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The Big Wet of 2013


Wow

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Not sure if the GFS is onto something or onto a big bust. Looking at tonights GFS model everthing misses the mountains and hits the foothills or hits GA,AL, and TN. It looks like the mountains do not even get an inch of rainfall through the 4th. This would be a good thing for outdoor activities and a big win by the GFS if this was right.

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GSP taking no chances with flooding and pulling a watch for just about everyone.

 

RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...
BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...
BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...SHELBY...LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...
LAKE LURE...RUTHERFORD...COLUMBUS...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...
GAFFNEY...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...GREENWOOD
340 AM EDT TUE JUL 2 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA...
  NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA...ELBERT...FRANKLIN...
  HABERSHAM...HART...RABUN AND STEPHENS. IN NORTH CAROLINA...
  ALEXANDER...AVERY...BURKE MOUNTAINS...BUNCOMBE...CALDWELL
  MOUNTAINS...CLEVELAND...EASTERN MCDOWELL...EASTERN POLK...
  GREATER BURKE...GREATER CALDWELL...GREATER RUTHERFORD...
  GRAHAM...HAYWOOD...HENDERSON...MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS...MACON...
  MADISON...MITCHELL...NORTHERN JACKSON...POLK MOUNTAINS...
  RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN JACKSON...SWAIN...
  TRANSYLVANIA AND YANCEY. IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...
  ABBEVILLE...ANDERSON...CHEROKEE...GREATER GREENVILLE...
  GREATER OCONEE...GREATER PICKENS...GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS...
  GREENWOOD...LAURENS...OCONEE MOUNTAINS...PICKENS MOUNTAINS...
  SPARTANBURG AND UNION SC.

* FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* GENERALLY 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WATCH
  AREA...WITH THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

* THE HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN RAPID RISES ON CREEKS AND
  STREAMS THAT WILL PUSH SOME OF THEM OUT OF THEIR BANKS. URBAN
  FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CHARLOTTE.

 

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Looking at the setup alone, and ignoring the model QPF for the moment, this event looks amazing synoptically; potentially even historic.  The area will be near or under the 250mb jet entrance region, combined with increasing southerly flow, orthogonally aimed into the Apps (today is 10kt, but this increases to 35kt by Thursday).  Model precipitable water values are 1.50-2.00" across the area through Friday before the Bermuda High shoves the moisture plume WEST into the Tennessee and Ohio Valley.

 

The ingredients are there for heavy rain, based on upslope potential alone and existing incredibly deep moisture supply.  Throw in the jet dynamics and lobes of vorticity rotating around the big upper low out west and this only adds to the forcing.  By Thursday, the flow from 850mb to 250mb becomes vertically stacked, from the Gulf of Mexico straight into the western Carolina's.  Even the smallest showers on radar will be torrential downpours.  If what we had last night is any indication (and it isn't since our PWATs were low yesterday), this could be a very busy 48-72 hours for the mountains of western North Carolina.

 

QPF amounts will vary considerably across the high terrain.  The GFS is notorious at always underdoing upslope events (whether NW flow snow, or southerly rains).  The NAM should have this modeled better, but given the blocking pattern we are in, it is too quick moving the precip out on Friday morning.  Even then its QPF is too low as well.  Simply by accounting for all the above ingredients, it is a wonder why the models are too "dry."

 

Parts of the southern escarpment already received 2-3" last night, and the same occurred near the TN line yesterday too.  Area average was .75-1.50".  NO MODEL caught onto these amounts!!

 

So it seems likely that model QPF should be doubled, for area-averaged amounts of 3-5" in the next 72 hours.  Some spots will undoubtedly see 6-10".

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Excellent analysis...as you stated, the synoptic setup is amazing and something that is rarely seen in our area. And to add the time of year this is occurring is equally as amazing. To me this is something that you would more likely see late summer/early fall.

Looking at the setup alone, and ignoring the model QPF for the moment, this event looks amazing synoptically; potentially even historic.  The area will be near or under the 250mb jet entrance region, combined with increasing southerly flow, orthogonally aimed into the Apps (today is 10kt, but this increases to 35kt by Thursday).  Model precipitable water values are 1.50-2.00" across the area through Friday before the Bermuda High shoves the moisture plume WEST into the Tennessee and Ohio Valley.

 

The ingredients are there for heavy rain, based on upslope potential alone and existing incredibly deep moisture supply.  Throw in the jet dynamics and lobes of vorticity rotating around the big upper low out west and this only adds to the forcing.  By Thursday, the flow from 850mb to 250mb becomes vertically stacked, from the Gulf of Mexico straight into the western Carolina's.  Even the smallest showers on radar will be torrential downpours.  If what we had last night is any indication (and it isn't since our PWATs were low yesterday), this could be a very busy 48-72 hours for the mountains of western North Carolina.

 

QPF amounts will vary considerably across the high terrain.  The GFS is notorious at always underdoing upslope events (whether NW flow snow, or southerly rains).  The NAM should have this modeled better, but given the blocking pattern we are in, it is too quick moving the precip out on Friday morning.  Even then its QPF is too low as well.  Simply by accounting for all the above ingredients, it is a wonder why the models are too "dry."

 

Parts of the southern escarpment already received 2-3" last night, and the same occurred near the TN line yesterday too.  Area average was .75-1.50".  NO MODEL caught onto these amounts!!

 

So it seems likely that model QPF should be doubled, for area-averaged amounts of 3-5" in the next 72 hours.  Some spots will undoubtedly see 6-10".

 

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Thanks. Im hoping my rain shield will kick in and shift this stuff to the east. It was supposed to rain up here in Northern VA the last 3 days and have had 1 light shower so far.

Like Hurricane Tracker said, the waterfalls should be roaring with life if the trails arent to muddy. Hope to get to Mt Mitchell, but Im feeling it will likely be in the clouds and fog the whole weekend :(

 

If it is not already on the agenda, I would highly recommend checking out the waterfalls at Dupont State Forest; with this rain they should be incredible.  See Rainforrest's totals above and it is far from over.

 

FYI, article in today's Asheville Citizen-Times about new bridge at Hooker Fall's parking area and new visitor center:

 

http://www.citizen-times.com/article/20130702/OUTDOORS/307020010/Bridge-makes-DuPont-safer

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havent posted much as been swamped at work (a good thing) and saw the large area of flood watches and figured its time to check in lol.  honestly do not know the exact amount (gauge has overflowed) but i do know we had over a foot of rain here last month!  it has been amazingly wet - and things are about as lush as you can get.

 

will be interesting to see how the storms shape up the next couple of days.  have had a few occasions where training set up over mby and it stormed for a good 4-6 hours :)

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If I recall correctly I remember having an event last year with a tropical flow.  We picked up several inches of rain over a week or so.  I remember the air being very clear so you could see the thunderheads in amazing clarity.  

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It appears that the band of rain over the foothills and mountains is finally starting to slide eastward. Tomorrow looks like a soaker.

It's been absolutely pouring at my house for the last hour. I'm in downtown Raleigh, under the yellow reflectivity on the radar, and it's coming down good. My house has been under orange and red for the better part of an hour, and there's still plenty more to come. Pipeline from GA up through SC to NC looks locked and loaded. I will be surprised if we don't see any flash flood warnings today.

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It's been absolutely pouring at my house for the last hour. I'm in downtown Raleigh, under the yellow reflectivity on the radar, and it's coming down good. My house has been under orange and red for the better part of an hour, and there's still plenty more to come. Pipeline from GA up through SC to NC looks locked and loaded. I will be surprised if we don't see any flash flood warnings today.

It is always amazing to me how different things can be one state over, lol....or half a state up.   I've had less than an inch total in the last 13 days.  Not quite the drought returning but not far off :)  I hope that high can find it's retrograde gear, and move the train you are under.  The train of nothing I've got is getting very old.    And I knew putting out that grass seed was the kiss of death, but I went ahead and did it anyway :)   T

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The Charlotte area has been in a relative minimum for two days now, with heavier rains in the mountains/foothills and also out to the east toward Raleigh/coastal plain. Still waiting on the heavy rain. Appears the 12z GFS backed way off from its heavy rain prediction for the Piedmont. 

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It is always amazing to me how different things can be one state over, lol....or half a state up. I've had less than an inch total in the last 13 days. Not quite the drought returning but not far off :) I hope that high can find it's retrograde gear, and move the train you are under. The train of nothing I've got is getting very old. And I knew putting out that grass seed was the kiss of death, but I went ahead and did it anyway :) T

Don't worry. I have had heavy rain in the forecast for the past 4 days and with PWs near 2.25 and we have barely seen anything. Our total is 0.15 from the past four days with 0.11 of that today.
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It is always amazing to me how different things can be one state over, lol....or half a state up. I've had less than an inch total in the last 13 days. Not quite the drought returning but not far off :) I hope that high can find it's retrograde gear, and move the train you are under. The train of nothing I've got is getting very old. And I knew putting out that grass seed was the kiss of death, but I went ahead and did it anyway :) T

Well at least I know now that I'm not the only one who has been dry lately. I don't think it's rained here in at least a week. Hopefully the rain moves west in the next few days and we can get in on some of the action.

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It is always amazing to me how different things can be one state over, lol....or half a state up. I've had less than an inch total in the last 13 days. Not quite the drought returning but not far off :) I hope that high can find it's retrograde gear, and move the train you are under. The train of nothing I've got is getting very old. And I knew putting out that grass seed was the kiss of death, but I went ahead and did it anyway :) T

I think you'll get in on some of the action very soon. Planting that grass seed was the worst thing you could have done. What were you thinking??! :)

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1.01" fell yesterday, nearly equal parts from a rogue cluster of training thunderstorms in the afternoon and an area of moderate rain that moved through later. 

 

The temperature did not crack 80 yesterday IMBY; in fact, after the early thunderstorms moved out, it hovered near 70 for the remainder of the evening. July, Shmuly. (Not that I'm complaining.)

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79 and sunny. How often is it 79 and sunny at 1pm in the hottest month of the year, especially down here? Temps probably about to shoot up though to mid to upper 80s with this significant break in clouds. It should be enough to destabilize the area and allow for some thunderstorm development.

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79 and sunny. How often is it 79 and sunny at 1pm in the hottest month of the year, especially down here? Temps probably about to shoot up though to mid to upper 80s with this significant break in clouds. It should be enough to destabilize the area and allow for some thunderstorm development.

79 and sunny, but what is the dewpoint ? 75? It doesn't exactly feel like fall lol.
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Don't worry. I have had heavy rain in the forecast for the past 4 days and with PWs near 2.25 and we have barely seen anything. Our total is 0.15 from the past four days with 0.11 of that today.

Thanks for the effort, Mr. Metallic, but just how am I supposed to not worry and be comforted?  Misery loves company? lol :)  T

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79 and sunny, but what is the dewpoint ? 75? It doesn't exactly feel like fall lol.

You are right about feel, but if I'd been known in Feb that July 2nd I'd be at 81 close to 2pm with the sun out, I'd have been more than happy for a double shot of humid as the catch :)

 

 

But, CR, the tv guys said it would rain and rain, when I put the seed out.  I guess, except for CandyMan, you can't trust the tv guys when it comes to putting out seed :)  And I couldn't ask CMan because he was buried in sand somewhere, lol.   Now they assure me the high will retrograde and the train will enter N Ga. but the maps show above Atl, and east of Covington, so I fear I'll be in the same play again tomorrow and the 4th.  T

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