WITH FORECAST HIGHS. HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
 

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