Damage In Tolland Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 You've seen the euro ensembles huh? Life must be good when you have to pay thousands a month for it.Ive seen the Gefs and from what Will described they are quite a bit warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 2, 2013 Author Share Posted August 2, 2013 And the Euro ens have been bad this summer. they missed the hottest July ever..In fact they had a trough over us when we had the 7 day heat wave and ORH hit 90 + 4 days in a row lol.. We don't have much faith in those things anymore. The GEFS do show the warmth/dews coming back,,and they had a great July cool is that your forecast? You and Tip still are humping that the Euro and it's Ens were wrong with the pattern change. Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 cool is that your forecast? You and Tip still are humping that the Euro and it's Ens were wrong with the pattern change. Nope.Euro suite has had a rough summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 Ive seen the Gefs and from what Will described they are quite a bit warmer The 00z runs weren't all that different at 850mb other than typical nuances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 2, 2013 Author Share Posted August 2, 2013 11 day's since 90 degrees was on the board in the heart of summer. Comparable to 11 day's of 40's last week of Jan with low overnites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 Euro suite has had a rough summer. All models did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 2, 2013 Author Share Posted August 2, 2013 All models did.yep the retro pattern was badly handled. Since the change Euro is king. Where oh where has the WAR gone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 And the Euro ens have been bad this summer. they missed the hottest July ever..In fact they had a trough over us when we had the 7 day heat wave and ORH hit 90 + 4 days in a row lol.. We don't have much faith in those things anymore. The GEFS do show the warmth/dews coming back,,and they had a great July Wow talk about completely embellishing what each model suite did in July. Believe what you want, we'll see if we get extended wam/humid conditions back again. I say no. Not with this pattern. Maybe by the 20th of August its possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 No they don't. Other than a brief low going west with a period of srly winds before a fropa (which all models show), it's still AOB overall. I agree with Scooter, there looks like there may be a warm, muggy day ahead of the front passage Wed/Thur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 I agree with Scooter, there looks like there may be a warm, muggy day ahead of the front passage Wed/Thur. I'm sure they'll be a day or two where he will claim victory, but other than a low passing near or west, the overall pattern for now does not support sustained high dews for a while...I'm talking like U60s and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 I'm sure they'll be a day or two where he will claim victory, but other than a low passing near or west, the overall pattern for now does not support sustained high dews for a while...I'm talking like U60s and beyond. Yeah, anything meaningful in the DP category is >65F outside of storms. Going to be loving this pattern for outside work and activities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 I'm sure they'll be a day or two where he will claim victory, but other than a low passing near or west, the overall pattern for now does not support sustained high dews for a while...I'm talking like U60s and beyond. it's the same tired argument day after day--you do know he's trolling you right? He knows damn well there's no sustained heat/humdity for the next few weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 it's the same tired argument day after day--you do know he's trolling you right? He knows damn well there's no sustained heat/humdity for the next few weeksNo I'm not. I believe it comes back after the 13th, if you don't like it don't read it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 No I'm not. I believe it comes back after the 13th, if you don't like it don't read it These certainly don't agree with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 These certainly don't agree with you Impressive positive departures over the Yukon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 There is little support for any sustained heat for the next several weeks...sure mid month could change,but that's fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 Impressive positive departures over the Yukon! maybe Kev should go there for some heat and humidity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 There is little support for any sustained heat for the next several weeks...sure mid month could change,but that's fantasy land.Fantasy people live in fantasy lands, so perfect for each other! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 I'll weigh in to clarify the GEFS and Euro Ens output for blizz... Both have a mean trough axis in the Ohio Valley 11-15 day with no signs of blocking ending in NW Canada. Raw 2mT output is normal to 2 below in New England on both models averaged out through the period. Slightly drier than normal precip output on both as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 I'll weigh in to clarify the GEFS and Euro Ens output for blizz... Both have a mean trough axis in the Ohio Valley 11-15 day with no signs of blocking ending in NW Canada. Raw 2mT output is normal to 2 below in New England on both models averaged out through the period. Slightly drier than normal precip output on both as well. there could be some higher dews with the trough out there possiblity? Would think we'd have a S or SW flow here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 Awesome COC day today!!! 73.3/57 at noon. Just gorgeous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 there could be some higher dews with the trough out there possiblity? Would think we'd have a S or SW flow here.... You could argue the door is open there, coolest weather certainly seems centered in the Midwest and id assume some day to day variability around the mean composite I described obviously.. But I think will/scott 's points hold more weight in the persistence/lack there of for warm/humid anomalies in this pattern being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 Awesome COC day today!!! 73.3/57 at noon. Just gorgeous. One roll day here with 78/65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 One roll day here with 78/65 An hour later and sitting at 73.5/58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 This is interesting... En masse the ensemble mean from last night corrected down a tad, as it pertains to the NAO domain -- more neutral looking than positive. I did see the Euro ensemble mean through D10, and what they suggest is a +NAO, but an interesting east-base -EPO ridge situated over the NW Territories of Canada. That's a counter-acting signal there. The latter teleconnects to raising heights in the OV-MA-NE regions, while the former EPO favors drilling a cut-off into Lake Superior at some point or the other. I suppose we could do both and just end up with a screamingly anomalous fast flow at mid level from the OV to NE. ...This all nearing mid month. But, much of this is predicated on the assumption that those Euro means are right for D10 -- they could be over-playing the EPO contribution in all this, while down playing the NAO suggestion for more heights on the EC. Oy vay! It may be a deterministic grind for the next week. Either way, that mass field oscillating has been going on across the last week's worth of nightly GFS ensemble output, making it difficult to have much confidence in the magnitude of any warm signal. May be some big convection in that period of time if that fast flow verified and sneaking warm sectors got in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 Awesome COC day today!!! 73.3/57 at noon. Just gorgeous. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 2, 2013 Author Share Posted August 2, 2013 thinking Sept is above normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 Chamber of Commerce - COC It's a relaxation damn it, so relaxed it's a snoozer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 2, 2013 Author Share Posted August 2, 2013 Chamber of Commerce - COC It's a relaxation damn it, so relaxed it's a snoozer. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mACqcZZwG0k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 2, 2013 Share Posted August 2, 2013 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mACqcZZwG0k LOL http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOErZuzZpS8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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