Ginx snewx Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Try this again. Banter and weather discussion for the rest of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 16, 2013 Author Share Posted July 16, 2013 Sig trough with the WAR displaced east looks to allow more frequent air mass changes with the high heat banished south of NYC and confined to the Midwest, West. Days with easterly winds and rain will be below normal, days with SW winds will have higher than normal lows. On average after the heat breaks the next 10 days leading into August should average aobn. My thoughts JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Would like to believe recent gfs runs, which follow the nice Sun-Mon cooldown (maybe some upper 40s at my place?) with a week of somewhat below avg temps for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 The big question is does the WAR rear it's head in august/sept and bring back the heat/humidity and open the door for tropical threats/remnants with big rains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 As mets have discussed Theres not a pattern chance. Ensembles say we go right back to 78-84 wx with dews at or above 70 like we had before big heat with no fropas as WAR holds strong in south flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 As mets have discussed Theres not a pattern chance. Ensembles say we go right back to 78-84 wx with dews at or above 70 like we had before big heat with no fropas as WAR holds strong in south flow if it's in the 90s for 5-7 days...and then drops to the 70s and 80s...how is that not different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 if it's in the 90s for 5-7 days...and then drops to the 70s and 80s...how is that not different?Its different in that high temps are cooler. We've all agreed this is the hottest wx of summer, but another long period of wet, moist south flow wx isn't a pattern change. A pattern change would be if we had frequent fronts and NW flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Its different in that high temps are cooler. We've all agreed this is the hottest wx of summer, but another long period of wet, moist south flow wx isn't a pattern change. A pattern change would be if we had frequent fronts and NW flow Agree. Going back to 84/70 is not really a pattern change from what we've had for almost a month now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Its different in that high temps are cooler. We've all agreed this is the hottest wx of summer, but another long period of wet, moist south flow wx isn't a pattern change. A pattern change would be if we had frequent fronts and NW flow sure it's a change. we don't have moist southerly flow right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 sure it's a change. we don't have moist southerly flow right now.Have we had high dews for just about a month now? A pattern change would be to lose that and go into dry continental flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Northerly winds are making today feel more comfortable but the dews are going to be back with a vengence in the next few days. Regarding the pattern change, the 6Z GFS verbatim is far better than what we're seeing now even if it isn't a huge change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Are we really going back into high dewpoints next week? I don't really see it unless I'm missing something. The weekend post-FROPA and most of next week looks a lot different than what we've had. Perhaps well beyond that we return to more humid conditions, but through late next week, it doesn't look like that...maybe for a day or so if we get a weak low to our west, but it could easily be south of us too. The WAR is shoved way east compared to the last several weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Have we had high dews for just about a month now? A pattern change would be to lose that and go into dry continental flow we've got dry continental flow right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 16, 2013 Author Share Posted July 16, 2013 Have we had high dews for just about a month now? A pattern change would be to lose that and go into dry continental flowIs the Bermuda high in the same place? Is the trough deeper? Is the Midwest ridge father west? Looks different to me. We disagree and not all mets agree with you as you imply. If I am wrong I will fully admit it but I say the ten day period from 7/21-8/1 is aobn with no high heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 we've got dry continental flow right nowWe do? Fresh clean CP air with frequent fronts ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 We do? Fresh clean CP air with frequent fronts ? nice try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Is the Bermuda high in the same place? Is the trough deeper? Is the Midwest ridge father west? Looks different to me. We disagree and not all mets agree with you as you imply. If I am wrong I will fully admit it but I say the ten day period from 7/21-8/1 is aobn with no high heat. he's drunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 We do? Fresh clean CP air with frequent fronts ?Northerly winds FTW, albeit very temporary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Is the Bermuda high in the same place? Is the trough deeper? Is the Midwest ridge father west? Looks different to me. We disagree and not all mets agree with you as you imply. If I am wrong I will fully admit it but I say the ten day period from 7/21-8/1 is aobn with no high /quote]I agree no high heat, but we go right back to south flow after a 1-2 day break early next week as the trough again digs over Midwest leaving us on east side with moist flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Northerly winds FTW, albeit very temporary. north/northwesterly flow from just about the surface to 300 mbs today. no deep moist southerly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Looking forward to Sunday and beyond. Next week was/is about where front stalls and looks like it stalls south for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Looking forward to Sunday and beyond. Next week was/is about where front stalls and looks like it stalls south for a time. nope. no fronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Looking forward to Sunday and beyond. Next week was/is about where front stalls and looks like it stalls south for a time.Does that mean pattern change and dry flow or does that mean onshore flow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 16, 2013 Author Share Posted July 16, 2013 north/northwesterly flow from just about the surface to 300 mbs today. no deep moist southerly flow.very noticeable this morning while I was working outside. I was dieing yesterday. Getting hot now but not the life sucking hot like yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Are we really going back into high dewpoints next week? I don't really see it unless I'm missing something. The weekend post-FROPA and most of next week looks a lot different than what we've had. Perhaps well beyond that we return to more humid conditions, but through late next week, it doesn't look like that...maybe for a day or so if we get a weak low to our west, but it could easily be south of us too. The WAR is shoved way east compared to the last several weeks. You know how this game works... hype the dews if you can't hype the heat. No pattern change until October when the brain switches to cold/snow. I would consider this a different pattern than what we had...less humidity and higher heat and WNW flow right now. Then it'll switch again come Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Does that mean pattern change and dry flow or does that mean onshore flow? either one would be different from what's happening now. lol that's a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 16, 2013 Author Share Posted July 16, 2013 The biggest difference from yesterday to today is that the shade is providing relief, the mank was everywhere yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Does that mean pattern change and dry flow or does that mean onshore flow? I think onshore flow, but it may be more E-NE. Sure maybe dewpoints may be in the low to mid 60s on the south coast, but that's a change. Period. Ridge is replaced with trough. To be honest, speculating dewpoints that far out is as bad as discussing lapse rates on a faux severe event 7 days out. My guess is we return to srly flow again, but then looks like another trough moves in during the 11-15 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 Does that mean pattern change and dry flow or does that mean onshore flow? You do realize we have a N/NW flow right now, right? Tomorrow its also NW flow... So how would an onshore easterly flow or a southerly flow not be a change? This is the 12z initialization today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 16, 2013 Share Posted July 16, 2013 I think onshore flow, but it may be more E-NE. Sure maybe dewpoints may be in the low to mid 60s on the south coast, but that's a change. Period. Ridge is replaced with trough. To be honest, speculating dewpoints that far out is as bad as discussing lapse rates on a faux severe event 7 days out. My guess is we return to srly flow again, but then looks like another trough moves in during the 11-15 day. somehow 82/66 is the same as 93/72. not sure how...but somehow it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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